29 PIM in 8 games benched Zadorov. His agent agreed with a fan about Toronto
Our take Boston proved they can win without him
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Denver
ColoradovsDallas Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars · hockey prediction
Score
2:3 SO
Date · UK
15 OCT
Local time
18:30 · 14 OCT
City
Denver
Status
Full time
COL2:3DALFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Colorado vs Dallas?
Our Avalanche vs Stars prediction: Colorado win the rematch at Ball Arena, 4:2. The Colorado Avalanche won 3:2 in Dallas on Tuesday without Cale Makar, and now host the Dallas Stars on the second night of a back-to-back for both teams. Dallas are without Wyatt Johnston (illness, did not travel) and Matt Duchene. The line makes Colorado 58% favourites; our pick is Colorado to win, overtime included, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:2
- Our estimate
- 59–62%
- Market
- Colorado win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.64
Colorado vs Dallas at a glance
| Match | Colorado Avalanche vs Dallas Stars |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 15 OCT · 01:30 UK |
| Venue | Ball Arena, Denver |
| Our pick | Colorado win · incl. OT · 1.64 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 59–62% |
| Predicted score | 4:2 |
| Main reason | We think Colorado take this one too: they won in Dallas on Tuesday without Makar, and tonight they are at home against a team missing two centres, Johnston and Duchene. |
No. 04 · Form
Colorado vs Dallas: recent form
Colorado 3-2 in their last 5. Dallas 2-3.
- Colorado
- Won 3:2 in Dallas on Tue 13 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 1,066 km flight to Denver · fourth game in seven days
- Dallas
- Lost 2:3 at home to Colorado on Tue 13 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 1,066 km flight to Denver
Colorado3-2
- Winvs Dallas3:2
- Lossvs Toronto3:6
- Winvs Calgary7:3
- Lossvs Winnipeg2:3
- Winvs St. Louis6:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 4.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Dallas2-3
- Lossvs Colorado2:3
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Pittsburgh1:2 SO
- Winvs Buffalo4:0
- Winvs San Jose5:0
- Lossvs Nashville1:2
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.60
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 1.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 0%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Key factColorado are 3-2 in their last five with 21 goals for and 15 against, including 7:3 in Calgary and 3:2 in Dallas on Tuesday. Dallas are 2-3 in the same stretch: two shutouts, 5:0 against San Jose and 4:0 in Buffalo, but only one or two goals in each of their three defeats, the last of them 2:3 to Colorado.
| Attack & defence | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 4-2-0 | 2-3-1 |
| Points % | 66.7% | 41.7% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.67 | +0.33 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 31.2 | 25.0 |
| Shots against | 25.7 | 22.5 |
| Special teams | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 23.8% | 14.3% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 80.0% | 85.0% |
| Last season | COL | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 55-16-11 | 50-20-12 |
| Points % | 73.8% | 68.3% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.21 | +0.65 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 33.7 | 25.3 |
| Shots against | 26.1 | 26.2 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 17.1% | 28.6% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 84.6% | 80.3% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Colorado vs Dallas: starting goalies and team news
Backup goalies expected for both; Dallas without Johnston and Duchene.
ColoradoExpected
Scott Wedgewood- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .897
- Starts
- 1
- SV% last season
- .921
DallasExpected
Casey DeSmith- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .923
- Starts
- 1
- SV% last season
- .907
Colorado
- DoubtCale MakarPersonal reasons, missed the game on 13 Oct; status for Wednesday unclear
- DoubtZachary L'HeureuxUpper body, did not play on 13 Oct
- DoubtLogan O'ConnorLower body, day-to-day; has not played this season
Dallas
- OutWyatt JohnstonIllness, did not travel to Denver
- OutMatt DucheneSurgery, out about three months
TacticsNeither starter is confirmed. Daily Faceoff lists Mackenzie Blackwood and Jake Oettinger as unconfirmed, but both played on Tuesday (Blackwood stopped 24 of 26, Oettinger 22 of 25), so on the second night we expect the backups: Scott Wedgewood for Colorado (.921 in 43 starts last season) and Casey DeSmith for Dallas (.907 in 28). Cale Makar missed Tuesday's game for personal reasons and is unclear for Wednesday; Zachary L'Heureux (upper body) did not play on Tuesday. For Dallas, Wyatt Johnston did not travel to Denver with an illness, and Matt Duchene is out for about three months after surgery. Colorado's top line is Artturi Lehkonen, Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas; Dallas start Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz and Jamie Benn. Checked at about 04:50 UTC on 14 Oct.
In the news
Hintz bloodied MacKinnon in his first NHL fight. Tonight they meet again in Denver
Our take Dallas need goals tonight, not revenge
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Colorado vs Dallas?
The one model we found rates Colorado higher than the line does.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Colorado 62.5%, projected 3.68 to 2.57 | Same side |
Our positionDRatings has Colorado five points above the line (62.5% against 57.6%), with goalies still unknown. Our numbers point the same way: Colorado take 31.2 shots a game this season to Dallas' 25.0. We expect a two-goal Colorado win.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Colorado vs Dallas predicted score
Colorado's shot volume against a Dallas side missing two centres.
4:2 to Colorado is our main score: Colorado outshoot Dallas, as they have all season, Wedgewood holds up as he did last season, and Dallas, without Johnston and Duchene, get little from their second and third lines. The last goal may go into an empty net. 2:3 to Dallas is the alternative, after overtime or in a 2:1: DeSmith steals the game the way Oettinger has in October, the Dallas power play (28.6% last season) scores, and Colorado miss Makar from the blue line. Colorado to win, overtime included, comes in with 4:2, 3:1 or 3:2 in any form and loses with any Dallas win.
- Predicted score
- 4:2
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
COL
DAL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Colorado vs Dallas pick: Colorado win · incl. OT
Colorado win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Colorado take this one too: they won in Dallas on Tuesday without Makar, and tonight they are at home against a team missing two centres, Johnston and Duchene. The shot count over the season speaks for itself, 31 to 25, and Wedgewood, Colorado's backup, saved .921 last season. Dallas rely on their goalies, and holding off MacKinnon and Necas for a second straight night with DeSmith in net is a harder job. We expect 4:2.
Our probability59–62%
Our pickColorado win · incl. OT
Odds1.64
Main scenario4:2
- Our scenario
- 4:2alternative 2:3
What would change our mind News that Johnston will play for Dallas after all, together with Makar out again for Colorado: then we would expect an even game and look at Dallas +1.5.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado win · incl. OT | 1.64 | 61% |
| Dallas win · incl. OT | 2.23 | 44.8% |
| Colorado win in 60 min | 2.13 | 46.9% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.13 | 24.2% |
| Dallas win in 60 min | 2.88 | 34.7% |
| Dallas +1.5 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Colorado −1.5 | 2.61 | 38.3% |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.75 | 57.1% |
| Under 5.5 goals | 2.08 | 48.1% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Makar may miss a second straight game, and without him Colorado are weaker on the power play and in breaking out of their own zone.
- Dallas concede little: 7 goals in their last five games, with Miro Heiskanen and Esa Lindell on the blue line, so the game could be tight and reach overtime.
- Neither goalie is confirmed; if Colorado go back to Blackwood (.879 this season), the goalie gap we expect shrinks.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Colorado win · incl. OT at 1.64 · analysis only. We expect 4:2, but with both goalies unconfirmed and Makar unclear we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Colorado win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:2Colorado win · incl. OT at 1.64
- Happened
- 2:3Dallas win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.