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Football · Greece · Super League · Regular season · Piraeus

OlympiacosvsPanathinaikos prediction

Score
1:0
Date
11 OCT
City
Piraeus
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos?

Our Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos prediction is under 2.5 goals in Piraeus, most likely 1:1. Jacob Neestrup's Panathinaikos lead the Super League with five wins from five; Imanol Alguacil's Olympiacos are fourth on 10 points and have scored five goals in their last five games. With no team news and no outside previews to check against, this derby is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:0
1:1
Our estimate
55–60%
Under 2.5 goals · odds 1.67Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Under 2.5 goals
Price now
1.67

Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos at a glance

MatchOlympiacos vs Panathinaikos
CompetitionSuper League · Regular season
Kick-off11 OCT · 19:00 UK · 21:00 Piraeus
VenueGeorgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Piraeus
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals · 1.67 · analysis only
Our estimate55–60%
Predicted score1:1
No. 04 · Form

Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos: recent form

Olympiacos 10 from 15. Panathinaikos 15 from 15.

Olympiacos10 pts
  • Winvs Levadiakos1:0
  • Winvs Jagiellonia2:1
  • Lossvs OFI0:1
  • Drawvs Volos1:1
  • Winvs Asteras Tripolis1:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
20%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Panathinaikos15 pts
  • Winvs Kalamata1:0
  • Winvs Panetolikos3:0
  • Winvs Kifisia3:1
  • Winvs PAOK3:1
  • Winvs Levadiakos2:0
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.40
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factPanathinaikos are 5-0-0 in the league with a +10 goal difference and have scored 12 and conceded 2 in their last five games, though their two most recent away wins were 1:0 at Kalamata and 2:0 at Levadiakos. Olympiacos are 3-1-1 with a +2 goal difference: they take about 19 shots a game over their last five, but have scored only five goals, including a 0:1 home defeat to OFI.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos team news

No team news from either club before the derby.

Olympiacos

No absences reported.

Panathinaikos

No absences reported.

TacticsNeither club had published player availability when we checked, and we found no preview with injuries or suspensions, so we list no absences. Both sides come off a 21-day break and play in Europe on Thursday 15 October: Olympiacos in Marseille in the Europa League, Panathinaikos at home to Borac Banja Luka in the Conference League. In a derby after a long break we expect both coaches to start their strongest XI.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos predicted score

Olympiacos have the ball; Panathinaikos wait for the break.

Olympiacos should have more of the ball and more shots at home, but they turn few of them into goals. Panathinaikos are comfortable without possession and hurt teams on the counter. 1:1 is our main score; 1:0 is the alternative if one set piece decides the derby. Under 2.5 goals wins with 1:1, 1:0, 0:1 or 0:0.

Predicted score
1:1
Alternative
1:0
Your score
OLY1
PAO1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Olympiacos vs Panathinaikos pick: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Our probability55–60%
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals
Odds1.67
Main scenario1:1
Wins with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Loses with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Our scenario
1:1alternative 1:0

What would change our mind Official line-ups with two strikers on both sides, or the under 2.5 price dropping below 1.40 before kick-off.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Olympiacos win2.1047.6%
Draw3.1531.7%
Panathinaikos win3.8026.3%
Under 2.5 goals1.6759.9%
Over 2.5 goals2.1546.5%

Odds snapshot 11 OCT 19:56 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why there could be three goals or more.

  1. Panathinaikos have scored 2.1 goals a game over their last ten matches and have won all five league games.
  2. Derbies bring red cards and penalties: one such moment can open the game.
  3. Neither line-up is known yet.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: under 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but with no team news and a derby that one red card can change, we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.67
Published
11 OCT 19:58
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:1Under 2.5 goals at 1.67
Happened
1:0Olympiacos win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.