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Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Madrid
AtléticovsMan United Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United · prediction
Score
2:0
Date
13 OCT
City
Madrid
Status
Full time
ATM2:0MUNFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Atlético vs Man United?
Our Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United prediction is both teams to score, most likely 2:1 to Atlético. Diego Simeone's side are second in LaLiga with four league wins in a row; Michael Carrick's United have six points from six Premier League games, their worst start since 1986 (Opta Analyst), but have failed to score only twice in their last ten games. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 60–65%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.44
Atlético vs Man United at a glance
| Match | Atlético Madrid vs Manchester United |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 13 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Madrid |
| Venue | Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.44 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 60–65% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We think Atlético win but United score. |
No. 04 · Form
Atlético vs Man United: recent form
Atlético 12 from 15. Man United 5 from 15.
Atlético12 pts
- Winvs Deportivo Alavés2:1
- Winvs Real Madrid2:1
- Winvs Osasuna4:0
- Winvs Real Sociedad3:0
- Lossvs Liverpool1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Man United5 pts
- Drawvs Tottenham Hotspur1:1
- Drawvs Fulham1:1
- Lossvs Brighton & Hove Albion2:3
- Lossvs Manchester City0:1
- Winvs Sabah4:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Key factAtlético won 2:1 at Alavés on Saturday after 2:1 against Real Madrid, 4:0 against Osasuna and 3:0 at Real Sociedad; their only defeat in five was 1:2 at Liverpool on matchday 1. United drew 1:1 with Tottenham and at Fulham, lost to Manchester City and to Brighton in the cup, and beat Sabah 4:0 in the Champions League. Both teams scored in six of the last ten games of each side, and Atlético have conceded in 14 of their 15 home European games since the start of 2024 (Opta Analyst).
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Atlético vs Man United team news
Atlético almost at full strength; United without Šeško and four defenders and midfielders.
Atlético
No absences reported.
Man United
- OutBenjamin ŠeškoInjured, further tests
- OutPatrick DorguInjured
- OutNoussair MazraouiInjured
- OutManuel UgarteInjured
- OutKobbie MainooDid not travel to Madrid
- OutLuke ShawDid not travel to Madrid
- DoubtMatthijs de LigtSources differ: out or in the squad
TacticsAtlético have no new absentees: Grimaldo and Sørloth are over their knocks and Pablo Barrios is fit again, though 17 internationals had only two sessions before the game (SI). United are without Benjamin Šeško, Patrick Dorgu, Noussair Mazraoui and Manuel Ugarte; according to extra.ec, Carrick said Kobbie Mainoo and Luke Shaw were not ready and did not travel. Reports differ on Matthijs de Ligt. Without Šeško, former Atlético forward Matheus Cunha is expected to lead the line (Opta Analyst).
In the news
Report: Julián Álvarez cuts the agent behind his Barça summer, and Atlético should worry
Our take A new agent means a new exit plan
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 5 of 5
Who do others back in Atlético vs Man United?
Most previews expect an Atlético win with a United goal.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Atlético 46%, draw 24.3%, United 29.7% |
| Kickoff.co.uk | Atlético 50%, both teams to score 64% |
| CBS Sports | Five experts: 2:1, 2:1, 2:1, 3:2 to Atlético and 2:2 |
| Covers | Atlético 3:1 |
| SI (Spanish) | Atlético 2:0 |
Our positionWe agree Atlético are the better side, but the line gives them only 50% and Opta 46%. United score in most of their games, so we pick goals at both ends rather than the winner.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Atlético vs Man United predicted score
Atlético push at home, United answer through Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo.
Atlético average 17.8 shots a game over their last five and should press from the start, with Julián Álvarez and Jonathan David in attack; United's routes to a goal are transitions through Bruno Fernandes and Mbeumo and set pieces. 2:1 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative if United sit deep without Mainoo and Shaw and Atlético, after two training sessions, cannot finish them off. Both teams to score wins with 2:1, 1:1, 2:2, 3:1 or 3:2 and loses with 2:0, 1:0, 3:0 or 0:1.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
ATM
MUN
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Atlético vs Man United pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Atlético win but United score. Simeone has almost his whole squad and four league wins in a row, while Carrick has no first-choice full-back fit. United have failed to score only twice in ten games, and Atlético concede at home in Europe almost every time. Our score is 2:1, and both teams to score holds with 2:1 and with 1:1.
Our probability60–65%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.44
Main scenario2:1
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 1:1
What would change our mind An official United line-up without Cunha and Bruno Fernandes, or with five defenders: then 2:0 becomes our main score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Atlético win | 1.88 | 53.2% |
| Draw | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Man United win | 3.69 | 27.1% |
| Man United or draw | 1.83 | 54.6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.44 | 69.4% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.63 | 38% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.53 | 65.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.50 | 40% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 07:15 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why United might not score.
- Atlético know how to keep a clean sheet: 31 in 49 Champions League home games under Simeone (Opta Analyst), and three in their last ten games.
- Without Šeško, United have no natural centre-forward; their expected goals against Tottenham were 0.77.
- Atlético's league points are 4.1 above their expected points: the table flatters them.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 2:1, but Atlético are only slight favourites and keep clean sheets at home, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Both teams to score at 1.44
- Happened
- 2:0Atlético win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.