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Kirill Kaprizov · Connor McDavid · Minnesota Wild · Edmonton Oilers

Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel

By the Data Desk · ·

First reported by NHL.com (Heather Rule) · 19 OCT 03:34

Kirill Kaprizov's power-play shot at 3:06 of the second period beat Columbus 2-1 on Sunday and made him the fastest player to 10 goals in Wild history, three games quicker than Brian Rolston's 12 in 2006-07. On Tuesday he brings the NHL goal lead to Edmonton, where Connor McDavid has 23 points in eight games, NHL.com reported.

  • Kaprizov has 10 goals and 15 points in 9 games, two of them game-winners, on 31 shots: a 32.3 per cent shooting rate. His point streak is six games (7 goals, 5 assists).
  • McDavid has 6 goals, 17 assists and a +19 in 8 games; the 17 assists tie Mario Lemieux (1995-96) and Wayne Gretzky (1986-87) for the most through a player's first eight games, NHL.com says.
  • Minnesota (6-2-1) visit Edmonton (6-1-1) on Tuesday, 20 October, at 19:00 local, 01:00 UTC on Wednesday. Both teams have 13 points.
Why it mattersThe NHL's goal leader and its points leader meet two days from now. One of the two streaks rests on a number that rarely holds, and that tells you how Minnesota have to play at Rogers Place.

Sunday's winner, set up by Maxim Shabanov and Joel Eriksson Ek, went short side over Cam Talbot's shoulder from low in the left circle, and Talbot admitted: "I think I gave him a little bit too much." Danila Yurov had opened the scoring and Adam Fantilli tied it a minute later; Minnesota outshot Columbus 34-14 and are 4-0-0 at home. Three days after Joel Hofer's hit, Kaprizov told NHL.com that the opening games were hard: "Don't feel like power right away."

McDavid had two goals and three assists in Saturday's 6-2 win at Utah and has a point in all eight games. According to NHL.com, only Lemieux, in seven games in 1995-96, reached 20 points faster. "It looks like he's hit another gear this year, finishing like crazy," Zach Hyman said. Edmonton lead the league with 4.63 goals a game and are 5-0-0 on the road, but 1-1-1 at home after a 4-2 loss to Utah on Thursday.

The two runs are built differently. Kaprizov has scored 10 of Minnesota's 28 goals, and his career shooting rate over 1,429 NHL shots is 16.8 per cent; at that rate his 31 shots would be worth about five goals, not ten. McDavid's finishing is hot too, 6 goals on 18 shots, but 17 of his 23 points are assists, and he has a point on 23 of Edmonton's 37 goals.

What happens next: the Wild play at Rogers Place on Tuesday, 20 October, at 19:00 Edmonton time (01:00 UTC on Wednesday). Minnesota are 2-2-1 away from home, and they allow 2.33 goals a game, the fifth-lowest rate in the NHL.

Our take

Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't

Kaprizov is shooting 32.3 per cent, almost double his career 16.8, and a rate like that always comes back down; McDavid's season leans on 17 assists, which do not need his own shots to keep going in. That shapes Tuesday: Minnesota will not win a shootout with a team scoring 4.63 a game. If the Wild keep Edmonton near their own 2.33 goals against, one Kaprizov goal can be enough. If Kaprizov is still above 25 per cent after 20 games, we were wrong about the finishing, and we will say so here.

Kaprizov, Joel Hofer and the hit →Our Wild v Blue Jackets analysis →Our Mammoth v Oilers analysis →Hockey news →
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Updates

  1. Update, Tuesday 20 October: Edmonton won 4-3 in overtime. Kaprizov set up Joel Eriksson Ek's opener and scored his 11th goal at 10:30 of the third period to make it 3-2, before Ryan Hartman tied it at 13:07. McDavid had three assists: on both of Leon Draisaitl's power-play goals and on Evan Bouchard's power-play winner at 3:32 of overtime. He now has 26 points in nine games, with a point in every one. Kaprizov leads the NHL with 11 goals and is shooting 32.4 per cent, 11 from 34 shots (NHL.com), so our call that the rate comes down still needs more games.
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