McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Salt Lake City
UtahvsEdmonton Utah Mammoth vs Edmonton Oilers · hockey prediction
Score
2:6
Date · UK
18 OCT
Local time
20:00 · 17 OCT
City
Salt Lake City
Status
Full time
UTA2:6EDMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Utah vs Edmonton?
Our Mammoth vs Oilers prediction: a high-scoring rematch, with over 6.5 goals and a main score of 4:3 to Utah. Two nights after the Utah Mammoth won 4:2 in Edmonton, the Edmonton Oilers visit the Delta Center. Utah's power play has scored on 37.5% of its chances this season, Edmonton's penalty kill has stopped only 68.2%, and Tristan Jarry, confirmed in the Edmonton goal, is at .837. Our pick is over 6.5 goals, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:3
- Our estimate
- 50–54%
- Market
- Over 6.5 goals
- Price now
- 1.96
Utah vs Edmonton at a glance
| Match | Utah Mammoth vs Edmonton Oilers |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 03:00 UK |
| Venue | Delta Center, Salt Lake City |
| Our pick | Over 6.5 goals · 1.96 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 50–54% |
| Predicted score | 4:3 |
| Main reason | The special teams numbers point one way: Utah's power play at 37.5% against an Edmonton penalty kill at 68.2%. |
No. 04 · Form
Utah vs Edmonton: recent form
Utah 4-1 in their last 5. Edmonton 4-1.
- Utah
- Won 4:2 in Edmonton on Thu 15 Oct · two days of rest · 1426 km flight home, same time zone
- Edmonton
- Lost 2:4 at home to Utah on Thu 15 Oct · two days of rest · 1426 km flight, same time zone
Utah4-1
- Winvs Edmonton4:2
- Winvs Toronto5:4
- Winvs Buffalo4:1
- Lossvs Boston1:6
- Winvs New Jersey5:3
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.20
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Edmonton4-1
- Lossvs Utah2:4
- Winvs Los Angeles4:1
- Winvs San Jose3:1
- Winvs Anaheim5:2
- Winvs Seattle3:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 1.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factUtah are 6-2-0 and have won four of their last five: 5:3 in New Jersey, 1:6 in Boston, 4:1 in Buffalo, 5:4 over Toronto and 4:2 in Edmonton on Thursday. Edmonton are 5-1-1 and had won four straight before Thursday: 3:1 over Seattle, 5:2 in Anaheim, 3:1 in San Jose and 4:1 in Los Angeles. Seven or more goals came in three of Utah's eight games and three of Edmonton's seven, including Edmonton's two openers against Vancouver, 5:6 in overtime and 9:7.
| Attack & defence | UTA | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 6-2-0 | 5-1-1 |
| Points % | 75.0% | 78.6% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.25 | +1.29 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3.88 | 4.43 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 2.62 | 3.14 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 30.5 | 24.9 |
| Shots against | 23.1 | 25.9 |
| Special teams | UTA | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 37.5% | 21.7% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 75.9% | 68.2% |
| Last season | UTA | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 43-33-6 | 41-30-11 |
| Points % | 56.1% | 56.7% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.34 | +0.16 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 27.7 | 29.7 |
| Shots against | 26.1 | 26.7 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 20.0% | 30.6% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 78.1% | 77.8% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Utah vs Edmonton: starting goalies and team news
Jarry confirmed for Edmonton, Vejmelka expected for Utah.
UtahExpected
Karel Vejmelka- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .898
- Starts
- 6
- SV% last season
- .897
- SV% 3 seasons
- .900
- NHL career starts
- 255
EdmontonConfirmed
Tristan Jarry- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .837
- Starts
- 2
- SV% last season
- .882
- SV% 3 seasons
- .887
- NHL career starts
- 312
Utah
- OutMichael CarconeUpper body, week-to-week
- OutMaveric LamoureuxShoulder, injured reserve
Edmonton
- OutRyan Nugent-HopkinsLower body, injured reserve
- OutJason DickinsonUndisclosed injury
- OutMatt SavoieLower body, long-term injured reserve
- OutMattias JanmarkInjured reserve, no timeline for a return
- OutFrederik AndersenKnee, not expected back until about December
- ProbableJake WalmanUpper body, likely to play (Jason Gregor)
- ProbableColton DachLikely to play (Jason Gregor)
TacticsJason Gregor of Sports 1440 Edmonton reported Tristan Jarry as Edmonton's starter, as listed by Daily Faceoff. Jarry has saved .837 in two starts this season and .887 over three seasons; Devon Levi played on Thursday, and Frederik Andersen (knee) is not expected back until about December. Karel Vejmelka is Utah's expected starter, unconfirmed when we checked at 06:10 UTC: .898 in six starts and .900 over three seasons. Edmonton are without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (lower body, injured reserve), Jason Dickinson, Matt Savoie and Mattias Janmark; Gregor reports that Jake Walman and Colton Dach will likely play. Utah have Michael Carcone out week-to-week (upper body) and Maveric Lamoureux on injured reserve. Injury news comes from ESPN's NHL injury report on the morning of 17 October.
In the news
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Utah vs Edmonton?
The one model we found sees a close game with plenty of goals.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| DRatings | Utah 51.0%, projected 3.43 to 3.33 |
Our positionDRatings projects 6.76 goals in total, above the 6.5 line, and calls the winner close to a coin flip. We read it the same way: the result is too close to call, so our pick is the total rather than a side. The Covers computer pick for this game was cut off on the page when we checked.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Utah vs Edmonton predicted score
Utah's power play against Edmonton's penalty kill.
4:3 to Utah, possibly after overtime, is our main score. Utah score on 37.5% of their power plays and Edmonton kill only 68.2% of penalties, so two power-play goals are realistic. Edmonton still score 4.43 a game, the most of the two teams, and Vejmelka has been steady rather than sharp at .898. 2:3 to Edmonton is the alternative, a tighter game that stays under the line. Over 6.5 comes in with seven goals or more; a shootout winner adds one goal to the final score.
- Predicted score
- 4:3
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
UTA
EDM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Utah vs Edmonton pick: Over 6.5 goals
Over 6.5 goals: why this pick wins
Why we back it
The special teams numbers point one way: Utah's power play at 37.5% against an Edmonton penalty kill at 68.2%. Jarry is confirmed in the Edmonton goal after an .837 start, and Edmonton still score 4.43 goals a game. DRatings projects 6.76 goals. We expect 4:3.
Our probability50–54%
Our pickOver 6.5 goals
Odds1.96
Main scenario4:3
- Wins with
- 4:35:25:36:33:4…
- Loses with
- 3:24:23:12:12:34:1…
- Our scenario
- 4:3alternative 2:3
What would change our mind A late change in the Edmonton goal, or a new absence among Edmonton's top forwards after the morning skate, would make us rethink the total.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Utah win · incl. OT | 1.71 | 58.5% |
| Edmonton win · incl. OT | 2.14 | 46.7% |
| Utah win in 60 min | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.25 | 23.5% |
| Edmonton win in 60 min | 2.79 | 35.8% |
| Edmonton +1.5 | 1.50 | 66.7% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 1.96 | 51% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.84 | 54.3% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 05:19 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Thursday's game in Edmonton ended 4:2, six goals.
- Each team has gone over 6.5 goals in only three of its games this season.
- Vejmelka has saved .900 over three seasons, and Utah allow only 23.1 shots a game.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Over 6.5 goals at 1.96 · analysis only. We expect 4:3, but Thursday's game produced six goals and each team has gone over 6.5 only three times, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Over 6.5 goals, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:3Over 6.5 goals at 1.96
- Happened
- 2:6Edmonton win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.