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Football · Denmark · Superliga · Matchday 10 · Aarhus

AGFvsSønderjyske Aarhus GF vs Sønderjyske Fodbold · prediction

Score
3:0
Date
12 OCT
City
Aarhus
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionBet

Who will win AGF vs Sønderjyske?

AGF and Sønderjyske both have 5 points after nine Superliga games, and both concede in almost every match. Both teams scored in seven of the last ten games of each side, and AGF have not kept a clean sheet in that run. AGF are still without a league win this season. We back both teams to score, most likely 2:1 or 1:1.

Predicted score · alt 2:0
2:1
Our estimate
61–64%
Both teams to score · odds 1.57Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Both teams to score
Price now
1.57

AGF vs Sønderjyske at a glance

MatchAarhus GF vs Sønderjyske Fodbold
CompetitionSuperliga · Matchday 10
Kick-off12 OCT · 18:00 UK · 19:00 Aarhus
VenueCeres Park Vejlby, Aarhus
Our pickBoth teams to score · 1.57 · bet
Our estimate61–64%
Predicted score2:1
Main reasonWe think both teams score here because neither can keep the ball out: AGF have not kept a clean sheet in ten games and Sønderjyske conceded 25 in theirs.
No. 04 · Form

AGF vs Sønderjyske: recent form

AGF 2 from 15. Sønderjyske 4 from 15.

AGF2 pts
  • Drawvs Horsens2:2
  • Lossvs Nordsjælland0:2
  • Drawvs Silkeborg2:2
  • Lossvs Midtjylland0:2
  • Lossvs Randers1:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.00
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
60%
Sønderjyske4 pts
  • Winvs Randers4:2
  • Drawvs Lyngby1:1
  • Lossvs Horsens2:5
  • Lossvs FC København1:3
  • Lossvs Nordsjælland0:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factAGF are 11th on 5 points (no wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats) and Sønderjyske 12th on 5 (1 win, 2 draws, 6 defeats). Over their last ten games AGF scored 10 and conceded 24 without a clean sheet; Sønderjyske scored 13 and conceded 25 with one. Both teams scored in seven of those ten for each side.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

AGF vs Sønderjyske team news

Team news from one preview only; AGF go to Gent on Thursday.

AGF

No absences reported.

Sønderjyske

No absences reported.

TacticsSportsGambler lists Kevin Yakob (knee), Oskar Haugstrup (knock) and Nicolai Poulsen as out for AGF, and Ebube Duru (ankle) for Sønderjyske. We found no second source for any of them, so we do not count them. AGF play at Gent in the Conference League on Thursday, three days after this game. The official line-ups are not out yet.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in AGF vs Sønderjyske?

The one preview with a pick expects an AGF clean sheet.

SourcePick
SportsGamblerAGF 2:0, both teams to score: no
Our positionWe disagree on the goals: AGF have not kept a clean sheet in ten games. KickOff’s preview, which gives no score, also expects both teams to score.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

AGF vs Sønderjyske predicted score

Two defences that leak, goals at both ends.

Neither side can afford to sit back: both are near the bottom on 5 points. 2:1 is our main score, and 1:1 works just as well for us. 2:0 is the risk: AGF keep their first clean sheet in ten games. The bet wins with 1:1, 2:1, 2:2 or 1:2 and loses with any score where one side fails to score.

Predicted score
2:1
Alternative
2:0
Your score
AGF2
SJE1
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our AGF vs Sønderjyske pick: Both teams to score

Both teams to score: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think both teams score here because neither can keep the ball out: AGF have not kept a clean sheet in ten games and Sønderjyske conceded 25 in theirs. We do not need to know who wins, and both results are possible. Both sides need points, so neither can play for 0:0. We expect 2:1 or 1:1.

Our probability61–64%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.57
Main scenario2:1
Wins with
1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
Loses with
1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
Our scenario
2:1alternative 2:0

What would change our mind An AGF team sheet without Janni Serra and another regular attacker.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Both teams to score1.5763.7%
Both teams not to score2.2544.4%
AGF win1.5365.4%
Draw4.2023.8%
Sønderjyske win5.2519%

Odds snapshot 12 OCT 07:33 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

  1. The only preview with a pick says no: AGF 2:0.
  2. AGF may play carefully with Gent away on Thursday.
  3. Each side failed to score in three of its last ten games; one quiet attacking night is enough to lose this.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Bet

Bet Both teams to score at 1.57, as a single. We need a goal from each side.

Market
Both teams to score
Odds
1.57
Published
12 OCT 07:50
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.57
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:1Bet at 1.57
Happened
3:0AGF win
Lost

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FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.