Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Besiktas Istanbul basketball prediction

No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş?

Our Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş prediction for the Istanbul derby in round 7 of the EuroLeague: a close game that Efes edge 84:80, so Beşiktaş cover +4.5 points, overtime included. Efes are 2-4 and lost their last home game to Bayern; Beşiktaş, new to the EuroLeague, are 3-3 and beat Bayern 95:87 in the same arena six days ago. The line makes Efes favourites by about four points and our rating agrees almost to the point. Our pick: Beşiktaş +4.5 · analysis only.

Predicted score · alt 83:86: 84:80
Our estimate: 50–54%

Beşiktaş +4.5 · odds 1.91Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: Beşiktaş +4.5
Price now: 1.91

Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş at a glance

Match	Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Besiktas Istanbul
Competition	EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7
Kick-off	22 OCT · 18:30 UK
Venue	Turkcell Basketball Development Center, Istanbul
Our pick	Beşiktaş +4.5 · 1.91 · analysis only
Our estimate	50–54%
Predicted score	84:80
Main reason	We think this is the most even game of the round on paper.

No. 04 · Form

Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş: recent form

Anadolu Efes 2-3 in their last 5. Beşiktaş 3-2.

Anadolu Efes: Won 85:70 at Zalgiris on Fri 16 Oct · six days since the last EuroLeague game
Beşiktaş: Beat Bayern 95:87 on Fri 16 Oct · six days since the last EuroLeague game · no travel: Beşiktaş play their EuroLeague home games in the same arena

Anadolu Efes2-3

Winvs Zalgiris85:70
Lossvs Bayern93:101
Lossvs Olympiacos66:89
Lossvs Crvena Zvezda72:77
Winvs Real Madrid94:84

: 82.0
: 84.2
: 166.2
: −2.2

Beşiktaş3-2

Winvs Bayern95:87
Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv82:100
Winvs Baskonia92:84
Lossvs Barcelona82:95
Winvs Maccabi Tel Aviv109:93

: 92.0
: 91.8
: 183.8
: +0.2

Key factEfes have won two of six: 94:84 at home to Real Madrid and 85:70 at Zalgiris last Friday, with defeats at Barcelona, Crvena Zvezda and Olympiacos (66:89) and 93:101 at home to Bayern. Beşiktaş are 3-3 in their first EuroLeague season: they won 109:93 at Maccabi in Belgrade and 92:84 at Baskonia, beat Bayern at home and lost 94:96 to Valencia, 82:95 to Barcelona and 82:100 to Hapoel. Six games are only a start; last season Efes went 12-26.

EuroLeague so far	EFS	BJK
	2-4	3-3
Points for per game	82.0	92.3
Points against per game	85.0	92.5
Point difference per game	-3.0	-0.2

Last season	EFS	BJK
	12-26	–
Point difference per game	-4.2	–

EuroLeague 2026-27, 6 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş injury report

Efes without Mike James; Beşiktaş without Jeffries.

Anadolu Efes

OutMike JamesAchilles injury in round 3, out 7 to 9 months
OutIsaia CordinierSurgery in May, has not played this season
OutGeorgios PapagiannisACL rehab since October 2025, not in the rotation

Beşiktaş

OutDaQuan JeffriesWrist surgery after round 1; a further 15 to 20 days out

TacticsEfes have been without Mike James since his Achilles injury in round 3; the club's round 6 report put him out for 7 to 9 months, with Isaia Cordinier (surgery in May) and Georgios Papagiannis (ACL) also out (EuroLeague injury report, 16 Oct). The line has known that for three weeks. Dario Saric (16.5 PIR a game), Matthew Strazel, Jordan Loyd and Bruno Fernando carry the team. For Beşiktaş, DaQuan Jeffries faces another 15 to 20 days after wrist surgery and Sissoko is back in training (Eurohoops, 20 Oct); neither is in their top nine by minutes. Scottie Wilbekin and Devon Dotson run the game, Ante Zizic leads the team in PIR. No official report for round 7 had been published when we checked.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş?

The one preview we found expects a one-point game.

Source	Pick	Versus us
Sportsgambler	Anadolu Efes 89:88; Beşiktaş +4.5 in their bet builder	Same side

Our positionWe agree that this is a close game. The line, with the margin removed, gives Efes 62.7%, which is about a four-point favourite, and our rating says Efes by 4.1. Both point to Beşiktaş +4.5 as a coin flip leaning our way, and we found only one outside preview.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş predicted score

Two even sides in a shared arena.

84:80 to Efes is our main score: Saric and Fernando give Efes the edge inside, but Wilbekin and Dotson keep Beşiktaş in touch all night, as they did against Bayern. 83:86 to Beşiktaş is the alternative: the visitors score as they did in their wins in Belgrade and Vitoria and take a third away scalp. The pick wins with any Beşiktaş win or an Efes win by four or fewer, overtime included. Our counter-scenario is 92:78 to Efes, a night when their size wins the boards and the gap opens in the third quarter.

Predicted score: 84:80
Alternative: 83:86

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Anadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş pick: Beşiktaş +4.5

Beşiktaş +4.5: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think this is the most even game of the round on paper. Efes are 2-4 without Mike James and lost at home to Bayern, the team Beşiktaş beat by eight in the same arena six days later. Beşiktaş have scored 92.3 points a game and won away at Maccabi and Baskonia. Home court means less here: both clubs play their EuroLeague home games in the Turkcell Basketball Development Center. We expect Efes by about four, which keeps Beşiktaş +4.5 alive, but the margin is too close to call for a bet on that line.

Our probability50–54%

Our pickBeşiktaş +4.5

Odds1.91

Main scenario84:80

Wins with: 84:8078:7874:8080:90…
Loses with: 90:8092:8490:7678:7288:70…

Our scenario: 84:80alternative 83:86

What would change our mind Wilbekin or Dotson missing from the Beşiktaş roster, or the line moving three points or more towards Efes before tip-off.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
Anadolu Efes win	1.52	65.8%
Beşiktaş win	2.55	39.2%
Anadolu Efes −4.5	1.91	52.4%
Beşiktaş +4.5	1.91	52.4%
Beşiktaş +12.5	1.25	80%
Over 172.5 points	1.92	52.1%
Under 172.5 points	1.86	53.8%

Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

Beşiktaş have no EuroLeague record before this season, so our rating for them rests mostly on a newcomer estimate.
Efes can win big: they beat Zalgiris by 15 away last Friday and Real Madrid by 10 at home.
Beşiktaş have already lost by 13 to Barcelona and by 18 to Hapoel: a bad night beats the pick.
We found one outside preview and no official injury report for this round.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Beşiktaş +4.5 at 1.91 · analysis only. We expect 84:80; a four-point game is too close for a stake on this line.

Market: Beşiktaş +4.5
Odds: 1.91
Published: 22 OCT 06:25

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

06:25Analysis published · our pick Beşiktaş +4.5, no bet

No. 12 · After the match

After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

Anadolu EfesvsBeşiktaş Anadolu Efes Istanbul vs Besiktas Istanbul · basketball prediction