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Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Fourth round · Hard
Hubert HurkaczvsAlejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
13 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Fifth match on court, after Zverev v Bublik (not before 6:00 PM), not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
6:1 3:6 6:7
Analysis onlyHUR11:00 UKDAVAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina?
Hubert Hurkacz plays Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the No. 25 seed, in the Shanghai Masters fourth round on Tuesday. Our prediction: Davidovich Fokina wins in three sets with a tie-break; this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our pick
- 48–52%
- Our pick
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win
- Odds at publish
- 1.96
- Set by set
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:7
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina at a glance
| Match | Hubert Hurkacz vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Fourth round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 13 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Fifth match on court, after Zverev v Bublik (not before 6:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win · 1.96 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 48–52% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (7:6, 4:6, 6:7) |
| Main reason | In Shanghai he beat James Duckworth 6:3, 7:6, Novak Djokovic 6:4, 6:3 and Zhou Yi 6:2, 3:6, 6:3. |
No. 02 · Form
Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina: recent form
Hurkacz beat Djokovic in Shanghai; Davidovich Fokina won the Chengdu final against him
Hubert HurkaczLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Harris L. 7-6(10), 6-4
- Won v Shapovalov D. 6(8)-7, 6-3, 6-3
- Lost to Davidovich Fokina A. 6-4, 7-6(7)
- Won v Tien L. 5-7, 6-3, 6-4
- Won v Gea A. 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2
- Won v Khachanov K. 7-6(2), 6-2
- Lost to De Minaur A. 6-4, 3-2 ret.
- Won v Duckworth J. 6-3, 7-6(4)
- Won v Djokovic N. 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Zhou Y. 6-2, 3-6, 6-3
Alejandro Davidovich FokinaLast 10: 7-3
- Lost to Auger Aliassime F. 6(4)-7, 7-6(6), 6-3, 6(2)-7, 6-1
- Won v Trungelliti M. 6-4, 7-5
- Lost to Molcan A. 3-6, 6-1, 6-2
- Won v Cerundolo J. 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Muller A. 6-1, 7-5
- Won v Basilashvili N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-3
- Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 7-6(7)
- Lost to Berrettini M. 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Brooksby J. 6-1, 6-3
- Won v Tiafoe F. 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6)
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Zhou Y.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 |
| Won v | Djokovic N.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Duckworth J.Shanghai · 08.10.26 | 6-3, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | De Minaur A.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 3-2 ret. |
| Won v | Khachanov K.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 7-6(2), 6-2 |
| Won v | Gea A.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 7-6(5), 6(5)-7, 6-2 |
| Won v | Tien L.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Davidovich Fokina A.Chengdu · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Shapovalov D.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 6(8)-7, 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Harris L.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 7-6(10), 6-4 |
| Won v | Tiafoe F.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(4), 4-6, 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Brooksby J.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-1, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Berrettini M.Tokyo (Japan Open) · 01.10.26 | 1-6, 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Chengdu · 29.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(7) |
| Won v | Basilashvili N.Chengdu · 28.09.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 |
| Won v | Muller A.Chengdu · 27.09.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Cerundolo J.Chengdu · 26.09.26 | 6-4, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Molcan A.Umag · 16.07.26 | 3-6, 6-1, 6-2 |
| Won v | Trungelliti M.Umag · 15.07.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Lost to | Auger Aliassime F.Wimbledon · 05.07.26 | 6(4)-7, 7-6(6), 6-3, 6(2)-7, 6-1 |
Hurkacz’s autumnIn Shanghai he beat James Duckworth 6:3, 7:6, Novak Djokovic 6:4, 6:3 and Zhou Yi 6:2, 3:6, 6:3. In Beijing he reached the semi-finals and retired against Alex de Minaur at 4:6, 2:3 on 5 October; the nature of the injury was not made clear. Before that he lost the Chengdu final to Davidovich Fokina.
No. 03 · Context
A near coin flip for a Shanghai quarter-final, last on Stadium Court
- Davidovich Fokina’s autumn
- He won the Chengdu title on 29 September, beating Hurkacz 6:4, 7:6 in the final. He lost his first match in Tokyo to Matteo Berrettini, then beat Jenson Brooksby 6:1, 6:3 and Frances Tiafoe 7:6, 4:6, 7:6 in Shanghai.
- Season and load
- Hurkacz is 36-22 this season and 23-13 on hard courts; Davidovich Fokina is 29-16 and 15-8. Hurkacz has played 19 sets in the last 14 days, Davidovich Fokina 10.
- Head to head
- Davidovich Fokina leads 5-2 and 4-1 on hard courts: US Open 2020, Montpellier 2021, United Cup 2024 and Chengdu 2026. Hurkacz won in Cincinnati in 2021 and on clay in Madrid in 2022.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Hurkacz holds serve in 94.5% of his games, but Davidovich Fokina wins more second-serve points (57.9% to 54.5%)
| Stat | Hurkacz | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 36-22 | 29-16 (better) |
| On hard courts | 23-13 | 15-8 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 (better) | 7-3 |
| As favourite | 28-14 | 26-6 (better) |
| As underdog | 8-8 (better) | 3-10 |
| Stat | Hurkacz | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (9-1) | 10 (7-3) |
| Aces per match | 13.5 (better) | 6.4 |
| Double faults per match | 1.9 (better) | 2.0 |
| 1st serve in | 69.1% (better) | 67.7% |
| 1st serve points won | 79.3% (better) | 74.0% |
| 2nd serve points won | 54.5% | 57.9% (better) |
| Service games held | 94.5% (better) | 87.3% |
| Break points saved | 82.5% (better) | 67.9% |
| Stat | Hurkacz | Davidovich Fokina |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 32.9% | 35.3% (better) |
| Return games won | 16.9% | 18.0% (better) |
| Break points converted | 52.5% (better) | 41.4% |
Form rows: 2026 season to 12 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Hubert Hurkacz 23.09.2026–07.10.2026, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 29.06.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head7 meetings
Davidovich Fokina leads 5-2
| 2026 | Davidovich FokinaChengdu · Hard · F | 6-4 7-6(7) |
| 2024 | Davidovich FokinaUnited Cup · Hard · RR | 3-6 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022 | Davidovich FokinaWimbledon · Grass · R128 | 7-6(4) 6-4 5-7 2-6 7-6(8) |
| 2022 | HurkaczMadrid Masters · Clay · R32 | 6-4 4-6 7-6(5) |
| 2021 | HurkaczCincinnati Masters · Hard · R64 | 6-1 6-7(3) 6-1 |
| 2021 | Davidovich FokinaMontpellier · Hard · R16 | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2020 | Davidovich FokinaUS Open · Hard · R64 | 6-4 1-6 6-2 6-2 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 4
Who do others back in Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Hurkacz the most likely winner, 53% | Other side |
| Australian preview site | Hurkacz to win | Other side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Davidovich Fokina 54% | Same side |
| Last Word on Sports | Davidovich Fokina in three sets | Same side |
Our positionThe sources are split 2–2. We are on Davidovich Fokina’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina predicted score
Tie-breaks and a third set
Hurkacz holds serve in 94.5% of his games over his last ten matches with stats and hits 13.5 aces a match, so tie-breaks are likely. Davidovich Fokina is the better player from the back of the court on second serves (57.9% of his own second-serve points won to 54.5%, and 35.3% of return points to 32.9%). We expect 6:7, 6:4, 7:6 for Davidovich Fokina; the other real outcome is a Hurkacz win in two tie-break sets, as against Djokovic.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:7
- Alternative
- 2:0
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Hurkacz vs Davidovich Fokina pick: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win
Our pick: Davidovich Fokina, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect Davidovich Fokina to win, most likely in a final-set tie-break, but both results are real: the market has Hurkacz at 51.6% and the fresh Elo has Davidovich Fokina at 53.6%. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick48–52%
Our pickAlejandro Davidovich Fokina win
Odds1.96
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:71:2 in sets
What would change our mind News about Hurkacz’s fitness after his Beijing retirement, or a long first match on court that pushes the start late into the evening.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Hurkacz beat Djokovic 6:4, 6:3 in Shanghai and serves 13.5 aces a match to Davidovich Fokina’s 6.4.
- The market (51.6%) and the Dimers model (53%) make Hurkacz the slight favourite.
- Hurkacz saves 82.5% of break points over his last ten matches, Davidovich Fokina 67.9%.
- Davidovich Fokina needed two tie-breaks and three sets to beat Tiafoe on 11 October.