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Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Quarter-final · Hard
Alexander ZverevvsAlex de Minaur prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
15 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
Third match on court, after Gea v Davidovich Fokina (not before 6:00 PM), not before 18:00 local (11:00 UK)
Status
6:4 6:4
Analysis onlyZVE11:00 UKDE Analysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Zverev vs de Minaur?
Alexander Zverev, the top seed, plays Alex de Minaur in the Shanghai Masters quarter-final on Thursday, not before 18:00 local time (11:00 UK). Our pick: Zverev to win in three sets, analysis only.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 60–66%
- Our pick
- Alexander Zverev win
- Odds at publish
- 1.48
- Set by set
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 11:00
Zverev vs de Minaur at a glance
| Match | Alexander Zverev vs Alex de Minaur |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Quarter-final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 15 OCT · 11:00 UK · 18:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · Third match on court, after Gea v Davidovich Fokina (not before 6:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Alexander Zverev win · 1.48 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 60–66% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (7:6, 4:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | He beat Wu Yibing 6:4, 7:6, Quentin Halys 6:4, 6:7, 6:3 and Alexander Bublik 7:6, 4:6, 7:6 on Tuesday. |
No. 02 · Form
Zverev vs de Minaur: recent form
Zverev needed two tie-breaks against Bublik; de Minaur has not dropped a set in Shanghai
Alexander ZverevLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Dodig M. 6-4, 7-6(3)
- Won v Prizmic D. 6-2, 6-4
- Lost to De Minaur A. 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9
- Won v Tien L. 7-6(3), 6-3
- Won v Norrie C. 7-6(1), 6-4
- Won v Shang J. 6-0, 6-3
- Lost to Djokovic N. 4-6, 6-4, 6-4
- Won v Wu Y. 6-4, 7-6(4)
- Won v Halys Q. 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3
- Won v Bublik A. 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1)
Alex de MinaurLast 10: 9-1
- Won v Majchrzak K. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Zverev A. 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9
- Won v Navone M. 7-6(4), 6-2
- Won v Halys Q. 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5
- Won v Rublev A. 1-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 3-2 ret.
- Lost to Djokovic N. 7-6(3), 0-1 ret.
- Won v Molcan A.
- Won v Sakamoto R. 7-6(6), 6-4
- Won v Khachanov K. 6-3, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Bublik A.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 7-6(6), 4-6, 7-6(1) |
| Won v | Halys Q.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 6-4, 6(8)-7, 6-3 |
| Won v | Wu Y.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 6-4, 7-6(4) |
| Lost to | Djokovic N.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 |
| Won v | Shang J.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-0, 6-3 |
| Won v | Norrie C.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 7-6(1), 6-4 |
| Won v | Tien L.Laver Cup · 27.09.26 | 7-6(3), 6-3 |
| Lost to | De Minaur A.Laver Cup · 26.09.26 | 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9 |
| Won v | Prizmic D.Davis Cup · 20.09.26 | 6-2, 6-4 |
| Won v | Dodig M.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 6-4, 7-6(3) |
| Won v | Khachanov K.Shanghai · 13.10.26 | 6-3, 6-4 |
| Won v | Sakamoto R.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(6), 6-4 |
| Won v | Molcan A.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | |
| Lost to | Djokovic N.Beijing · 06.10.26 | 7-6(3), 0-1 ret. |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 3-2 ret. |
| Won v | Rublev A.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Halys Q.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 |
| Won v | Navone M.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-2 |
| Won v | Zverev A.Laver Cup · 26.09.26 | 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9 |
| Won v | Majchrzak K.Davis Cup · 20.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
Zverev’s weekHe beat Wu Yibing 6:4, 7:6, Quentin Halys 6:4, 6:7, 6:3 and Alexander Bublik 7:6, 4:6, 7:6 on Tuesday. After the Bublik match he said his ankle had flared up again and slowed him from the second set on (AFP).
No. 03 · Context
The top seed against the No. 9 seed for a place in the Shanghai semi-finals
- De Minaur’s week
- A walkover from Alex Molcan, then Rei Sakamoto 7:6, 6:4 and Karen Khachanov 6:3, 6:4: no set dropped in Shanghai. A week earlier he reached the Beijing final and retired against Novak Djokovic after losing the first set.
- Season and surface
- Zverev is 61-15 this season and 30-9 on hard courts, and won the US Open in September. De Minaur is 44-19 and 26-10 on hard courts; both have won 8 or more of their last 10.
- Head to head
- Zverev leads 8-4 in the Tennis Abstract record, 6-4 on hard courts, and beat de Minaur 6:1, 6:4 here in 2018. De Minaur won the last two, both at the Laver Cup, the latest 2:6, 7:6, 11-9 on 26 September.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Zverev holds serve in 93.4% of his games over his last ten matches, de Minaur in 82.2%
| Stat | Zverev | de Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 61-15 (better) | 44-19 |
| On hard courts | 30-9 (better) | 26-10 |
| Last 10 matches | 8-2 | 9-1 (better) |
| As favourite | 60-9 (better) | 41-16 |
| As underdog | 1-6 | 3-3 (better) |
| Stat | Zverev | de Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (8-2) | 10 (8-2) |
| Aces per match | 11.6 (better) | 5.5 |
| Double faults per match | 2.2 (better) | 2.4 |
| 1st serve in | 72.4% (better) | 58.4% |
| 1st serve points won | 79.0% (better) | 71.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 57.2% | 58.0% (better) |
| Service games held | 93.4% (better) | 82.2% |
| Break points saved | 65.4% | 71.6% (better) |
| Stat | Zverev | de Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 33.8% | 37.6% (better) |
| Return games won | 16.5% | 21.0% (better) |
| Break points converted | 40.0% | 43.9% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 14 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Alexander Zverev 31.08.2026–07.10.2026, Alex de Minaur 13.08.2026–07.10.2026.. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head12 meetings
Zverev leads 8-4
| 2026 | De MinaurLaver Cup · Hard · RR | 2-6 7-6(5) [11-9] |
| 2025 | De MinaurLaver Cup · Hard · RR | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2024 | ZverevRoland Garros · Clay · QF | 6-4 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2024 | ZverevIndian Wells Masters · Hard · R16 | 5-7 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024 | De MinaurUnited Cup · Hard · SF | 5-7 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022 | ZverevRome Masters · Clay · R16 | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2021 | ZverevVienna · Hard · R16 | 6-2 3-6 6-2 |
| 2020 | De MinaurAtp Cup · Hard · RR | 4-6 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2019 | ZverevAcapulco · Hard · QF | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2018 | ZverevShanghai Masters · Hard · R16 | 6-1 6-4 |
| 2018 | ZverevWashington · Hard · F | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2018 | ZverevDavis Cup WG R1: AUS vs GER · Hard · RR | 7-5 4-6 4-6 6-3 7-6(4) |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Zverev vs de Minaur?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis Abstract Elo (tournament forecast) | Zverev 64.2% to reach the semi-finals | Same side |
Our position1 of 1 back Zverev. We are on Zverev’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Zverev vs de Minaur predicted score
Zverev in three sets
Zverev’s serve should carry him: 11.6 aces a match and 93.4% of service games held over his last ten matches, against de Minaur’s 5.5 and 82.2%. De Minaur is the better returner (21.0% of return games won against 16.5%) and makes opponents run, which is exactly what a sore ankle does not want. We expect tight sets and tie-breaks, as in Zverev’s last two matches: 7:6, 4:6, 6:4. If the ankle limits his movement, a de Minaur win in two sets is the other real outcome.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 0:2
- 4:6, 4:6
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Zverev vs de Minaur pick: Alexander Zverev win
Zverev to win, analysis only
Why analysis only
Zverev is the right side on serve, ranking and form, but his ankle has troubled him in all three Shanghai matches and de Minaur has won their last two meetings, so we are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick60–66%
Our pickAlexander Zverev win
Odds1.48
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 7:6, 4:6, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 4:6, 4:60:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any news about Zverev’s ankle before the match: heavy strapping, a cancelled practice or words from his team.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Zverev’s ankle has come up in each of his three Shanghai matches, and he said it flared up again against Bublik; there is no diagnosis.
- De Minaur has won their last two meetings and is 9-1 in his last ten matches.
- De Minaur has spent four sets on court this week against Zverev’s eight, and two of Zverev’s three wins went the distance.