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Football · Germany · Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Frankfurt

FrankfurtvsKöln Eintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln · prediction

Score
1:0
Date
16 OCT
City
Frankfurt
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Frankfurt vs Köln?

Our Eintracht Frankfurt vs Köln prediction is over 2.5 goals, most likely a 2:2 draw at Deutsche Bank Park. Frankfurt are the home favourites at 1.87, but they have won one of their five Bundesliga games this season and lost 0:6 at RB Leipzig last Saturday. Both sides play open football: over 2.5 goals came in nine of the last ten games for each of them. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 2:1
2:2
Our estimate
68–72%
Over 2.5 goals · odds 1.40Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Over 2.5 goals
Price now
1.40

Frankfurt vs Köln at a glance

MatchEintracht Frankfurt vs 1. FC Köln
CompetitionBundesliga · Matchday 6
Kick-off16 OCT · 19:30 UK · 20:30 Frankfurt
VenueDeutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt
Our pickOver 2.5 goals · 1.40 · analysis only
Our estimate68–72%
Predicted score2:2
Main reasonWe expect at least three goals in Frankfurt.
No. 04 · Form

Frankfurt vs Köln: recent form

Frankfurt 5 from 15. Köln 7 from 15.

Frankfurt5 pts
  • Lossvs RB Leipzig0:6
  • Drawvs Freiburg2:2
  • Winvs Mainz3:1
  • Lossvs Augsburg1:4
  • Drawvs Union Berlin3:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
3.20
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
100%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Köln7 pts
  • Winvs Gladbach2:1
  • Lossvs Hamburger SV1:2
  • Drawvs Werder Bremen1:1
  • Lossvs Stuttgart1:4
  • Winvs Hoffenheim3:2
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
2.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
100%
Key factFrankfurt have five points from five league games: a 0:6 defeat at RB Leipzig, a 2:2 draw with Freiburg, a 3:1 win at Mainz, a 1:4 home defeat by Augsburg and a 3:3 draw at Union Berlin. That is 9 goals scored and 16 conceded. Köln have seven points: 2:1 against Gladbach last Sunday, 1:2 at Hamburger SV, 1:1 with Werder Bremen, 1:4 at Stuttgart and 3:2 against Hoffenheim, with 8 goals for and 10 against. Understat gives Frankfurt 2.17 expected goals a game and 2.73 against, the weakest defensive figure of the two; Köln sit at 2.10 and 1.95. Over each side's last ten games, both teams scored in eight of Frankfurt's and in all ten of Köln's.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Frankfurt vs Köln team news

No confirmed team news for either side.

Frankfurt

No absences reported.

Köln

No absences reported.

TacticsWe found no fresh team news for this game in open sources on Friday morning, and the only preview with absences we could find dates from April, so we do not use it. Neither side has a rotation reason: Frankfurt have had six days of rest since Leipzig and Köln five since their win over Gladbach, and both play next on 24 October, Frankfurt at Borussia Dortmund and Köln at home to Schalke 04. No line-up had been confirmed when we published.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Frankfurt vs Köln?

The previews we read expect goals, with Frankfurt slight favourites.

SourcePick
KickOffOver 2.5 goals, Frankfurt favourites
Our positionKickOff backs over 2.5 goals with Frankfurt as favourites, footballpredictions.ai lists both teams to score and over 2.5 as its tips, and the SportsEdge model gives both teams to score 73.4%. We agree on the goals but do not pick a winner: one win in five and 2.73 expected goals conceded a game do not make Frankfurt a favourite we trust.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Frankfurt vs Köln predicted score

Two attacks that create, two defences that leak.

Both teams average more than two expected goals a game in the league, and the average prices put about 3.1 goals in this match. Frankfurt allowed 7.8 shots on target a game over their last five, so Köln, who scored in all of their last ten, should find chances. Frankfurt at home should answer. 2:2 is our main score; 2:1 to Frankfurt is the alternative if the home side tighten up after Leipzig. Over 2.5 goals wins with 2:1, 2:2, 3:1 or any score with three goals or more, and loses with 1:1, 1:0, 2:0 or 0:0.

Predicted score
2:2
Alternative
2:1
Your score
SGE2
KOE2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Frankfurt vs Köln pick: Over 2.5 goals

Over 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We expect at least three goals in Frankfurt. Over 2.5 came in nine of the last ten games for both teams, Frankfurt concede 2.73 expected goals a game and Köln scored in each of their last ten. Our main score is 2:2 and the alternative 2:1, so both scenarios clear the line. We do not bet because the goal markets are priced at 1.36 to 1.40 here: the prices already show what we see, and a Frankfurt win after one victory in five is not a result we are sure of.

Our probability68–72%
Our pickOver 2.5 goals
Odds1.40
Main scenario2:2
Wins with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Loses with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Our scenario
2:2alternative 2:1

What would change our mind A confirmed Frankfurt line-up with an extra defensive midfielder after the Leipzig defeat, or news of Köln missing their main forwards: then 1:1 becomes our main score.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Frankfurt win1.8753.5%
Draw4.0924.4%
Köln win3.4928.7%
Over 2.5 goals1.4071.4%
Both teams to score1.3673.5%

Odds snapshot 16 OCT 06:22 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could stay under three goals.

  1. After a 0:6 defeat, Frankfurt may play a far more careful game at home, and a 1:1 or 2:0 already loses the pick.
  2. Köln score less than their chances suggest: over ten games their goals fell 6.3 short of what their shots on target would usually bring.
  3. Four of the ten games behind the nine-in-ten over record are from last season, and only five league rounds of this one have been played.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: over 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 2:2, but the goal markets are already short and the winner is open, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Over 2.5 goals
Odds
1.40
Published
16 OCT 07:45
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
2:2Over 2.5 goals at 1.40
Happened
1:0Frankfurt win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.