WashingtonvsMontreal Washington Capitals vs Montréal Canadiens · hockey prediction
Who will win Washington vs Montreal?
Our Capitals vs Canadiens prediction: a one-goal game at Capital One Arena, 3:2 to Washington. Both teams played on Tuesday. The Washington Capitals are expected to start backup Charlie Lindgren after Logan Thompson played in Raleigh; the Montréal Canadiens have confirmed Jakub Dobes. The line gives Washington 55% and DRatings 52%, so our pick is Montreal +1.5, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 3:4
- 3:2
- Our estimate
- 64–67%
- Market
- Montreal +1.5
- Price now
- 1.46
Washington vs Montreal at a glance
| Match | Washington Capitals vs Montréal Canadiens |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 15 OCT · 00:30 UK |
| Venue | Capital One Arena, Washington |
| Our pick | Montreal +1.5 · 1.46 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 64–67% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | We cannot see which side is stronger here: both teams played on Tuesday, neither goalie is his coach's first choice this week, and the line and the model give the hosts only 52 to 55%. |
Washington vs Montreal: recent form
Washington 2-3 in their last 5. Montreal 2-3.
- Washington
- Lost 2:4 in Carolina on Tue 13 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 376 km back from Raleigh · fourth game in seven days
- Montreal
- Beat Buffalo 4:3 in a shootout at home on Tue 13 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 787 km flight to Washington
- Lossvs Carolina2:4
- Lossvs Seattle3:5
- Winvs NY Rangers3:1
- Winvs Pittsburgh5:3
- Lossvs Tampa Bay1:3
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Buffalo4:3 SO
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Detroit1:0 SO
- Lossvs Nashville2:5
- Lossvs Carolina4:6
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Pittsburgh5:6 OT
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 4.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 60%
| Attack & defence | WSH | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-3-0 | 3-2-1 |
| Points % | 50.0% | 58.3% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.17 | -0.50 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 26.7 | 28.3 |
| Shots against | 29.5 | 26.3 |
| Special teams | WSH | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 13.3% | 10.0% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 86.4% | 80.8% |
| Last season | WSH | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 43-30-9 | 48-24-10 |
| Points % | 57.9% | 64.6% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.23 | +0.33 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 28.0 | 26.3 |
| Shots against | 28.1 | 27.8 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 17.8% | 23.1% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 80.1% | 78.2% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
Washington vs Montreal: starting goalies and team news
Dobes confirmed for Montreal; Lindgren expected for Washington.
- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .931
- Starts
- 1
- SV% last season
- .879
- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .856
- Starts
- 3
- SV% last season
- .901
- OutMatt RoyLower body, injured reserve
- OutRasmus SandinOut, reason not given
- DoubtPierre-Luc DuboisIllness, did not travel to Raleigh; status for Wednesday unclear
- DoubtAlex TuchUndisclosed injury, played on 13 Oct
- OutIvan DemidovLower body, injured reserve, 2 to 4 weeks
- OutOliver KapanenInjured reserve
- OutSamuel MontembeaultInjured reserve, 10 to 14 days
- DoubtMike MathesonLower body, missed the game on 13 Oct; day-to-day
- DoubtFlorian XhekajDay-to-day
Who do others back in Washington vs Montreal?
The one model we found sees almost an even game.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Washington 52.2%, projected 3.26 to 3.01 | Other side |
Washington vs Montreal predicted score
Two tired teams, two goalies with something to prove, one goal in it.
3:2 to Washington is our main score, possibly after overtime: both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, Lindgren and Dobes both have questions over their form, Washington press with their top line at home and Montreal answer through Cole Caufield and Lane Hutson. 3:4 to Montreal, or a 3:2 after overtime or a shootout, is the alternative if Lindgren concedes early. The scenario that beats our pick is a Washington win by two or more, such as 4:1 or 5:2, if Dobes plays the way he did early in October. Montreal +1.5 comes in with any Montreal win and any one-goal Washington win, overtime included, and loses if Washington win by two, empty-net goal included.
- Predicted score
- 3:2
- Alternative
- 3:4
Our Washington vs Montreal pick: Montreal +1.5
Montreal +1.5: why this pick wins
We cannot see which side is stronger here: both teams played on Tuesday, neither goalie is his coach's first choice this week, and the line and the model give the hosts only 52 to 55%. Games like this in the NHL very often end with a one-goal margin or in overtime. Montreal took 38 shots on Tuesday, and with that kind of volume they are hard to beat by two in Washington. We expect 3:2 to Washington.
- Wins with
- 3:22:14:32:31:22:4…
- Loses with
- 4:23:15:24:15:36:3…
- Our scenario
- 3:2alternative 3:4
What would change our mind Washington confirming Thompson instead of Lindgren at the morning skate: then our pick would move to Washington to win, overtime included.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Montreal +1.5 | 1.46 | 68.5% |
| Washington win · incl. OT | 1.74 | 57.5% |
| Montreal win · incl. OT | 2.09 | 47.8% |
| Washington win in 60 min | 2.22 | 45% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.26 | 23.5% |
| Montreal win in 60 min | 2.69 | 37.2% |
| Washington −1.5 | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 1.97 | 50.8% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.82 | 54.9% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Dobes has saved .856 this season and lost his place to Fowler for three games: Montreal can concede four or more.
- Montreal are without Demidov and probably Matheson, and they played 65 minutes on Tuesday before a 787 km flight.
- A late empty-net goal turns a 3:2 into a 4:2, and that loses the +1.5.
Analysis
Our pick: Montreal +1.5 at 1.46 · analysis only. We expect 3:2 to Washington, but both results are realistic, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
- Analysis published · our pick Montreal +1.5, no bet
- We said
- 3:2Montreal +1.5 at 1.46
- Happened
- 5:4Washington win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.