Spain have lost four Shanghai finals. Alcaraz arrives with Sinner gone
Our take Spain's best Shanghai chance in 17 years
Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Third round · Hard
Carlos AlcarazvsZizou Bergs prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
12 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Fourth match on court, not before 6:00 PM, not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
5:7 6:7
Analysis onlyALC11:00 UKBERAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Alcaraz vs Bergs?
Carlos Alcaraz plays Zizou Bergs in the Shanghai Masters third round on Monday, not before 18:00 local time (11:00 UK) on Stadium Court. Our prediction: Alcaraz wins 2:0, most likely 6:4, 6:3, so Bergs stays inside +5.5 games; this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our pick
- —
- Our pick
- Zizou Bergs +5.5 games
- Odds at publish
- 1.92
- Set by set
- 6:4, 6:3
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Alcaraz vs Bergs at a glance
| Match | Carlos Alcaraz vs Zizou Bergs |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Third round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 12 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Fourth match on court, not before 6:00 PM |
| Our pick | Zizou Bergs +5.5 games · 1.92 · analysis only |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:4, 6:3) |
| Main reason | He won the Tokyo title on 6 October, beating Alex Michelsen, Matteo Arnaldi, Denis Shapovalov (retired), Jaume Munar and Jiri Lehecka 7:6, 6:4 in the final. |
No. 02 · Form
Alcaraz vs Bergs: recent form
Alcaraz has won seven in a row and the Tokyo title; Bergs has not dropped a set in Shanghai
Carlos AlcarazLast 10: 9-1
- Won v Wu Y. 6-3, 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Paul T. 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Shelton B. 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7)
- Won v Fritz T. 6-3, 4-6, 13-11
- Won v Michelsen A. 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1
- Won v Arnaldi M. 7-6(6), 6-1
- Won v Shapovalov D. 7-6(3), 2-1 ret.
- Won v Munar J. 5-7, 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Lehecka J. 7-6(4), 6-4
- Won v Cerundolo J. 6-3, 6-3
Zizou BergsLast 10: 6-4
- Won v Pellegrino A. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Sakellaridis S. 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4
- Won v Taberner C. 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2
- Won v De Jong J. 7-5, 1-6, 6-2, 7-6(2)
- Lost to Van De Zandschulp B. 3-6, 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-3
- Won v Neumayer L. 2-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Rodionov J. 7-6(6), 6-3
- Lost to Lehecka J. 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3
- Won v Kopriva V. 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Buse I. 6-0, 6-3
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Cerundolo J.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Lehecka J.Tokyo · 06.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-4 |
| Won v | Munar J.Tokyo · 05.10.26 | 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Shapovalov D.Tokyo · 04.10.26 | 7-6(3), 2-1 ret. |
| Won v | Arnaldi M.Tokyo · 03.10.26 | 7-6(6), 6-1 |
| Won v | Michelsen A.Tokyo · 01.10.26 | 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Fritz T.Laver Cup · 26.09.26 | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
| Lost to | Shelton B.US Open · 09.09.26 | 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Paul T.US Open · 06.09.26 | 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Wu Y.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Buse I.Shanghai · 10.10.26 | 6-0, 6-3 |
| Won v | Kopriva V.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Lehecka J.Tokyo · 01.10.26 | 6-3, 6-7(3), 6-3 |
| Lost to | Rodionov J.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 7-6(6), 6-3 |
| Won v | Neumayer L.Davis Cup · 18.09.26 | 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Van De Zandschulp B.US Open · 05.09.26 | 3-6, 7-6(3), 4-6, 7-6(6), 6-3 |
| Won v | De Jong J.US Open · 04.09.26 | 7-5, 1-6, 6-2, 7-6(2) |
| Won v | Taberner C.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6-3, 3-6, 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Sakellaridis S.Quebec City Challenger · 21.08.26 | 7-6(3), 4-6, 6-4 |
| Won v | Pellegrino A.Quebec City Challenger · 21.08.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
Alcaraz this autumnHe won the Tokyo title on 6 October, beating Alex Michelsen, Matteo Arnaldi, Denis Shapovalov (retired), Jaume Munar and Jiri Lehecka 7:6, 6:4 in the final. Four of his five Tokyo matches had a tie-break. In Shanghai he beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo 6:3, 6:3 on 10 October after a first-round bye. He is on a seven-match winning streak.
No. 03 · Context
Alcaraz beat Bergs 6:4, 6:3 in Tokyo last year, their only meeting
- Bergs in Shanghai
- The world No. 39 beat Vit Kopriva 6:3, 6:1 and Ignacio Buse 6:0, 6:3 without dropping a set. Before that he lost to Lehecka in three sets in the Tokyo first round and split two Davis Cup singles on clay. He reached the Shanghai quarter-finals last year, where he played Novak Djokovic.
- Season and surface
- Alcaraz is 34-5 this season and 29-3 on hard courts. Bergs is 28-24 and 12-13 on hard courts; his best surface this year is grass (7-3).
- Head to head
- They have met once: Alcaraz won 6:4, 6:3 in the Tokyo second round of 2025, on a hard court, the same score we expect today.
- The workload
- Both have had two days of rest. Alcaraz has played six matches and 14 sets in the last 14 days, including the Tokyo final; Bergs has played three matches and seven sets.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Bergs wins 48.8% of his second-serve points; Alcaraz wins 42.7% of return points
| Stat | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | No. 3 (better) | No. 39 |
| Season record | 34-5 (better) | 28-24 |
| On hard courts | 29-3 (better) | 12-13 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 (better) | 6-4 |
| As favourite | 33-4 (better) | 21-9 |
| As underdog | 1-1 (better) | 6-15 |
| Stat | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (9-1) | 10 (5-5) |
| Aces per match | 3.9 | 6.6 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 3.2 (better) | 5.1 |
| 1st serve in | 65.9% (better) | 55.9% |
| 1st serve points won | 73.2% | 77.7% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 52.7% (better) | 48.8% |
| Service games held | 83.9% (better) | 81.8% |
| Break points saved | 64.5% (better) | 60.7% |
| Stat | Alcaraz | Bergs |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 42.7% (better) | 39.6% |
| Return games won | 33.1% (better) | 24.8% |
| Break points converted | 43.6% | 45.3% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 10 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Carlos Alcaraz 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Zizou Bergs 02.08.2026–07.10.2026 (Tennis Abstract dates are tournament start dates). We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Alcaraz leads 1-0
| 2025 | AlcarazTokyo · Hard · R16 | 6-4 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 4
Who do others back in Alcaraz vs Bergs?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Last Word On Tennis (Harsh Bhoot) | Alcaraz in two sets | Other side |
| Last Word On Tennis (Matt Zemek) | Bergs +5.5 games, low confidence | Same side |
| Australian preview site | Alcaraz to win, under 20.5 games | Other side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Alcaraz 88.5% | Other side |
Our position3 of 4 back Alcaraz. We are on Bergs’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Alcaraz vs Bergs predicted score
Alcaraz in two sets, one break a set
In his last ten matches with stats Bergs won 77.7% of his first-serve points, better than Alcaraz’s 73.2%, but only 48.8% behind his second serve, with 5.1 double faults a match. Alcaraz wins 42.7% of return points and 33.1% of return games, so we expect one break in each set: 6:4, 6:3 is a five-game margin. A tie-break set (7:6, 6:4) or a three-set match also keeps Bergs inside +5.5. The pick loses if Alcaraz wins by six games or more, such as 6:3, 6:3.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:4, 6:3
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 7:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Alcaraz vs Bergs pick: Zizou Bergs +5.5 games
Our pick: Alcaraz 2:0, Bergs +5.5 games, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect Alcaraz to win, and the market agrees: 1.06 for the match says about 90%. The question is the score, and our read is 2:0 with one break a set, a five-game margin that keeps Bergs inside +5.5 games (1.92 in a preview on 11 October; we found no live price for this line this morning). It stays analysis only: we do not stake game markets in tennis yet, and a 6:3, 6:3 like Alcaraz’s win over Cerundolo would be a six-game margin.
Our pick—
Our pickZizou Bergs +5.5 games
Odds1.92
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 6:32:0 in sets
- Alternative
- 7:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Alcaraz’s fitness before the match, such as a medical time-out or a shortened practice: then 2:0 is no longer our main score.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Alcaraz has played six matches in ten days across Tokyo and Shanghai, and dropped sets to Michelsen and Munar in Tokyo.
- Four of his five Tokyo matches went to a tie-break: a 7:6 set changes the score we expect.
- Bergs has won both his Shanghai matches in straight sets, including a 6:0, 6:3 win over Buse.
- He beat Cerundolo 6:3, 6:3 on Saturday: the same margin today is six games, one too many for Bergs +5.5.