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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Toronto

TorontovsBuffalo Toronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres · hockey prediction

Score
4:5 OT
Date · UK
16 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 15 OCT
City
Toronto
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Toronto vs Buffalo?

Our Maple Leafs vs Sabres prediction: Buffalo win the Battle of the QEW at Scotiabank Arena, 3:4. The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Buffalo Sabres are both 3-3-1 after seven games, but last season Buffalo took 66.5% of the available points and Toronto 47.6%. The line makes Toronto slight favourites at home; our pick is Buffalo to win, overtime included, as analysis only.

Predicted score · alt 3:2
3:4
Our estimate
50–55%
Buffalo win · incl. OT · odds 1.99Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Buffalo win · incl. OT
Price now
1.99

Toronto vs Buffalo at a glance

MatchToronto Maple Leafs vs Buffalo Sabres
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off16 OCT · 00:00 UK
VenueScotiabank Arena, Toronto
Our pickBuffalo win · incl. OT · 1.99 · analysis only
Our estimate50–55%
Predicted score3:4
Main reasonWe expect Buffalo to win because the better team over a full season is the away side here: 66.5% of points last season against Toronto's 47.6%, with a goal difference of +0.57 a game against -0.56.
No. 04 · Form

Toronto vs Buffalo: recent form

Toronto 2-3 in their last 5. Buffalo 2-3.

Toronto
Lost 4:5 in Utah on Tue 13 Oct · 2,680 km flight home, two time zones east · third game in seven days
Buffalo
Lost 3:4 in a shootout in Montreal on Tue 13 Oct · 504 km to Toronto · fourth game in seven days, third in four days
Toronto2-3
  • Lossvs Utah4:5
  • Winvs Colorado6:3
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Vegas3:4 SO
  • Win in overtime or shootoutvs Nashville5:4 OT
  • Lossvs Ottawa2:3
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
4.00
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
3.80
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
80%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
40%
Buffalo2-3
  • Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Montreal3:4 SO
  • Winvs Florida5:3
  • Lossvs Utah1:4
  • Lossvs Dallas0:4
  • Win in overtime or shootoutvs Minnesota3:2 OT
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
2.40
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
3.40
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
40%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
40%
Key factToronto are 2-3 in their last five and lost 4:5 in Utah on Tuesday, before a 2,680 km flight home. Buffalo are also 2-3 in their last five: a 0:4 home loss to Dallas and 1:4 to Utah, then a 5:3 win over Florida and a 3:4 shootout loss in Montreal on Tuesday, their fourth game in seven days.
Attack & defenceTORBUF
Wins and losses.3-3-13-3-1
Points %50.0%50.0%
Goal difference per game+0.14-1.00
Shots on goal per game.27.625.7
Shots against29.923.9
Special teamsTORBUF
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.29.2%11.1%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.95.8%60.9%
Last seasonTORBUF
Wins and losses.32-36-1450-23-9
Points %47.6%66.5%
Goal difference per game-0.56+0.57
Shots on goal per game.26.328.1
Shots against32.429.1
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.21.3%19.5%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.81.2%81.9%

NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Toronto vs Buffalo: starting goalies and team news

Bobrovsky and Luukkonen expected, neither confirmed; team news not confirmed.

TorontoExpected
Sergei Bobrovsky
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.907
Starts
4
SV% last season
.877
Daily Faceoff, unconfirmed, morning of 15 Oct (UK time)
BuffaloExpected
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.850
Starts
4
SV% last season
.910
Daily Faceoff, unconfirmed, morning of 15 Oct (UK time)
Toronto

No absences reported.

Buffalo

No absences reported.

TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Sergei Bobrovsky for Toronto and Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen for Buffalo, both unconfirmed on Thursday morning (UK time). Anthony Stolarz started for Toronto in Utah and let in five, so Bobrovsky, .907 in four starts this season and .877 in 51 last season, is due back. Luukkonen has started poorly (.850 in four starts) but stopped .921 of shots in Montreal on Tuesday and saved .910 last season. We did not find a confirmed injury report for either team before publishing; this block will not be updated after the morning skate.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Toronto vs Buffalo?

Both models we found have Buffalo slightly ahead, against the line.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsBuffalo 52.5%Same side
DimersBuffalo 50.9%Same side
Our positionThe line gives Toronto about 52% at home; both models put Buffalo just above 50%. We side with the models and with last season's numbers, but by a small margin: this is close to a coin flip.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Toronto vs Buffalo predicted score

A one-goal game, decided late or in overtime.

3:4 to Buffalo is our main score. Over 82 games last season Buffalo were the better team by a distance: 50-23-9, +0.57 goals a game against Toronto's -0.56, and Toronto allowed 32.4 shots a game. Toronto's special teams have been sharp in October (power play 29.2%, penalty kill 95.8%), so we expect them to score at least once with the extra man, and Buffalo's penalty kill (60.9%) is the weak point. 3:2 to Toronto is the alternative if Bobrovsky stands tall and Buffalo give away too many power plays. Buffalo to win, overtime included, comes in with any Buffalo win, in regulation, overtime or a shootout.

Predicted score
3:4
Alternative
3:2
Your score
TOR3
BUF4
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Toronto vs Buffalo pick: Buffalo win · incl. OT

Buffalo win · incl. OT: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We expect Buffalo to win because the better team over a full season is the away side here: 66.5% of points last season against Toronto's 47.6%, with a goal difference of +0.57 a game against -0.56. Seven October games say little, and both teams are 3-3-1. Toronto also come home from a long trip to Utah, where they conceded five. The margin is thin and the special teams favour Toronto, so we expect 3:4, possibly after overtime.

Our probability50–55%
Our pickBuffalo win · incl. OT
Odds1.99
Main scenario3:4
Our scenario
3:4alternative 3:2

What would change our mind A late goalie change: Buffalo starting Colten Ellis (.864 this season) instead of Luukkonen, or Toronto confirming Bobrovsky after a strong morning skate report.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Toronto win · incl. OT1.8554.1%
Buffalo win · incl. OT1.9950.3%
Toronto win in 60 min2.3642.4%
Draw in 60 min4.2523.5%
Buffalo win in 60 min2.5239.7%
Buffalo +1.51.4170.9%

Odds snapshot 15 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why our pick could go wrong.

  1. Toronto's special teams are the best part of their game so far: 29.2% on the power play and 95.8% on the penalty kill, while Buffalo kill only 60.9% of penalties.
  2. Luukkonen has saved only .850 in four starts this season.
  3. Buffalo play their fourth game in seven days and their third in four, after a shootout in Montreal on Tuesday.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Buffalo win · incl. OT at 1.99 · analysis only. We expect 3:4, but both teams are 3-3-1 and neither goalie is confirmed, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Buffalo win · incl. OT
Odds
1.99
Published
15 OCT 06:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Buffalo win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
3:4Buffalo win · incl. OT at 1.99
Happened
4:5Buffalo win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.