ENES
Join the club
Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 6 · Coventry

CoventryvsNewcastle Coventry City vs Newcastle United · prediction

Score
4:1
Date
12 OCT
City
Coventry
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Coventry vs Newcastle?

Our Coventry vs Newcastle prediction is both teams to score, most likely 1:2 to Newcastle. Frank Lampard's Coventry City are 19th with three points and have scored once in five league games; Matthias Jaissle's Newcastle United are 11th on eight points but concede 1.87 expected goals a game. A Newcastle win and a draw are both realistic, so this is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:2
Our estimate
55–60%
Both teams to score · odds 1.57Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Both teams to score
Price now
1.57

Coventry vs Newcastle at a glance

MatchCoventry City vs Newcastle United
CompetitionPremier League · Matchday 6
Kick-off12 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Coventry
VenueCoventry Building Society Arena, Coventry
Our pickBoth teams to score · 1.57 · analysis only
Our estimate55–60%
Predicted score1:2
Main reasonWe think Newcastle are better, but not by enough to back them: both teams concede more expected goals than they create, and Newcastle's table is 3.7 points better than their play.
No. 04 · Form

Coventry vs Newcastle: recent form

Coventry 3 from 15. Newcastle 10 from 15.

Coventry3 pts
  • Winvs Nottingham Forest1:0
  • Lossvs Aston Villa1:3
  • Lossvs Brighton0:5
  • Lossvs Manchester City0:1
  • Lossvs Hull City0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
20%
Newcastle10 pts
  • Winvs Hull City2:1
  • Lossvs Leeds United1:4
  • Winvs Millwall1:0
  • Drawvs Bournemouth2:2
  • Winvs Tottenham Hotspur2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Key factCoventry have won one of their last five, 1:0 at Nottingham Forest, and lost the other four, including 0:5 at home to Brighton; they have scored two goals in those five games. Newcastle won three of their last five, among them 2:0 at Tottenham, but lost 1:4 at Leeds. Both teams scored in 7 of Newcastle's last 10 games and in 4 of Coventry's. Both sides come back after 23 days off for the international break.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Coventry vs Newcastle team news

Awoniyi banned and Wright injured for Coventry; Burn a doubt for Newcastle.

Coventry
  • OutTaiwo AwoniyiSuspended
  • OutHaji WrightMuscle injury
  • OutAurèle AmendaCalf injury
  • OutJosh Eccles
  • OutLuke WoolfendenKnee injury
  • DoubtKesler-HaydenSources differ: out or doubtful
  • Doubtvan Ewijk
  • DoubtLatibeaudière
Newcastle
  • OutNico González
  • OutAnthony ElangaKnee injury
  • OutEwen JaouenMuscle injury
  • DoubtDan BurnAnkle injury
  • DoubtJoelinton
  • DoubtLivramento
  • DoubtRamsey
  • DoubtOsula
  • DoubtMiley
  • DoubtDedić
TacticsCoventry are without Taiwo Awoniyi, who serves a three-match ban for his straight red card against Brighton, and Haji Wright (muscle), so both main forwards are missing. Aurèle Amenda is out for up to three months with a calf injury, Lampard said, and Josh Eccles and Luke Woolfenden (knee) are also out; previews differ on Kesler-Hayden, while van Ewijk and Latibeaudière are doubts. Newcastle have Nico González, Anthony Elanga and goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen out, and Dan Burn (ankle) is not expected to play; Joelinton, Livramento, Ramsey, Osula, Miley and Dedić are doubts, and Lukáš Horníček is expected in goal. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4

Who do others back in Coventry vs Newcastle?

Every preview we read makes Newcastle favourites; three back both teams to score.

SourcePick
Kickoff.co.ukNewcastle 46%, both teams to score 61%
Onside ArenaNewcastle 47%, both teams to score 57%
footballpredictions.comNewcastle 1:2
SoccerNewsNewcastle to win
Our positionWe agree Newcastle are the stronger side, but not by much: their expected-goals balance this season (−0.76 a game) is no better than Coventry's (−0.73), so we expect Coventry to score too.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Coventry vs Newcastle predicted score

Coventry have to open up at home; Newcastle hit them on the break.

Coventry are in the relegation zone and must attack at home, which leaves space for Barnes, Murphy and Wissa on the counter. Coventry's best routes to a goal are set pieces and early pressure. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if Coventry squeeze the space and Newcastle, without Burn and Joelinton, cannot finish the game. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 1:2, 2:1 or 2:2 and loses with 0:1, 0:2 or 1:0.

Predicted score
1:2
Alternative
1:1
Your score
COV1
NEW2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Coventry vs Newcastle pick: Both teams to score

Both teams to score: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think Newcastle are better, but not by enough to back them: both teams concede more expected goals than they create, and Newcastle's table is 3.7 points better than their play. Coventry have to open up at home, and that gives Newcastle room on the break. Our score is 1:2, and both teams to score holds with 1:2 and with 1:1.

Our probability55–60%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.57
Main scenario1:2
Wins with
1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
Loses with
1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
Our scenario
1:2alternative 1:1

What would change our mind A Coventry starting XI with no natural striker, or Newcastle starting Burn and Joelinton: then 0:1 becomes our main score.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Coventry win3.2031.3%
Draw3.6027.8%
Newcastle win2.1546.5%
Both teams to score1.5763.7%
Both teams not to score2.2544.4%
Over 2.5 goals1.6759.9%
Under 2.5 goals2.2045.5%

Odds snapshot 12 OCT 06:33 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Coventry might not score.

  1. Coventry have scored two goals in their last five games and one in five league games.
  2. Without Awoniyi and Wright, Coventry are missing their two main forwards.
  3. Both teams scored in only 4 of Coventry's last 10 games.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 1:2, but a draw is very realistic and Coventry barely score, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Both teams to score
Odds
1.57
Published
12 OCT 06:45
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:2Both teams to score at 1.57
Happened
4:1Coventry win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

Read next

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.