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Tennis · WTA · China Open, Beijing · WTA 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard
Ekaterina AlexandrovavsMirra Andreeva prediction · China Open 2026
Date
8 OCT
Court
Capital Group Diamond
Order of play
Second match on court, not before 7:00 PM, not before 19:00 local (12:00 UK)
Status
6:7 6:7
Analysis onlyALE12:00 UKANDAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Alexandrova vs Andreeva?
Mirra Andreeva plays Ekaterina Alexandrova in the China Open quarter-final in Beijing. We expect Andreeva to win, most likely in three sets, but Alexandrova is the one player in the draw with a clear record against her, so we are not betting on it.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our pick
- 66–70%
- Our pick
- Mirra Andreeva win
- Odds at publish
- 1.29
- Set by set
- 4:6, 6:3, 3:6
- Not before (UK)
- 12:00
Alexandrova vs Andreeva at a glance
| Match | Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Mirra Andreeva |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · China Open, Beijing · Quarter-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 8 OCT · 12:00 UK · 19:00 local |
| Court | Capital Group Diamond · Second match on court, not before 7:00 PM |
| Our pick | Mirra Andreeva win · 1.29 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 66–70% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (4:6, 6:3, 3:6) |
| Main reason | Alexandrova leads 2-0 and has not lost a set: 6:3, 6:2 in Stuttgart on clay in 2025 and 6:3, 6:4 in Bad Homburg on grass in June 2026. |
No. 02 · Form
Alexandrova vs Andreeva: recent form
Andreeva has dropped one set in three matches in Beijing
Ekaterina AlexandrovaLast 10: 6-4
- Lost to Svitolina E. 3-6, 6-0, 6-3
- Won v Blinkova A. 6(5)-7, 6-4, 7-5
- Lost to Bejlek S. 4-6, 6-1, 6-2
- Lost to Tauson C. 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-3
- Won v Kessler M. 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Birrell K. 6-1, 2-6, 6-3
- Lost to Kostyuk M. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Sasnovich A. 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Shnaider D. 3-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Noskova L. 6-2, 6-2
Mirra AndreevaLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Tjen J. 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Lys E. 6-0, 6-2
- Won v Bartunkova N. 6-2, 7-6(5)
- Won v Potapova A. 5-7, 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Gauff C. 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-2
- Won v Sasnovich A. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Fernandez L. 6-2, 7-5
- Won v Yuan Y. 3-6, 6-0, 6-0
- Won v Kudermetova P. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Snigur D. 6-2, 6-2
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Noskova L.Beijing · 06.10.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Shnaider D.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 3-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Sasnovich A.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 6-1, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Kostyuk M.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Birrell K.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-1, 2-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Kessler M.US Open · 30.08.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Tauson C.Monterrey · 27.08.26 | 7-6(6), 4-6, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Bejlek S.Cincinnati WTA · 18.08.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| Won v | Blinkova A.Cincinnati WTA · 16.08.26 | 6(5)-7, 6-4, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Toronto WTA · 11.08.26 | 3-6, 6-0, 6-3 |
| Won v | Snigur D.Beijing · 06.10.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Kudermetova P.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Yuan Y.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 3-6, 6-0, 6-0 |
| Lost to | Fernandez L.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 7-5 |
| Won v | Sasnovich A.Singapore WTA · 23.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.US Open · 09.09.26 | 2-6, 7-6(7), 6-2 |
| Won v | Potapova A.US Open · 07.09.26 | 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Bartunkova N.US Open · 05.09.26 | 6-2, 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Lys E.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-0, 6-2 |
| Won v | Tjen J.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
The head-to-headAlexandrova leads 2-0 and has not lost a set: 6:3, 6:2 in Stuttgart on clay in 2025 and 6:3, 6:4 in Bad Homburg on grass in June 2026. This is their first meeting on a hard court.
No. 03 · Context
- Andreeva in Beijing
- She beat Yuan Yue 3:6, 6:0, 6:0, Polina Kudermetova 6:4, 6:1 and Daria Snigur 6:2, 6:2, about four hours on court in total. She is No. 5 and the 2026 Roland Garros champion.
- Alexandrova in Beijing
- She beat Aliaksandra Sasnovich 6:1, 6:4, came from a set down against Diana Shnaider and then beat Linda Noskova 6:2, 6:2 in 1 hour 6 minutes.
- Hard-court quarter-finals
- Andreeva is 1-4 in hard-court quarter-finals this season, according to the WTA match notes, and lost the last three: to Amanda Anisimova in Dubai, Coco Gauff at the US Open and Leylah Fernandez in Singapore.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Andreeva wins 43% of return games, Alexandrova holds 68% of the time
| Stat | Alexandrova | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | No. 28 | No. 5 (better) |
| Season record | 20-22 | 48-15 (better) |
| On hard courts | 14-13 | 26-10 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 6-4 | 8-2 (better) |
| Hard-court Elo | 1812.5 | 1963.0 (better) |
| Stat | Alexandrova | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| 1st serve in | 58.7% | 64.0% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 66.5% | 67.9% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 45.3% | 48.1% (better) |
| Service games held | 68.3% | 74.6% (better) |
| Double faults per match | 4.7 | 3.7 (better) |
| Tie-breaks 2026 | 5-7 | 8-8 (better) |
| Stat | Alexandrova | Andreeva |
|---|---|---|
| Return games won | 29.9% | 43.2% (better) |
| Break points converted | 41.3% | 50.0% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 7 October. Serve and return: WTA official 2026 season statistics. Elo: Tennis Abstract, updated 28 September.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head2 meetings
Alexandrova leads 2-0
| 2026 | AlexandrovaBad Homburg · Grass · R16 | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025 | AlexandrovaStuttgart · Clay · R16 | 6-3 6-2 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in Alexandrova vs Andreeva?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Andreeva, 76% model probability | Same side |
| Last Word On Tennis | Andreeva in three sets | Same side |
| Australian preview site | Alexandrova | Other side |
Our position2 of 3 back Andreeva. We are on Andreeva’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Alexandrova vs Andreeva predicted score
Andreeva in three, with Alexandrova taking a set
Andreeva wins 43% of her return games this season and Alexandrova holds only 68% of hers, with 4.7 double faults a match, so we expect breaks for Andreeva. Alexandrova's flat hitting has taken the initiative from her twice already, which is why our predicted line is 4:6, 6:3, 3:6 and a straight-sets Andreeva win the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 4:6, 6:3, 3:6
- Alternative
- 0:2
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Alexandrova vs Andreeva pick: Mirra Andreeva win
Why analysis only
Andreeva should win on serve and return numbers, but she is 0-2 against Alexandrova and has lost her last three hard-court quarter-finals. That is too much doubt for a stake at this price.
Our pick66–70%
Our pickMirra Andreeva win
Odds1.29
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 4:6, 6:3, 3:61:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any news on the fitness of either player before they walk on court.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Alexandrova leads the head-to-head 2-0 and has never dropped a set against her.
- Andreeva has lost her last three hard-court quarter-finals.
- Alexandrova is in form: she beat Linda Noskova 6:2, 6:2 in the last round.