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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Tampa

Tampa BayvsSeattle Tampa Bay Lightning vs Seattle Kraken · hockey prediction

Score
4:3 OT
Date · UK
16 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 15 OCT
City
Tampa
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Tampa Bay vs Seattle?

Our Lightning vs Kraken prediction: the Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Seattle Kraken 4:2 at Benchmark International Arena, inside 60 minutes. Last season Tampa Bay took 64.6% of the points with a goal difference of +0.72 a game; Seattle took 48.2% at -0.45. Seattle are 5-2-0 but play their fourth straight road game. Our pick is Tampa Bay to win in regulation, as analysis only. Andrei Vasilevskiy and Joey Daccord are the expected goalies, neither confirmed yet.

Predicted score · alt 3:2
4:2
Our estimate
55–58%
Tampa Bay win in 60 min · odds 1.69Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Tampa Bay win in 60 min
Price now
1.69

Tampa Bay vs Seattle at a glance

MatchTampa Bay Lightning vs Seattle Kraken
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off16 OCT · 00:00 UK
VenueBenchmark International Arena, Tampa
Our pickTampa Bay win in 60 min · 1.69 · analysis only
Our estimate55–58%
Predicted score4:2
Main reasonLast season Tampa Bay took 64.6% of the points with a goal difference of +0.72 a game; Seattle took 48.2% at -0.45.
No. 04 · Form

Tampa Bay vs Seattle: recent form

Tampa Bay 4-1 in their last 5. Seattle 4-1.

Tampa Bay
Lost 1:4 to the Rangers in New York on Tue 13 Oct · two days of rest · 1620 km flight home
Seattle
Won 3:2 in a shootout in Philadelphia on Tue 13 Oct · two days of rest · 1488 km to Tampa · fourth straight road game
Tampa Bay4-1
  • Lossvs NY Rangers1:4
  • Winvs NY Islanders5:3
  • Winvs Minnesota3:2
  • Winvs Philadelphia4:1
  • Winvs Washington3:1
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.20
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
20%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Seattle4-1
  • Win in overtime or shootoutvs Philadelphia3:2 SO
  • Winvs Washington5:3
  • Winvs Detroit6:3
  • Lossvs Vegas2:6
  • Winvs Calgary6:1
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
4.40
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
3.00
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
80%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
20%
Key factTampa Bay won four straight, 3:1 against Washington, 4:1 against Philadelphia, 3:2 against Minnesota and 5:3 at the Islanders, before a 1:4 loss at the Rangers on Tuesday. Seattle have won four of their last five: 6:1 at home to Calgary, a 2:6 home loss to Vegas, then 6:3 in Detroit, 5:3 in Washington and 3:2 in a shootout in Philadelphia on Tuesday. Seattle score 4.14 goals a game, but they are outshot 26.9 to 30.6.
Attack & defenceTBLSEA
Wins and losses.4-2-05-2-0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.2.834.14
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.2.672.71
Shots on goal per game.29.526.9
Shots against23.830.6
Special teamsTBLSEA
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.8.3%22.7%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.80.0%78.9%
Last seasonTBLSEA
Wins and losses.50-26-634-37-11
Points %64.6%48.2%
Goal difference per game+0.72-0.45
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.20.7%19.5%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.82.6%72.2%

NHL 2026-27, 6 and 7 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Tampa Bay vs Seattle: starting goalies and team news

Vasilevskiy and Daccord expected; neither is confirmed yet.

Tampa BayExpected
Andrei Vasilevskiy
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.886
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
2.45
Wins and losses.
3-2-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:24 UTC on 15 Oct, before the morning skate; Tampa Bay's No. 1, started five of six games
SeattleExpected
Joey Daccord
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.913
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
2.73
Wins and losses.
3-1-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:24 UTC on 15 Oct, before the morning skate; Philipp Grubauer started in Philadelphia on 13 Oct
Tampa Bay
  • OutYanni GourdeHip, injured non-roster list
  • DoubtDennis HildebyUndisclosed, day-to-day
Seattle
  • OutRyan LindgrenUpper body, injured reserve, 4 to 6 weeks
  • OutJacob MelansonChest, injured reserve, out indefinitely
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Andrei Vasilevskiy (3-2-0, .886) for Tampa Bay and Joey Daccord (3-1-0, .913) for Seattle, both unconfirmed at 05:24 UTC on 15 October. Vasilevskiy has started five of Tampa's six games and is at .916 over three seasons; his backup Dennis Hildeby is day-to-day. Philipp Grubauer played in Philadelphia on Tuesday, so Daccord is in line. Tampa are without Yanni Gourde (hip); Brayden Point centres Gage Goncalves and Nikita Kucherov, with Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Jake Guentzel on the second line. Seattle have Ryan Lindgren (four to six weeks) and Jacob Melanson on injured reserve; Matty Beniers centres Jared McCann and Mackie Samoskevich. Absences checked on the Daily Faceoff line combinations and the ESPN injury list.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Tampa Bay vs Seattle?

Both models we checked pick Tampa Bay.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsTampa Bay 69.8%, projected 3.65 to 2.27Same side
DimersTampa Bay 65.8%Same side
Our positionWe agree with both on the winner: Tampa Bay. DRatings projects a gap of almost a goal and a half, and our main score is a two-goal home win. So our pick is the result we expect, Tampa Bay to win inside 60 minutes, rather than a win that could come in overtime.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Tampa Bay vs Seattle predicted score

Tampa's shot share at home against a Seattle side on its fourth road night.

4:2 to Tampa Bay is our main score: Tampa allow 23.8 shots a game, Vasilevskiy is at .916 over three seasons, and Seattle play their fourth road game in a row after a shootout in Philadelphia. 3:2 to Tampa Bay after overtime is the alternative, and it would lose this pick, because a tie after 60 minutes is not a regulation win. Any Tampa win in regulation, 4:2, 3:1 or 2:1, wins the pick; a tie after 60 minutes or a Seattle win loses it.

Predicted score
4:2
Alternative
3:2
Your score
TBL4
SEA2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Tampa Bay vs Seattle pick: Tampa Bay win in 60 min

Tampa Bay win in 60 min: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Last season Tampa Bay took 64.6% of the points with a goal difference of +0.72 a game; Seattle took 48.2% at -0.45. Six or seven games of this season do not change much: Tampa still outshoot opponents 29.5 to 23.8, while Seattle are outshot 26.9 to 30.6 despite their record. At home, with Vasilevskiy in goal, we expect Tampa Bay to win by two.

Our probability55–58%
Our pickTampa Bay win in 60 min
Odds1.69
Main scenario4:2
Our scenario
4:2alternative 3:2

What would change our mind Anyone other than Vasilevskiy in Tampa's goal would make us drop the pick and look at the game again.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Tampa Bay win in 60 min1.6959.2%
Draw in 60 min4.4522.5%
Seattle win in 60 min4.1724%
Tampa Bay win · incl. OT1.3971.9%
Seattle win · incl. OT2.9334.1%
Seattle +1.51.8155.2%
Tampa Bay −1.52.0249.5%
Over 5.5 goals1.6859.5%
Under 5.5 goals2.1845.9%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why our pick could go wrong.

  1. Seattle are 5-2-0 with a goal difference of +1.43 a game, the better start of the two.
  2. Tampa's power play has scored on 8.3% of its chances; Seattle's is at 22.7%.
  3. Vasilevskiy is at .886 this season, below his three-season .916.
  4. More than one NHL game in five is tied after 60 minutes, and a tie loses a regulation pick.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Tampa Bay win in 60 min at 1.69 · analysis only. We expect 4:2 to Tampa Bay, but we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Tampa Bay win in 60 min
Odds
1.69
Published
15 OCT 06:40
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Tampa Bay win in 60 min, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
4:2Tampa Bay win in 60 min at 1.69
Happened
4:3Tampa Bay win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.