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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · New York

NY RangersvsVancouver New York Rangers vs Vancouver Canucks · hockey prediction

Score
6:2
Date · UK
11 OCT
Local time
18:00 · 11 OCT
City
New York
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win NY Rangers vs Vancouver?

Our Rangers vs Canucks prediction: New York win 4:2 at Madison Square Garden, and our pick is Over 5.5 goals, overtime included, as analysis only. Igor Shesterkin is out for the season, so Dylan Garand, with four NHL starts, is confirmed in goal. Vancouver play the second night of a back-to-back after a 1:4 loss in New Jersey, and their penalty kill has stopped only 52.2% of power plays this season.

Predicted score · alt 2:3
4:2
Our estimate
53–57%
Over 5.5 goals · odds 1.68Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Over 5.5 goals
Price now
1.68

NY Rangers vs Vancouver at a glance

MatchNew York Rangers vs Vancouver Canucks
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off11 OCT · 23:00 UK
VenueMadison Square Garden, New York
Our pickOver 5.5 goals · 1.68 · analysis only
Our estimate53–57%
Predicted score4:2
No. 04 · Form

NY Rangers vs Vancouver: recent form

NY Rangers 4-1 in their last 5. Vancouver 1-4.

NY Rangers
Lost in Washington on Fri 9 Oct · two days of rest · first home game after a short trip
Vancouver
Lost in New Jersey on Sat 10 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · third straight road game, short trip from Newark
NY Rangers4-1
  • Lossvs Washington1:3
  • Winvs NY Islanders5:2
  • Winvs Utah4:2
  • Winvs Detroit2:0
  • Winvs Tampa Bay5:1
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.40
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
1.60
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Vancouver1-4
  • Lossvs New Jersey1:4
  • Lossvs Carolina2:7
  • Lossvs Vegas2:3
  • Winvs Calgary4:1
  • Lossvs Edmonton7:9
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
4.80
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Key factThe Rangers are 4-2-0 and allow 24.2 shots a game, but all of that came with Shesterkin in goal. Vancouver are 2-4-0, have lost their last two games by three and five goals, allow 31.7 shots a game and have killed only 52.2% of penalties.
Attack & defenceNYRVAN
Wins and losses.4-2-02-4-0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.2.833.67
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.1.834.83
Shots on goal per game.23.022.0
Shots against24.231.7
Special teamsNYRVAN
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.23.5%20.0%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.89.5%52.2%
Last seasonNYRVAN
Wins and losses.34-39-925-49-8
Points %47.0%35.4%
Goal difference per game-0.15-1.22
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.24.7%21.8%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.79.9%71.5%

NHL 2026-27, 6 games each; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

NY Rangers vs Vancouver: starting goalies and team news

Garand is confirmed for the Rangers; Lankinen is likely for Vancouver.

NY RangersConfirmed
Dylan Garand
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.971
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
0.67
Wins and losses.
1-1-0
Daily Faceoff: confirmed by Rangers reporter Peter Baugh at 15:20 UTC on 11 Oct; Spencer Martin recalled from Hartford as backup (NHL.com)
VancouverExpected
Kevin Lankinen
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.783
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
7.15
Wins and losses.
1-4-0
Daily Faceoff: likely at 14:08 UTC on 11 Oct, first goalie off the ice at the morning skate (Thomas Drance)
NY Rangers
  • OutIgor ShesterkinLower body, out for the season
  • OutJoonas KorpisaloLower body, injured reserve
  • OutJoe VelenoLower body, injured reserve
Vancouver
  • OutThatcher DemkoHip surgery, injured reserve
  • OutFilip ChytilShoulder, injured reserve
TacticsRangers reporter Peter Baugh confirmed that Dylan Garand (1-1-0, .971) will start, according to Daily Faceoff. Shesterkin is out for the season and Joonas Korpisalo is on injured reserve, so Spencer Martin was recalled from Hartford as the backup (NHL.com). Kevin Lankinen (1-4-0, .783) was the first goalie off the ice at Vancouver's morning skate and is listed as likely; Leevi Meriläinen played in New Jersey on Saturday. Vancouver are without Thatcher Demko (hip) and Filip Chytil (shoulder); Joe Veleno is also out for New York.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in NY Rangers vs Vancouver?

Both previews we checked pick the Rangers and expect six goals or more.

SourcePick
DRatingsRangers 69.6%, projected 3.77 to 2.40
SportsgamblerRangers −1.5, predicted 6:3
Our positionWe also expect a Rangers win, but we will not back a team whose goalie has four NHL starts. What the two previews agree on is goals: DRatings projects 6.17 in total and Sportsgambler 6:3, and so our pick is the total, not the winner.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

NY Rangers vs Vancouver predicted score

A rested Rangers team against a tired Vancouver.

4:2 to the Rangers is our main score: their power play (23.5%) meets a Vancouver penalty kill at 52.2%, Vancouver tire on the second night, and a late empty-net goal makes it six. 2:3 to Vancouver after overtime is the alternative if Garand gives up soft goals early. Six goals or more, overtime and the shootout goal included, wins our pick: 4:2, 5:2, 4:3, or 3:3 decided after overtime. Five or fewer loses it: 3:1, 3:2, 2:1, or 2:2 decided after overtime.

Predicted score
4:2
Alternative
2:3
Your score
NYR4
VAN2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our NY Rangers vs Vancouver pick: Over 5.5 goals

Over 5.5 goals: why this pick wins

Our probability53–57%
Our pickOver 5.5 goals
Odds1.68
Main scenario4:2
Wins with
4:24:35:22:45:36:3…
Loses with
3:23:12:12:34:11:2…
Our scenario
4:2alternative 2:3

What would change our mind A change in goal before the warm-up, or news that Vancouver rest regulars on the second night of the back-to-back, would make a tight, low-scoring game more likely.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Over 5.5 goals1.6859.5%
Under 5.5 goals2.2045.5%
NY Rangers win · incl. OT1.3673.5%
Vancouver win · incl. OT3.2231.1%
NY Rangers −1.51.9451.5%
Vancouver +1.51.8853.2%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 18:04 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. Vancouver have scored two goals or fewer in three of their last four games, and on the second night of a back-to-back they may score even less.
  2. Garand has stopped 97.1% of shots this season, and the Rangers allow only 24.2 shots a game.
  3. Only three of each team's six games this season had six goals or more.
  4. A routine 3:1 or 3:2 Rangers win, without an empty-net goal, loses this pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Over 5.5 goals at 1.68 · analysis only, no bet: we expect the Rangers to win, but with a goalie who has four NHL starts we call the goals, not the winner.

Market
Over 5.5 goals
Odds
1.68
Published
11 OCT 18:01
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
4:2Over 5.5 goals at 1.68
Happened
6:2NY Rangers win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

Read next

    FAQ

    What does Analysis mean?

    Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.