Swiatek's physio told her three times to stop. Now a Ningbo title alone is not enough
Our take Tokyo, not Ningbo, decides Swiatek's season
Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · WTA 1000 · Final · Hard
Sonay KartalvsMaja Chwalinska prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Date
18 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Second match on court (not before 6:30 PM), after the doubles final, not before 18:30 local (11:30 UK)
Status
6:2 4:6 2:6
Analysis onlyKAR11:30 UKCHWAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Kartal vs Chwalinska?
Sonay Kartal plays Maja Chwalinska in the Wuhan Open final on Sunday, a first meeting between two players chasing their first WTA 1000 title. Our pick is Kartal to win, most likely in three sets.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 51–54%
- Our pick
- Sonay Kartal win
- Odds at publish
- 1.85
- Set by set
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 11:30
Kartal vs Chwalinska at a glance
| Match | Sonay Kartal vs Maja Chwalinska |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Final |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 18 OCT · 11:30 UK · 18:30 local |
| Court | Center Court · Second match on court (not before 6:30 PM), after the doubles final |
| Our pick | Sonay Kartal win · 1.85 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 51–54% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 3:6, 6:4) |
| Main reason | Kartal has beaten Belinda Bencic, Jasmine Paolini, Elina Svitolina and Jelena Ostapenko this week and dropped just one set, against Svitolina. |
No. 02 · Form
Kartal vs Chwalinska: recent form
Kartal has dropped one set all week; Chwalinska beat Swiatek 7:5, 6:1 in the semi-final
Sonay KartalLast 10: 7-3
- Lost to Rybakina E. 6-4, 4-3 ret.
- Lost to Bouzkova M. 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4
- Won v Lazaro Garcia A. 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Wang X. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Charaeva A. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Kalinina A. 7-5, 6-3
- Won v Bencic B. 6-0, 7-5
- Won v Paolini J. 6-2, 6-0
- Won v Svitolina E. 6-2, 2-6, 6-4
- Won v Ostapenko J. 7-6(9), 7-6(5)
Maja ChwalinskaLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Sramkova R. 6-4, 6-2
- Won v Oliynykova O. 6-0, 6-1
- Won v Mertens E. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Fernandez L. 1-6, 6-4, 6-2
- Lost to Yastremska D. 6-3, 6-1
- Won v Sherif M. 6-3, 6-2
- Won v Bouzkova M. 1-6, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Jovic I. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Sakkari M. 6-0, 3-6, 7-5
- Won v Swiatek I. 7-5, 6-1
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Ostapenko J.Wuhan · 17.10.26 | 7-6(9), 7-6(5) |
| Won v | Svitolina E.Wuhan · 16.10.26 | 6-2, 2-6, 6-4 |
| Won v | Paolini J.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-2, 6-0 |
| Won v | Bencic B.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 6-0, 7-5 |
| Won v | Kalinina A.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Charaeva A.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Wang X.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Lazaro Garcia A.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 6-2, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Bouzkova M.Billie Jean King Cup · 22.09.26 | 7-6(2), 4-6, 6-4 |
| Lost to | Rybakina E.Indian Wells · 12.03.26 | 6-4, 4-3 ret. |
| Won v | Swiatek I.Wuhan · 17.10.26 | 7-5, 6-1 |
| Won v | Sakkari M.Wuhan · 16.10.26 | 6-0, 3-6, 7-5 |
| Won v | Jovic I.Wuhan · 15.10.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Won v | Bouzkova M.Wuhan · 14.10.26 | 1-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Sherif M.Wuhan · 13.10.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Yastremska D.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 6-3, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Fernandez L.Singapore WTA · 26.09.26 | 1-6, 6-4, 6-2 |
| Won v | Mertens E.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Oliynykova O.Singapore WTA · 23.09.26 | 6-0, 6-1 |
| Won v | Sramkova R.Singapore WTA · 21.09.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
Kartal this weekShe beat Anhelina Kalinina 7:5, 6:3, Belinda Bencic 6:0, 7:5, Jasmine Paolini 6:2, 6:0, Elina Svitolina 6:2, 2:6, 6:4 and Jelena Ostapenko 7:6(9), 7:6(5). She missed about six months with a back injury after retiring against Elena Rybakina at Indian Wells in March; the WTA says Wuhan is her second tournament since her return.
No. 03 · Context
An unexpected WTA 1000 final, a first meeting and a first title at this level for both
- Chwalinska this week
- She beat Mayar Sherif 6:3, 6:2, Marie Bouzkova 1:6, 6:1, 6:1, Ivana Jovic 6:4, 6:1, Maria Sakkari 6:0, 3:6, 7:5 and Iga Swiatek 7:5, 6:1 in the semi-final. She is seeded 16th and reached the Roland Garros final as a qualifier this year (Last Word On Sports).
- What is at stake
- It is a first WTA 1000 final for both. Kartal is ranked 170th after her time out, and Last Word On Sports says the title would lift her more than 100 places.
- Head to head
- This is their first meeting. Chwalinska is left-handed.
- Rest and load
- Both played their semi-finals on Saturday. Chwalinska has been on court five days in a row with two three-setters this week, Kartal four days in a row with one three-setter. Neither has an injury reported for the final.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Kartal holds 71.4% of her service games this season, Chwalinska 65.2%
| Stat | Kartal | Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 19-8 (better) | 38-18 |
| On outdoor hard courts | 19-7 (better) | 9-7 |
| Last 10 matches | 7-3 | 8-2 (better) |
| Stat | Kartal | Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Service games held | 71.4% (better) | 65.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 65.7% (better) | 60.2% |
| 2nd serve points won | 51.7% (better) | 49.2% |
| Double faults per match | 1.1 (better) | 2.0 |
| Stat | Kartal | Chwalinska |
|---|---|---|
| Return games won | 34.6% | 41.0% (better) |
| Break points converted | 45.4% | 55.8% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 17 October (Tennis Explorer; outdoor hard from Flashscore). Serve and return: 2026 season (official WTA statistics).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to headFirst meeting.
First meeting
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Kartal vs Chwalinska?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Last Word On Tennis | Kartal in three sets | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Kartal, 64.1% | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Kartal. We are on Kartal’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Kartal vs Chwalinska predicted score
Kartal in three sets
Chwalinska wins 41.0% of her return games this season and converts 55.8% of her break points, so Kartal will not have an easy serve. Kartal wins more behind her own first serve (65.7% against 60.2%) and gives away fewer cheap points. We expect something like 6:4, 3:6, 6:4. The alternative is Chwalinska in two sets, as she did against Swiatek, if Kartal's first serve deserts her.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:4
- Alternative
- 0:2
- 5:7, 4:6
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Kartal vs Chwalinska pick: Sonay Kartal win
Kartal to win the match
Why analysis only
Odds of 1.85 sit outside the range we use for tennis singles (1.25 to 1.45), and the rating model is far more confident than the market, so this final is an analysis without a bet.
Our pick51–54%
Our pickSonay Kartal win
Odds1.85
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 5:7, 4:60:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any sign of Kartal's back troubling her, or the odds moving clearly towards Chwalinska before the start.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- The rating model and the market disagree: the fresh Elo gives Kartal about 61%, the odds only about 51%, a gap that usually means the market knows something the model does not.
- Chwalinska has just beaten Swiatek 7:5, 6:1 and is the better returner this season.
- Kartal is playing her sixth match in seven days after six months out with a back injury, against a left-hander she has never faced.