Tocchet says the Flyers rush. Ten goals in eight games say he is right
Our take Patience, not panic, is the Flyers' missing skill
Detroit host Seattle with John Gibson confirmed in goal and shot numbers better than their 1-2-0 record: 31.3 shots a game for, 24.3 against. Seattle arrive without defenceman Ryan Lindgren. We back the Red Wings to win, overtime and shootout included.
| Match | Detroit Red Wings vs Seattle Kraken |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 00:00 UK |
| Venue | Little Caesars Arena, Detroit |
| Our pick | Detroit win · incl. OT · 1.70 · bet |
| Our estimate | 58–62% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | We think Detroit win this game. |
Detroit 1-2 in their last 3. Seattle 2-2.
| Attack & defence | DET | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 1-2-0 | 2-2-0 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 2.33 | 3.75 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 2.67 | 2.75 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 31.3 | 26.5 |
| Shots against | 24.3 | 28.0 |
| Special teams | DET | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 61.5% | 72.7% |
| Faceoff % | 53.6% | 49.6% |
NHL 2026-27, 3 and 4 games · NHL stats
Gibson is confirmed for Detroit; Daccord is expected for Seattle.
Our take Patience, not panic, is the Flyers' missing skill
Both previews we found pick Detroit.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Detroit 58.5%, projected 3.41 to 2.49 | Same side |
| Sportsgambler | Detroit to win, predicted 4:3 | Same side |
Detroit control the shots and win a close game.
3:2 is our main score. 4:2 with a late empty-net goal is the alternative; a win in overtime or a shootout also wins this pick. Any Seattle win, overtime included, loses it.
Detroit win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
We think Detroit win this game. They outshoot opponents by seven a game, and both defeats were close games. Seattle finished 27th last season, have lost their last four meetings with Detroit and arrive after a cross-country flight without Lindgren. With Gibson confirmed, we expect Detroit to play the game in Seattle's end and close it out.
What would change our mind Gibson not starting after the warm-up, or another top-six forward such as Larkin, DeBrincat or Raymond dropping out.
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit win · incl. OT | 1.70 | 58.8% |
| Seattle win · incl. OT | 2.19 | 45.7% |
Odds snapshot 9 OCT 10:29 · no bookmaker names
Why this could go wrong.
Bet Detroit win · incl. OT at 1.70, a single.
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.