- Our pick
- Over 2.5 goals
- Our estimate
- 55–58%
- Odds
- 1.66
- Status
- Full time
- Prediction came true
Predictions
Liga MX predictions
Apertura 2026 picks with the reasoning behind each one, from the regular phase to the Liguilla.
Our Liga MX calls so far: 4 of 6 matches called right
- Our pick
- Both teams to score
- Our estimate
- 59–62%
- Odds
- 1.56
- Status
- Full time
- Prediction came true
- Our pick
- Under 3.5 goals
- Our estimate
- 54–59%
- Odds
- 1.67
- Status
- Full time
- Prediction came true
- Our pick
- Pachuca or draw
- Our estimate
- 44–49%
- Odds
- 2.11
- Status
- Full time
- Prediction missed
- Our pick
- León or draw
- Our estimate
- 60–64%
- Odds
- 1.66
- Status
- Full time
- Prediction missed
- Our pick
- Under 2.5 goals
- Our estimate
- 52–56%
- Odds
- 1.97
- Status
- Full time
- Prediction came true
About Liga MX and how we cover it
The Apertura 2026 has 18 clubs and a 17-round regular phase that started on 16 July and ends on the weekend of 20 to 22 November. Atlante are back in the top flight, taking the place of Mazatlán. There is no play-in this season: the top eight in the general table go straight into the Liguilla, which opens with two-legged quarter-finals in the last week of November.
Altitude shapes Liga MX more than almost any other league. Toluca, Pachuca and the Mexico City clubs play well above 2,000 metres, and visiting teams often run out of legs in the last half hour. Travel adds to it, because a trip from Tijuana or Monterrey to the capital is a long flight in the middle of a short week. With the play-in gone, ninth place now means the season is over, so the final rounds of the regular phase bring real pressure to the clubs around the cut.
We do not preview every game. We pick the Liga MX matches where we have a clear read on the result, write the full analysis and publish one pick with the odds at the time of publication. Every pick goes into our public tracker and is settled against the official result. The record speaks for itself, and we make no promises beyond it.
Questions
How many teams qualify for the Liga MX Liguilla?
In the Apertura 2026 the top eight clubs in the general table qualify directly for the quarter-finals. The play-in that Liga MX used from the Apertura 2023 to the Apertura 2025 has been dropped.
When does the Apertura 2026 Liguilla start?
The regular phase ends on 22 November 2026. The quarter-finals are scheduled for 25 to 29 November and the semi-finals for 2 to 6 December, both over two legs. Liga MX has two possible windows for the final in December.
How many teams play in Liga MX?
Eighteen clubs play the Apertura 2026, with nine matches per round over 17 rounds. Atlante returned to the league in place of Mazatlán.
Where can I see past results of your picks?
Every pick we publish goes into our public tracker with the odds at publication, the stake in units and the final result. Nothing is removed or edited after publication.
Sources: El Imparcial: Apertura 2026 calendar published by Liga MX (15 Jul 2026) · Excélsior: Liguilla picture after matchday 10 of the Apertura 2026 (28 Sep 2026) · Fox Sports México: Liga MX drops the play-in, Liguilla with the top eight