McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · St. Paul
MinnesotavsColumbus Minnesota Wild vs Columbus Blue Jackets · hockey prediction
Score
2:1
Date · UK
18 OCT
Local time
17:00 · 18 OCT
City
St. Paul
Status
Full time
MIN2:1CBJFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Minnesota vs Columbus?
Our Wild vs Blue Jackets prediction: Minnesota to win, overtime included, with a main score of 4:2. The Minnesota Wild have had three days of rest and have Jesper Wallstedt confirmed in goal; the Columbus Blue Jackets play their second night in a row after a 1:0 overtime win over the Rangers on Saturday, so their backup Cam Talbot is the likely starter. The line has Minnesota at 1.52, which is outside the range we bet in hockey, so this is analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:2
- Our estimate
- 62–65%
- Market
- Minnesota win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.52
Minnesota vs Columbus at a glance
| Match | Minnesota Wild vs Columbus Blue Jackets |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 23:00 UK |
| Venue | Grand Casino Arena, St. Paul |
| Our pick | Minnesota win · incl. OT · 1.52 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 62–65% |
| Predicted score | 4:2 |
| Main reason | Minnesota are rested, at home and have their confirmed starter in goal; Columbus play the second night of a back-to-back with a likely backup who has saved .822 this season. |
No. 04 · Form
Minnesota vs Columbus: recent form
Minnesota 3-2 in their last 5. Columbus 2-3.
- Minnesota
- Won 5:4 at home to St. Louis on Thu 15 Oct · three days of rest · no travel · second home game in a row
- Columbus
- Won 1:0 in overtime at home to the NY Rangers on Sat 17 Oct · second night of a back-to-back · 995 km flight to St. Paul, one time zone west · first road game of the trip
Minnesota3-2
- Winvs St. Louis5:4
- Lossvs Winnipeg2:5
- Winvs Vegas4:2
- Winvs Florida4:1
- Lossvs Tampa Bay2:3
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Columbus2-3
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs NY Rangers1:0 OT
- Lossvs Florida3:7
- Lossvs St. Louis3:5
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Pittsburgh3:2 SO
- Lossvs Utah1:4
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.20
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Key factMinnesota are 5-2-1 with +0.75 goals a game and the best power play of the two by a distance: 33.3% against 13.3%. Their last five: 5:4 over St. Louis, 2:5 in Winnipeg, 4:2 over Vegas, 4:1 in Florida and 2:3 in Tampa Bay. Columbus are 3-3-0 and have conceded 3.50 a game, including 3:7 at home to Florida on Tuesday; two of their three wins came after regulation, 1:0 in overtime against the Rangers and 3:2 in a shootout against Pittsburgh.
| Attack & defence | MIN | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 5-2-1 | 3-3-0 |
| Points % | 68.8% | 50.0% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.75 | -0.67 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3.25 | 2.83 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 2.50 | 3.50 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 29.1 | 28.0 |
| Shots against | 26.8 | 27.2 |
| Special teams | MIN | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 33.3% | 13.3% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 88.5% | 66.7% |
| Last season | MIN | CBJ |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 46-24-12 | 40-30-12 |
| Points % | 63.4% | 56.1% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.39 | 0.00 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 29.2 | 29.4 |
| Shots against | 29.4 | 28.8 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 25.2% | 18.9% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 79.8% | 76.0% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Minnesota vs Columbus: starting goalies and team news
Minnesota's goalie is confirmed; Columbus will probably turn to their backup.
MinnesotaConfirmed
Jesper Wallstedt- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .921
- Starts
- 7
- SV% last season
- .916
- SV% 3 seasons
- .913
- NHL career starts
- 45
ColumbusExpected
Cam Talbot- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .822
- Starts
- 2
- SV% last season
- .883
- SV% 3 seasons
- .893
- NHL career starts
- 535
Minnesota
- OutBrock FaberFractured skull, no timetable for a return
- OutFilip GustavssonHip, long-term injured reserve
- OutJared SpurgeonOut, no reason given
- OutOlli MaattaOut, no reason given
- OutNico SturmUpper body, injured reserve
- OutMarcus FolignoInjured reserve
Columbus
No absences reported.
TacticsJesper Wallstedt starts for Minnesota: Dylan Loucks reported it on Saturday afternoon (via Daily Faceoff). He has saved .921 in seven starts this season and .916 last season, and with Filip Gustavsson on long-term injured reserve with a hip problem he is clearly the number one. For Columbus, Jet Greaves stopped every shot against the Rangers on Saturday. Teams rarely start the same goalie on both nights of a back-to-back, so Cam Talbot is our expected starter; he has saved .822 in two starts this season and .893 over three seasons, against .913 for Greaves. That is not confirmed: on Sunday morning Daily Faceoff still listed Greaves, unconfirmed and without a source. Minnesota have a long injury list, according to ESPN's NHL injury report: Brock Faber (fractured skull, no timetable), Jared Spurgeon, Olli Maatta, Nico Sturm and Marcus Foligno are out. Columbus have no injuries listed there.
In the news
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
Kaprizov has 9 goals in 8 games. Blues goalie Joel Hofer left his net to hit him
Our take This is a Player Safety case, not a footnote
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Minnesota vs Columbus?
The one model we found agrees: Minnesota, by about a goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Minnesota 61.8%, projected 3.64 to 2.55 | Same side |
Our positionDRatings is close to the line (Minnesota about 62%) and projects a margin of about one goal. We see the same winner and a slightly bigger gap if Talbot starts, because his numbers this season are well below Greaves'. Dimers had no prediction for this game when we checked.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Minnesota vs Columbus predicted score
Minnesota's power play against a tired team and its backup goalie.
4:2 to Minnesota is our main score. Columbus arrive after a 995 km flight from a game that went to overtime the night before, their penalty kill has stopped only 66.7% of power plays this season, and Minnesota have converted a third of theirs. With Wallstedt confirmed, the home side has the steadier goalie too. 2:3 to Columbus after overtime is the alternative: they kept the Rangers off the board on Saturday and have shown they can drag games into extra time. Any Minnesota win counts for our pick, in regulation, overtime or the shootout.
- Predicted score
- 4:2
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
MIN
CBJ
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Minnesota vs Columbus pick: Minnesota win · incl. OT
Minnesota win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Minnesota are rested, at home and have their confirmed starter in goal; Columbus play the second night of a back-to-back with a likely backup who has saved .822 this season. The special teams gap is large: Minnesota score on 33.3% of power plays and Columbus kill only 66.7%. We expect Minnesota to win, but at 1.52 this is outside our betting range, so it stays an analysis.
Our probability62–65%
Our pickMinnesota win · incl. OT
Odds1.52
Main scenario4:2
- Our scenario
- 4:2alternative 2:3
What would change our mind Jet Greaves confirmed in the Columbus goal: then we would expect a game close to the line and would keep Minnesota only as a narrow call.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota win · incl. OT | 1.52 | 65.8% |
| Columbus win · incl. OT | 2.53 | 39.5% |
| Minnesota win in 60 min | 1.84 | 54.3% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.45 | 22.5% |
| Columbus win in 60 min | 3.40 | 29.4% |
| Columbus +1.5 | 1.63 | 61.3% |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.65 | 60.6% |
| Under 5.5 goals | 2.22 | 45% |
Odds snapshot 18 OCT 05:20 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Columbus won two of their last five after regulation and have shown they can hold a low score, as in the 1:0 against the Rangers.
- If Greaves starts a second night in a row, the gap in goal that we expect disappears.
- It is early in the season: eight and six games say little, and last season's gap (63.4% of points against 56.1%) is only moderate.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Minnesota win · incl. OT at 1.52 · analysis only. We expect 4:2; the price is outside our hockey betting range and the Columbus goalie is not confirmed, so there is no bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Minnesota win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:2Minnesota win · incl. OT at 1.52
- Happened
- 2:1Minnesota win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.