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Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Washington

WashingtonvsNY Rangers Washington Capitals vs New York Rangers · hockey prediction

Score
3:1
Date · UK
10 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 9 OCT
City
Washington
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Washington vs NY Rangers?

Washington host the Rangers with Alex Ovechkin on 929 career goals and still waiting for his first of the season. The prices favour Washington; the first week of hockey favours the Rangers. We expect Washington to win 3:2, without a bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:3
3:2
Our estimate
52–56%
Washington win · incl. OT · odds 1.70Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Washington win · incl. OT
Price now
1.70

Washington vs NY Rangers at a glance

MatchWashington Capitals vs New York Rangers
CompetitionNHL · Regular season
Kick-off10 OCT · 00:00 UK
VenueCapital One Arena, Washington
Our pickWashington win · incl. OT · 1.70 · analysis only
Our estimate52–56%
Predicted score3:2
No. 04 · Form

Washington vs NY Rangers: recent form

Washington 2-1 in their last 3. NY Rangers 4-1.

Washington
Beat Pittsburgh at home on Wed 7 Oct · one day of rest · not a back-to-back
NY Rangers
Beat the Islanders at home on Tue 6 Oct · two days of rest · short trip from New York
Washington2-1
  • Winvs Pittsburgh5:3
  • Lossvs Tampa Bay1:3
  • Winvs Carolina5:2
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.67
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
2.67
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
66.7%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
NY Rangers4-1
  • Winvs NY Islanders5:2
  • Winvs Utah4:2
  • Winvs Detroit2:0
  • Winvs Tampa Bay5:1
  • Lossvs Boston0:3
Goals scored per game, overtime included.
3.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
1.60
Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
60%
Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
0%
Key factThe Rangers are 4-1-0 and concede 1.6 goals a game. Washington are 2-1-0 but allow 31 shots a game while taking 25.
Attack & defenceWSHNYR
Wins and losses.2-1-04-1-0
Goals scored per game, overtime included.3.673.20
Goals allowed per game, overtime included.2.671.60
Shots on goal per game.25.023.2
Shots against31.023.6
Special teamsWSHNYR
Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal.25.0%21.4%
Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding.91.7%87.5%
Faceoff %50.3%52.2%

NHL 2026-27, 3 and 5 games · NHL stats

No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected

Washington vs NY Rangers: starting goalies and team news

Both starting goalies are expected, neither is confirmed.

WashingtonExpected
Logan Thompson
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.921
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
2.50
Wins and losses.
2-0-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:10 UTC on 9 Oct
NY RangersExpected
Igor Shesterkin
Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
.926
Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
1.75
Wins and losses.
3-1-0
Daily Faceoff: unconfirmed at 05:10 UTC on 9 Oct
Washington
  • DoubtMatt RoyLower body, day-to-day
  • OutRasmus SandinKnee injury
  • FormAlex Ovechkin929 career goals, none yet this season
NY Rangers
  • OutJoe VelenoLower body, injured reserve
  • OutAdam SykoraLower body, injured reserve
  • OutJoonas KorpisaloLower body, injured reserve
TacticsDaily Faceoff expects Logan Thompson (.921) for Washington and Igor Shesterkin (.926, 1.75 goals against) for the Rangers; both were unconfirmed on Friday morning. Matt Roy is day-to-day and Rasmus Sandin is out for Washington; the Rangers miss Joe Veleno, Adam Sykora and Joonas Korpisalo. Ovechkin has one assist and no goals in three games.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in Washington vs NY Rangers?

Both previews we found pick Washington.

SourcePickVersus us
DRatingsWashington 58.1%, projected 3.34 to 2.48Same side
SportsgamblerWashington to win, predicted 5:3Same side
Our positionWe see it the same way, but the shot numbers and Shesterkin's form stop us from staking on it.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Washington vs NY Rangers predicted score

A tight game settled by one goal.

3:2 to Washington, possibly in overtime, is our main score: Washington finish their chances, the Rangers give up few shots. A 1:3 Rangers win is the alternative if Shesterkin stops 30 or more.

Predicted score
3:2
Alternative
1:3
Your score
WSH3
NYR2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Washington vs NY Rangers pick: Washington win · incl. OT

Washington win · incl. OT: why this pick wins

Our probability52–56%
Our pickWashington win · incl. OT
Odds1.70
Main scenario3:2
Our scenario
3:2alternative 1:3

What would change our mind Dylan Garand starting for the Rangers instead of Shesterkin would make a Washington win worth a bet.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Washington win · incl. OT1.7058.8%
NY Rangers win · incl. OT2.1746.1%

Odds snapshot 9 OCT 10:37 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

The case for the Rangers.

  1. Washington face 31 shots a game and take 25: they lead on results, not on play.
  2. Shesterkin is at .926 with 1.75 goals against a game.
  3. The Rangers have won four of five, including 2:0 in Detroit.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Washington win · incl. OT at 1.70, without a bet: both results are realistic, and the Rangers have played the better hockey so far.

Market
Washington win · incl. OT
Odds
1.70
Published
9 OCT 06:15
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
3:2Washington win · incl. OT at 1.70
Happened
3:1Washington win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

Read next

    FAQ

    What does Analysis mean?

    Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.