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Football · England · Premier League · Matchday 6 · Manchester

Man UnitedvsTottenham Manchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur · prediction

Score
1:1
Date
10 OCT
City
Manchester
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Man United vs Tottenham?

Our Man United vs Tottenham prediction is a home win at Old Trafford, most likely 2:1. Michael Carrick’s United are 12th on five points; Roberto De Zerbi’s Tottenham are bottom on two and have scored twice in five league games. United are without Dorgu, Šeško, De Ligt and Ugarte and travel to Atlético Madrid in the Champions League on Tuesday, so this is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
2:1
Our estimate
53–57%
Man United win · odds 1.71Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Man United win
Price now
1.71

Man United vs Tottenham at a glance

MatchManchester United vs Tottenham Hotspur
CompetitionPremier League · Matchday 6
Kick-off10 OCT · 17:30 UK · 17:30 Manchester
VenueOld Trafford, Manchester
Our pickMan United win · 1.71 · analysis only
Our estimate53–57%
Predicted score2:1
No. 04 · Form

Man United vs Tottenham: recent form

Man United 5 from 15. Tottenham 2 from 15.

Man United5 pts
  • Drawvs Fulham1:1
  • Lossvs Brighton2:3
  • Lossvs Man City0:1
  • Winvs Sabah4:0
  • Drawvs Everton2:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Tottenham2 pts
  • Lossvs Aston Villa2:3
  • Lossvs Liverpool1:3
  • Drawvs Everton0:0
  • Drawvs Nottingham Forest0:0
  • Lossvs Newcastle0:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
40%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factUnited have one league win, 5:2 against Ipswich, plus draws at Everton and Fulham and defeats at Hull and at home to Man City, and they have conceded in every league game. They also lost 2:3 at home to Brighton in the League Cup after leading 2:0 at half-time. Tottenham drew 0:0 with Forest and Everton, lost at Brentford and at home to Newcastle, and scored their only two league goals in the 2:3 home defeat to Aston Villa. United have won one of the last nine meetings, 2:0 at Old Trafford in February.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Man United vs Tottenham team news

Dorgu and Šeško out for United; Porro out and Van Hecke a doubt for Spurs.

Man United
  • OutPatrick DorguHamstring injury
  • OutBenjamin ŠeškoShin injury
  • OutMatthijs de LigtBack injury
  • OutManuel UgarteKnee injury
  • OutTom HeatonThigh injury
  • DoubtNoussair MazraouiKnock on international duty
  • DoubtAmad DialloAnkle injury, back in training
Tottenham
  • OutPedro PorroThigh injury
  • OutDejan KulusevskiKnee injury
  • OutXavi SimonsKnee injury
  • OutWilson OdobertKnee injury
  • OutMykhailo MudrykAnkle injury
  • DoubtJan Paul van HeckeFoot injury
  • DoubtMicky van de VenFinger injury, expected to be fit
TacticsCarrick confirmed Dorgu will miss a number of weeks with a hamstring injury picked up with Denmark, and Šeško is still out with a shin problem; De Ligt, Ugarte and Heaton remain sidelined and Mazraoui is being assessed after a knock with Morocco. Rashford, Mainoo and Amad have trained, and summer signing Carlos Baleba is in line for his debut. De Zerbi is without Porro, so Archie Gray is expected at right-back, along with Kulusevski, Simons, Odobert and Mudryk; Van Hecke is a doubt with a foot injury, while Van de Ven is expected to shake off a finger problem.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3

Who do others back in Man United vs Tottenham?

All three previews we read expect a Man United win.

SourcePickVersus us
Sports MoleMan United 3:1Same side
Football365Man United 2:0Same side
SoccerNewsMan United to winSame side
Our positionWe agree on the winner, but we expect Tottenham to score: United have not kept a league clean sheet this season.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Man United vs Tottenham predicted score

United’s shots against a Spurs side that struggles to score.

United should have more of the ball and more shots at home, with Fernandes, Mbeumo and Cunha behind the attack. Tottenham will rely on Solanke and the pace of Savio and Marmoush on the break. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if United, with Atlético on their minds, cannot add a second.

Predicted score
2:1
Alternative
1:1
Your score
MUN2
TOT1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Man United vs Tottenham pick: Man United win

Man United win: why this pick wins

Our probability53–57%
Our pickMan United win
Odds1.71
Main scenario2:1
Our scenario
2:1alternative 1:1

What would change our mind Fernandes or Rashford missing from the starting XI, or Carrick resting key players for the trip to Madrid.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Man United win1.7158.5%
Draw4.1424.2%
Tottenham win4.3822.8%

Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:26 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why Tottenham could still take something.

  1. Tottenham have won five of the last nine meetings; United only one.
  2. United have kept one clean sheet in seven games in all competitions and play Atlético away on Tuesday.
  3. De Zerbi won 3:1 at Old Trafford with Brighton in 2023.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Man United to win · analysis only. We expect 2:1, but with four players out and Atlético on Tuesday, we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Man United win
Odds
1.71
Published
10 OCT 10:15
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:1Man United win at 1.71
Happened
1:1Draw

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.