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Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Villarreal
VillarrealvsNapoli prediction
Score
3:1
Date
13 OCT
City
Villarreal
Status
Full time
VIL3:1NAPFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Villarreal vs Napoli?
Our Villarreal vs Napoli prediction is Napoli or a draw, most likely 1:1. Íñigo Pérez's Villarreal have lost seven Champions League games in a row, and an eighth would make them the first Spanish club to lose eight straight in the competition (Opta Analyst); Massimiliano Allegri's Napoli lost 0:1 to Arsenal on matchday 1 but keep clean sheets in half their games. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:1
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 55–58%
- Market
- Napoli or draw
- Price now
- 1.70
Villarreal vs Napoli at a glance
| Match | Villarreal vs Napoli |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 13 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Villarreal |
| Venue | Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal |
| Our pick | Napoli or draw · 1.70 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 55–58% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | We do not see a winner here. |
No. 04 · Form
Villarreal vs Napoli: recent form
Villarreal 6 from 15. Napoli 7 from 15.
Villarreal6 pts
- Lossvs Real Madrid0:1
- Winvs Levante3:1
- Winvs Málaga3:1
- Lossvs Real Betis1:2
- Lossvs Borussia Dortmund2:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Napoli7 pts
- Winvs Frosinone3:0
- Drawvs Fiorentina1:1
- Winvs Bologna1:0
- Lossvs Arsenal0:1
- Lossvs Inter Milan2:3
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factVillarreal lost 0:1 at Real Madrid on Saturday and 2:3 at Borussia Dortmund on matchday 1, with home wins against Levante and Málaga in between; they have 8 points from 8 LaLiga rounds despite 2.52 expected goals a game, 5.9 points below their expected points. Napoli beat Frosinone 3:0 and have 10 points from six Serie A rounds. Villarreal have not kept a clean sheet in their last ten games; Napoli have kept five.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Villarreal vs Napoli team news
Villarreal without Buchanan; Napoli without Buongiorno and three more.
Villarreal
- OutTajon BuchananHamstring injury
- DoubtNicolas PépéEye problem, sources differ
Napoli
- OutAlessandro BuongiornoKnee surgery
- OutAntonio VergaraCalf injury
- OutAlisson SantosHamstring injury
- OutCostantino FavasuliHamstring injury
- DoubtMathias OliveraReported out, not confirmed
- DoubtFrank AnguissaThigh injury
- DoubtScott McTominayBack after a heart procedure, not confirmed
TacticsTajon Buchanan (hamstring) is out for Villarreal, and reports differ on Nicolas Pépé: Infobae has him out, Sports Mole lists an eye problem and a doubt. Napoli are without Alessandro Buongiorno after knee surgery, Antonio Vergara (calf), Alisson Santos and Costantino Favasuli (hamstrings); Sports Mole also has Mathias Olivera out and Frank Anguissa a doubt. Scott McTominay is back after a procedure for a benign heart rhythm problem, says Sports Mole, while Infobae calls his involvement undecided. Expected line-ups have Gulácsi in goal and Moleiro, Ayoze Pérez and Mikautadze up front for Villarreal; Meret, Lobotka, De Bruyne and Højlund for Napoli.
In the news
Aguirre says Valencia have no strikers: 2 goals, 2 points from 5 Mestalla games
Our take The numbers back Aguirre: Valencia lack finishers
Allegri's Napoli have 10 points from 7: the start that got Donadoni sacked
Our take We said three minutes. Venezia make it a pattern
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 4
Who do others back in Villarreal vs Napoli?
The models favour Villarreal; the human previews do not.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | Villarreal 44.3%, Napoli 31.2% | Other side |
| Kickoff.co.uk | Villarreal 47%, most likely score 1:1 | Other side |
| Sports Mole | 1:1 | Same side |
| CBS Sports | Five experts: 0:0, 0:0, 1:1, 0:1, 0:1 | Same side |
Our positionNone of the six human picks we read has a Villarreal win, and no model gives Villarreal more than 47%. We side with the previews: Napoli or a draw.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Villarreal vs Napoli predicted score
Villarreal create, Napoli control the middle.
Villarreal take 15.4 shots a game over their last ten and will have the ball, but Lobotka and De Bruyne should keep Napoli compact in midfield, and Villarreal concede in every game. 1:1 is our main score; 2:1 to Villarreal is the risk if Moleiro and Mikautadze finally turn their chances into goals. Napoli or draw wins with 1:1, 0:0, 0:1, 1:2 or 2:2 and loses with 2:1, 1:0 or 2:0.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 2:1
Your score
VIL
NAP
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Villarreal vs Napoli pick: Napoli or draw
Napoli or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We do not see a winner here. Villarreal create plenty but have lost seven Champions League games in a row and have not kept a clean sheet in ten, so a Napoli goal is likely. Allegri's Napoli are careful, with five clean sheets in ten, and away in Europe should not open up. Our score is 1:1, and Napoli or draw holds with 1:1 and with 0:1.
Our probability55–58%
Our pickNapoli or draw
Odds1.70
Main scenario1:1
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 2:1
What would change our mind An official Napoli line-up without McTominay, Anguissa and Lobotka in midfield: then 2:1 to Villarreal becomes our main score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Villarreal win | 2.12 | 47.2% |
| Draw | 3.62 | 27.6% |
| Napoli win | 3.19 | 31.3% |
| Napoli or draw | 1.70 | 58.8% |
| Villarreal or draw | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| Both teams to score | 1.53 | 65.4% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.38 | 42% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.62 | 61.7% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.30 | 43.5% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 07:15 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Villarreal could win it.
- The prices (44%) and both models (Opta 44.3%, Kickoff.co.uk 47%) make Villarreal favourites.
- Villarreal play better than their results: 2.52 expected goals a game and 5.9 points below their expected points.
- Napoli's defence is short of Buongiorno and probably Olivera, and McTominay and Anguissa are not certain to play.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Napoli or draw · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but the prices and the models favour Villarreal, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Napoli or draw at 1.70
- Happened
- 3:1Villarreal win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.