Spain have lost four Shanghai finals. Alcaraz arrives with Sinner gone
Our take Spain's best Shanghai chance in 17 years
Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Second round · Hard
Carlos AlcarazvsJuan Manuel Cerundolo prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
10 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Fourth match on court, not before 6:00 PM, not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
6:3 6:3
Analysis onlyALC11:00 UKCERAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Alcaraz vs Cerundolo?
Carlos Alcaraz plays Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the Shanghai Masters second round on Saturday. Our prediction: Alcaraz wins, most likely 6:3, 6:4, but not by more than six games, so our pick is Cerundolo +6.5 games; this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- Our pick
- 56–60%
- Our pick
- Juan Manuel Cerundolo +6.5 games
- Odds at publish
- 1.65
- Set by set
- 6:3, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Alcaraz vs Cerundolo at a glance
| Match | Carlos Alcaraz vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Second round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 10 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Fourth match on court, not before 6:00 PM |
| Our pick | Juan Manuel Cerundolo +6.5 games · 1.65 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 56–60% |
| Predicted score | 2:0 (6:3, 6:4) |
| Main reason | He defended his Tokyo title on 6 October, beating Alex Michelsen 7:6, 4:6, 6:1, Matteo Arnaldi 7:6, 6:1, Denis Shapovalov (retired at 7:6, 2:1), Jaume Munar 5:7, 6:3, 6:1 and Jiri Lehecka 7:6, 6:4 in the final. |
No. 02 · Form
Alcaraz vs Cerundolo: recent form
Alcaraz won five matches in five days in Tokyo; Cerundolo has won five of his last ten
Carlos AlcarazLast 10: 9-1
- Won v Faria J. 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Wu Y. 6-3, 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Paul T. 6-4, 6-3, 6-4
- Lost to Shelton B. 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7)
- Won v Fritz T. 6-3, 4-6, 13-11
- Won v Michelsen A. 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1
- Won v Arnaldi M. 7-6(6), 6-1
- Won v Shapovalov D. 7-6(3), 2-1 ret.
- Won v Munar J. 5-7, 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Lehecka J. 7-6(4), 6-4
Juan Manuel CerundoloLast 10: 5-5
- Won v Rinderknech A. 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(5)
- Lost to Auger Aliassime F. 7-5, 6-1
- Won v Suresh D. 7-6(10), 6-3
- Won v Baez S. 6-2, 4-0 ret.
- Lost to Buse I. 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-2
- Lost to Gea A. 6-3, 2-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Zhou Y. 6-4, 6-3
- Lost to Davidovich Fokina A. 6-4, 6-4
- Lost to Yunchaokete B. 6-2, 5-7, 6-4
- Won v Mejia N. 6-4, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Lehecka J.Tokyo · 06.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-4 |
| Won v | Munar J.Tokyo · 05.10.26 | 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 |
| Won v | Shapovalov D.Tokyo · 04.10.26 | 7-6(3), 2-1 ret. |
| Won v | Arnaldi M.Tokyo · 03.10.26 | 7-6(6), 6-1 |
| Won v | Michelsen A.Tokyo · 01.10.26 | 7-6(1), 4-6, 6-1 |
| Won v | Fritz T.Laver Cup · 26.09.26 | 6-3, 4-6, 13-11 |
| Lost to | Shelton B.US Open · 09.09.26 | 6-7(5), 6-1, 6-3, 1-6, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Paul T.US Open · 06.09.26 | 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Wu Y.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Faria J.US Open · 03.09.26 | 4-6, 6-0, 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Mejia N.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Yunchaokete B.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-2, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Davidovich Fokina A.Chengdu · 26.09.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Zhou Y.Chengdu · 24.09.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Gea A.US Open · 01.09.26 | 6-3, 2-6, 3-6, 6-3, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Buse I.Winston Salem · 27.08.26 | 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-2 |
| Won v | Baez S.Winston Salem · 26.08.26 | 6-2, 4-0 ret. |
| Won v | Suresh D.Winston Salem · 25.08.26 | 7-6(10), 6-3 |
| Lost to | Auger Aliassime F.Cincinnati · 19.08.26 | 7-5, 6-1 |
| Won v | Rinderknech A.Cincinnati · 16.08.26 | 4-6, 7-6(3), 7-6(5) |
Alcaraz in TokyoHe defended his Tokyo title on 6 October, beating Alex Michelsen 7:6, 4:6, 6:1, Matteo Arnaldi 7:6, 6:1, Denis Shapovalov (retired at 7:6, 2:1), Jaume Munar 5:7, 6:3, 6:1 and Jiri Lehecka 7:6, 6:4 in the final. It was his first title since he came back from a wrist injury at the US Open.
No. 03 · Context
Their only meeting was at the 2021 Next Gen ATP Finals
- Cerundolo’s form
- He beat Nicolas Mejia 6:4, 6:4 in the Shanghai first round on 8 October. Before that he lost to Bu Yunchaokete in the Beijing first round and to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in Chengdu; he has won five of his last ten matches.
- Surfaces
- Cerundolo is 25-13 on clay this season and 9-9 on hard courts, a record that includes Challenger events. Alcaraz is 28-3 on hard courts.
- Head-to-head
- They have met once, at the 2021 Next Gen ATP Finals, where Alcaraz won 4:0, 4:1, 2:4, 4:3 in the short-set format. This is their first match with standard scoring.
- The workload
- Alcaraz played six matches and 15 sets in the last 14 days, including four days in a row on court in Tokyo. He did not play Shanghai in 2025; this is his first match of the week.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Alcaraz wins 32% of his return games, Cerundolo 19%
| Stat | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Ranking | No. 3 (better) | No. 55 |
| Season record | 33-5 (better) | 36-24 |
| On hard courts | 28-3 (better) | 9-9 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 (better) | 5-5 |
| As favourite | 32-4 (better) | 21-7 |
| As underdog | 1-1 (better) | 13-17 |
| Stat | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (9-1) | 10 (5-5) |
| Aces per match | 3.3 | 6.4 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 3.6 | 2.9 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 65.5% (better) | 51.8% |
| 1st serve points won | 71.7% | 75.0% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 53.1% | 53.5% (better) |
| Service games held | 83.9% (better) | 78.7% |
| Break points saved | 66.2% (better) | 58.5% |
| Stat | Alcaraz | Cerundolo |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 42.6% (better) | 33.3% |
| Return games won | 32.4% (better) | 18.8% |
| Break points converted | 44.6% (better) | 38.7% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 9 October. Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Carlos Alcaraz 31.08.2026–30.09.2026, Juan Manuel Cerundolo 13.08.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head1 meetings
Alcaraz leads 1-0
| 2021 | AlcarazNext Gen ATP Finals · Hard · RR | 4-0 4-1 2-4 4-3(3) |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Alcaraz vs Cerundolo?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Last Word On Tennis | Alcaraz in two sets | Other side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Alcaraz about 90% | Other side |
Our position2 of 2 back Alcaraz. We are on Cerundolo’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Alcaraz vs Cerundolo predicted score
Alcaraz wins, Cerundolo stays inside +6.5 games
In his last ten matches with stats Alcaraz won 32% of his return games and held serve 84% of the time; Cerundolo won 19% of his return games and put only 52% of first serves in. We expect one break a set for Alcaraz: 6:3, 6:4 is a five-game margin, 6:4, 6:4 four, and any three-set match keeps Cerundolo inside +6.5. The pick loses if Alcaraz wins by seven games or more, such as 6:2, 6:3.
- Predicted score
- 2:0
- 6:3, 6:4
- Alternative
- 2:1
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Alcaraz vs Cerundolo pick: Juan Manuel Cerundolo +6.5 games
Our pick: Cerundolo +6.5 games, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect Alcaraz to win, and the real question is the margin. A straight win at 1.03 says nothing, so we read the score: after a five-match title week in Tokyo, where every first set went to a tie-break or was lost, we expect a 6:3, 6:4 type of win, which keeps Cerundolo inside +6.5 games. It stays analysis only: one quick start from Alcaraz and the margin is gone.
Our pick56–60%
Our pickJuan Manuel Cerundolo +6.5 games
Odds1.65
Main scenario2:0
- Our scenario
- 6:3, 6:42:0 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Alcaraz’s wrist or his fitness after Tokyo before the match.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Alcaraz won the Tokyo title four days ago: six matches in 14 days, the last four on consecutive days.
- In Tokyo he did not win a first set without a tie-break: four went 7:6 and he lost the fifth 5:7.
- Cerundolo has already played a match on these courts this week; Alcaraz plays his first.
- Cerundolo wins 75% of his first-serve points, more than Alcaraz’s 72% over the same span.