Salomón Rondón is two goals from Maldonado's Venezuelan record in Liga MX
Our take Rondón takes Maldonado's record this Apertura
Football · Mexico · Liga MX · Matchday 12 · Guadalupe
MonterreyvsPachuca prediction
Score
2:1
Date
18 OCT
City
Guadalupe
Status
Full time
MTY2:1PACFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Monterrey vs Pachuca?
Our Monterrey vs Pachuca prediction is Pachuca or the draw, most likely 1:1 at the Estadio BBVA on Sunday at 19:00 in Monterrey (02:00 UK on Monday). Monterrey are the bookmakers' favourites, but they have won one of their last five games, while Pachuca are 2-2-1 in that run with 10 goals scored and won four of the last five meetings, including 3:1 in Monterrey in April. Both sides are outside the Liguilla places after eleven rounds. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:2
- 1:1
- Our estimate
- 44–49%
- Market
- Pachuca or draw
- Price now
- 2.11
Monterrey vs Pachuca at a glance
| Match | Monterrey vs Pachuca |
|---|---|
| Competition | Liga MX Apertura 2026 · Matchday 12 |
| Kick-off | 19 OCT · 02:00 UK · 19:00 Guadalupe |
| Venue | Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe |
| Our pick | Pachuca or draw · 2.11 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 44–49% |
| Predicted score | 1:1 |
| Main reason | We think Monterrey do not win this one. |
No. 04 · Form
Monterrey vs Pachuca: recent form
Monterrey 5 from 15. Pachuca 8 from 15.
Monterrey5 pts
- Drawvs América1:1
- Lossvs Atlas2:4
- Winvs Cancún1:0
- Drawvs Tigres UANL0:0
- Lossvs Toluca0:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 20%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Pachuca8 pts
- Drawvs Necaxa3:3
- Lossvs Santos Laguna0:1
- Drawvs Tijuana2:2
- Winvs Atlas3:0
- Winvs FC Juárez2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factMonterrey's last five: 1:1 at América, 2:4 at Atlas, 1:0 against Cancún, 0:0 with Tigres and 0:2 at Toluca. Over ten games they are 3-3-4 with 15 goals scored and 16 conceded, and they failed to score in three. Pachuca drew 3:3 with Necaxa, lost 0:1 at Santos Laguna, drew 2:2 with Tijuana and won 3:0 at Atlas and 2:0 at Juárez. Over ten games they are 3-4-3 with 16 goals scored and 13 conceded, and they failed to score only once. Both teams scored in six of the last ten games of each side.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Monterrey vs Pachuca team news
Orellano should play for Monterrey; Pachuca's absences come from one source.
Monterrey
- DoubtLuca OrellanoMuscle problem, trained with the group on Thursday
- OutStefan MedinaOne source
- OutUros DjurdjevicOne source
Pachuca
- OutRobert KenedyThigh injury, one source
- OutAlexei DomínguezFoot injury, one source
- OutFrancisco VenegasSuspended (yellow cards), one source
TacticsSI reports that Luca Orellano trained with the group on Thursday after a muscle problem and is likely to play for Monterrey. Other previews list Stefan Medina and Uros Djurdjevic out for Monterrey, and Robert Kenedy (thigh), Alexei Domínguez (foot) and the suspended Francisco Venegas out for Pachuca, but no second source confirms them, so they are not arguments for either side. Both teams have had eight days of rest since the last round, and both play again on Wednesday, Monterrey at Puebla and Pachuca at home to Cruz Azul. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Monterrey vs Pachuca?
The one preview we read with a score expects a draw.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| SI | 1:1 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree with SI on the 1:1. We do not back Monterrey after one win in five, and Pachuca's attack gives them a real chance of a point or more.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Monterrey vs Pachuca predicted score
Monterrey have the ball; Pachuca score on the break.
Monterrey at home will have more of the ball, but they have conceded eight goals in their last five and have not looked like a side that controls games. Pachuca score almost every week and won 3:1 in this fixture in April. 1:1 is our main score and 1:2 to Pachuca the alternative. Pachuca or the draw wins with 0:0, 1:1, 2:2, 0:1 or 1:2 and loses with any Monterrey win.
- Predicted score
- 1:1
- Alternative
- 1:2
Your score
MTY
PAC
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Monterrey vs Pachuca pick: Pachuca or draw
Pachuca or draw: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Monterrey do not win this one. They have won once in five and conceded eight goals in that run, while Pachuca score almost every game and have won four of the last five meetings. The market still trusts Monterrey's squad, which keeps this as analysis only, but our pick is Pachuca or the draw and our score 1:1.
Our probability44–49%
Our pickPachuca or draw
Odds2.11
Main scenario1:1
- Our scenario
- 1:1alternative 1:2
What would change our mind Salomón Rondón missing from Pachuca's squad: then a Monterrey win becomes our main result.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Monterrey win | 1.63 | 61.3% |
| Draw | 3.96 | 25.3% |
| Pachuca win | 4.52 | 22.1% |
| Monterrey or draw | 1.15 | 87% |
| Pachuca or draw | 2.11 | 47.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.56 | 64.1% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.32 | 43.1% |
Odds snapshot 17 OCT 22:20 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why Monterrey could win.
- The line makes Monterrey clear favourites, about 56% once the margin is removed.
- Monterrey have Luca Orellano back in training, and Pachuca may miss three players if the reports are right.
- Pachuca lost 0:1 at Santos Laguna two games ago and drew at home with Necaxa and Tijuana.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Pachuca or the draw · analysis only. We expect 1:1, but the market makes Monterrey clear favourites, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:1Pachuca or draw at 2.11
- Happened
- 2:1Monterrey win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.