Luis Suárez has scored in nine straight games. The last Sporting man to do it was Yazalde
Our take Suárez's streak is hiding Sporting's defence
Football · Portugal · Primeira Liga · Matchday 8 · Braga
BragavsSporting SC Braga vs Sporting CP · prediction
Score
1:3
Date
9 OCT
City
Braga
Status
Full time
SCB1:3SCPFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Braga vs Sporting?
Braga vs Sporting is the top game in Portugal on Friday night. Sporting are third, four points ahead of sixth-placed Braga, but they drew their last two league games and play without the suspended Debast. We expect Sporting not to lose and predict 1:1, without a bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:2
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 70–74%
- Market
- Sporting or draw
- Price now
- 1.33
Braga vs Sporting at a glance
| Match | SC Braga vs Sporting CP |
|---|---|
| Competition | Primeira Liga · Matchday 8 |
| Kick-off | 9 OCT · 20:15 UK · 20:15 Braga |
| Venue | Estádio Municipal de Braga, Braga |
| Our pick | Sporting or draw · 1.33 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 70–74% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
No. 04 · Form
Braga vs Sporting: recent form
Braga 10 from 15. Sporting 11 from 15.
Braga10 pts
- Drawvs Santa Clara0:0
- Winvs Estoril1:0
- Lossvs Estrela Amadora1:2
- Winvs Alverca2:1
- Winvs Vitória de Guimarães1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Sporting11 pts
- Drawvs Arouca2:2
- Drawvs Famalicão1:1
- Winvs Nacional2:0
- Winvs Rio Ave4:0
- Winvs Alverca3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factThe last three meetings were all draws, and Sporting are unbeaten in their last six league visits to Braga. Braga have won all five of their home games this season without conceding.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Braga vs Sporting team news
Debast suspended; Suárez and Zalazar back only a day before.
Braga
- OutSikou NiakatéAchilles tendon rupture
- DoubtGustaf LagerbielkeIllness
Sporting
- OutZeno DebastSuspended
- DoubtGeorgios VagiannidisMuscle problem from international duty
- DoubtLuis SuárezBack from international duty a day before the game
- DoubtRodrigo ZalazarBack from international duty a day before the game
- DoubtMaxi AraújoBack from international duty a day before the game
TacticsRui Borges loses Debast to a red card from the Arouca game, and Vagiannidis came back from international duty with a muscle problem. Luis Suárez, Zalazar and Maxi Araújo return from long international trips about a day before kick-off. Carlos Vicens’ Braga miss Niakaté and Lagerbielke is ill.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Braga vs Sporting?
The one preview we read sees a draw.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Draw 1:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe see the same score. Sporting are the stronger side, but tired legs and Braga’s defence point to a draw or a narrow away win.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Braga vs Sporting predicted score
Braga close the middle, Sporting score once.
Braga should sit compact and make Sporting work for every chance. 1:1 is our main score; 1:2 to Sporting is the alternative if Ioannidis takes one of the few chances he gets.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 1:2
Your score
SCB
SCP
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Braga vs Sporting pick: Sporting or draw
Sporting or draw: why this pick wins
Our probability70–74%
Our pickSporting or draw
Odds1.33
Main scenario1:1
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 1:2
What would change our mind Suárez, Zalazar and Araújo all on the bench would make us doubt even the draw.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Braga win | 3.09 | 32.4% |
| Draw | 3.27 | 30.6% |
| Sporting win | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Sporting or draw | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| Braga or draw | 1.64 | 61% |
Odds snapshot 9 OCT 10:37 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Braga could win.
- Braga have won all five of their home games this season without conceding a goal.
- Sporting have drawn two league games in a row.
- Three Sporting regulars land a day before kick-off after long trips.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Sporting or draw at 1.33, Sporting not to lose, without a bet: a draw and a narrow Sporting win are equally likely and we are not sure enough about either.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Sporting or draw at 1.33
- Happened
- 1:3Sporting win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.