McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Edmonton
EdmontonvsCarolina Edmonton Oilers vs Carolina Hurricanes · hockey prediction
Face-off · UK
02:00
Date · UK
23 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 22 OCT
City
Edmonton
Status
Pre-match
EDM19:00CARPre-match
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Edmonton vs Carolina?
Our Oilers vs Hurricanes prediction: the Carolina Hurricanes win at Rogers Place against the Edmonton Oilers, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 4:3 to Carolina. Two of the NHL's best starts meet: Edmonton are 7-1-1 with Connor McDavid on 6 goals and 20 assists in nine games, Carolina 8-2-1 with a penalty kill at 89.2%. The Hurricanes outshoot their opponents 34.1 to 22.4 a game, while Edmonton are expected to start Devon Levi, who spent last season in the AHL. The line calls it close to 50-50. Our pick: Carolina to win · analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 4:3
- 3:4
- Our estimate
- 50–54%
- Market
- Carolina win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.86
Edmonton vs Carolina at a glance
| Match | Edmonton Oilers vs Carolina Hurricanes |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 23 OCT · 02:00 UK |
| Venue | Rogers Place, Edmonton |
| Our pick | Carolina win · incl. OT · 1.86 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 50–54% |
| Predicted score | 3:4 |
| Main reason | We think Carolina's control of the shots, 34.1 for and 22.4 against a game, and a penalty kill at 89.2% matter more than Edmonton's hot finishing, and Levi faces a team that averages 34.1 shots a game. |
No. 04 · Form
Edmonton vs Carolina: recent form
Edmonton 4-1 in their last 5. Carolina 4-1.
- Edmonton
- Won 4:3 in overtime at home to Minnesota on Tue 20 Oct · two days of rest · no travel · second home game in a row
- Carolina
- Won 6:3 in Vancouver on Tue 20 Oct · two days of rest · 817 km flight, one time zone east · fourth road game in a row
Edmonton4-1
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Minnesota4:3 OT
- Winvs Utah6:2
- Lossvs Utah2:4
- Winvs Los Angeles4:1
- Winvs San Jose3:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Carolina4-1
- Winvs Vancouver6:3
- Lossvs Calgary2:3
- Winvs Winnipeg3:2
- Winvs Washington4:2
- Winvs Philadelphia4:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factEdmonton are 4-1 in their last five: 3:1 in San Jose, 4:1 in Los Angeles, a 2:4 home loss to Utah, 6:2 in Utah two days later and 4:3 in overtime against Minnesota on Tuesday. Carolina are also 4-1: 4:1 in Philadelphia, 4:2 against Washington, 3:2 in Winnipeg, a 2:3 loss in Calgary and 6:3 in Vancouver on Tuesday. Edmonton score 4.56 goals a game, helped by a 31.0% power play, but take only 25.2 shots and allow 26.6. Last season Carolina took 68.9% of the points with +0.68 a game; Edmonton 56.7% and +0.16.
| Attack & defence | EDM | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 7-1-1 | 8-2-1 |
| Points % | 83.3% | 77.3% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.56 | +1.36 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 25.2 | 34.1 |
| Shots against | 26.6 | 22.4 |
| Special teams | EDM | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 31.0% | 22.7% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 74.1% | 89.2% |
| Last season | EDM | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 41-30-11 | 53-22-7 |
| Points % | 56.7% | 68.9% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.16 | +0.68 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 29.7 | 32.2 |
| Shots against | 26.7 | 23.9 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 30.6% | 24.9% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 77.8% | 80.5% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Edmonton vs Carolina: starting goalies and team news
Levi against Bussi, and Nugent-Hopkins a doubt.
EdmontonExpected
Devon Levi- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .898
- Starts
- 6
- NHL career starts
- 42
CarolinaExpected
Brandon Bussi- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .882
- Starts
- 5
- SV% last season
- .895
- SV% 3 seasons
- .893
- NHL career starts
- 44
Edmonton
- DoubtRyan Nugent-HopkinsLower body, might be available on Thursday (Jason Gregor)
- OutFrederik AndersenKnee, not expected back until about December
- OutJason DickinsonUndisclosed injury
- OutMatt SavoieLower body, long-term injured reserve
- OutMattias JanmarkInjured reserve, no timeline for a return
- OutAlec RegulaUndisclosed, long-term injured reserve
Carolina
- OutTaylor HallInjured reserve
- OutJordan StaalInjured reserve
- OutMark JankowskiLower body, sent back to Raleigh for assessment
- OutAlexander NikishinContract dispute, injured non-roster list
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Devon Levi for Edmonton and Brandon Bussi for Carolina, both unconfirmed when we checked at about 05:15 UTC on 22 October. Levi has saved .898 in six starts this season, has 42 NHL starts in his career and played Tuesday's overtime win over Minnesota; Frederik Andersen is out with a knee injury until about December. Bussi has saved .882 in five starts after .895 in 39 starts last season; Pyotr Kochetkov played in Vancouver. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (lower body) might be available on Thursday, according to Jason Gregor via ESPN; we found no confirmation. Edmonton also miss Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie and Mattias Janmark. Carolina are without Taylor Hall, Jordan Staal and Mark Jankowski, and Alexander Nikishin is on the non-roster list in a contract dispute.
In the news
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Edmonton vs Carolina?
Both models we found pick Carolina.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Carolina 55.0%, projected 3.60 to 3.07 | Same side |
| Dimers | Carolina 52.6% | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and stay close to the line on the size. DRatings gives Carolina 55.0% and Dimers 52.6%, against roughly 51% in the line. We put Carolina at 50 to 54%: the shot numbers and the goalie matchup point their way, but McDavid and Leon Draisaitl at home can turn any game in a few shifts, so the margin is thin. We could not check MoneyPuck.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Edmonton vs Carolina predicted score
Carolina's shot volume against McDavid's power play.
3:4 to Carolina is our main score: the Hurricanes keep the puck in the Edmonton zone, Sebastian Aho (6 goals, 8 assists) and Andrei Svechnikov (6 goals, 5 assists) test Levi more than 30 times, and Edmonton answer on the power play but not often enough. 4:3 to Edmonton in overtime is the alternative: McDavid, Evan Bouchard (7 goals, 11 assists) and Draisaitl (8 goals, 8 assists) punish Carolina's penalties, and three on three suits the Oilers' stars. Both scenarios are one-goal games. Any Carolina win makes our pick, overtime and the shootout included; any Edmonton win beats it.
- Predicted score
- 3:4
- Alternative
- 4:3
Your score
EDM
CAR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Edmonton vs Carolina pick: Carolina win · incl. OT
Carolina win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Carolina's control of the shots, 34.1 for and 22.4 against a game, and a penalty kill at 89.2% matter more than Edmonton's hot finishing, and Levi faces a team that averages 34.1 shots a game. Both models we found see the same side. But McDavid's form, Edmonton's power play and Carolina's long road trip keep the game level, so both results are possible and we are not sure enough to bet.
Our probability50–54%
Our pickCarolina win · incl. OT
Odds1.86
Main scenario3:4
- Our scenario
- 3:4alternative 4:3
What would change our mind Ryan Nugent-Hopkins confirmed in the line-up and Carolina losing another forward before the game would move our pick towards Edmonton.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton win · incl. OT | 1.98 | 50.5% |
| Carolina win · incl. OT | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Edmonton win in 60 min | 2.53 | 39.5% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.25 | 23.5% |
| Carolina win in 60 min | 2.35 | 42.6% |
| Edmonton +1.5 | 1.39 | 71.9% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- McDavid has 26 points in nine games and Edmonton's power play scores on 31.0% of chances.
- Carolina play their fourth road game in a row, after an 817 km flight from Vancouver, without Hall and Staal.
- Bussi has saved only .882 this season, lower than Levi's .898.
- The line is near 50-50 and neither goalie was confirmed by a reporter.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Carolina win · incl. OT at 1.86 · analysis only. We expect 3:4; at close to 50-50 the game is too open for a bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Carolina win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
Read next
- Edmonton's earlier gameMammoth vs Oilers prediction, 17 October
- Carolina's earlier gameFlames vs Hurricanes prediction, 18 October
- Same nightMaple Leafs vs Rangers prediction, 22 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.