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Football · Argentina · Liga Profesional · Round 13 · Rosario

Newell'svsCentral Córdoba Newell's Old Boys vs Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero · prediction

Score
2:1
Date
19 OCT
City
Rosario
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Newell's vs Central Córdoba?

Our Newell's vs Central Córdoba prediction is under 2.5 goals, most likely a 1:0 to Newell's at the Estadio Marcelo Bielsa on Monday at 23:00 UK (19:00 in Rosario). Frank Kudelka's Newell's are eighth in Zone A of the Clausura with 17 points and unbeaten at home in this tournament, three wins and three draws, but they have scored only three goals in their last five games. Sebastián Domínguez's Central Córdoba are 14th with 10 points and without a win in five. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate
58–63%
Under 2.5 goals · odds 1.53Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Under 2.5 goals
Price now
1.53

Newell's vs Central Córdoba at a glance

MatchNewell's Old Boys vs Central Córdoba de Santiago del Estero
CompetitionTorneo Clausura 2026 · Round 13
Kick-off19 OCT · 23:00 UK · 19:00 Rosario
VenueEstadio Marcelo Bielsa, Rosario
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals · 1.53 · analysis only
Our estimate58–63%
Predicted score1:0
Main reasonWe think this is a tight game decided by one goal.
No. 04 · Form

Newell's vs Central Córdoba: recent form

Newell's 6 from 15. Central Córdoba 3 from 15.

Newell's6 pts
  • Lossvs Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza0:1
  • Drawvs Lanús0:0
  • Winvs Platense1:0
  • Drawvs Vélez Sarsfield1:1
  • Drawvs Rosario Central1:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
0.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
0%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Central Córdoba3 pts
  • Drawvs Estudiantes de La Plata2:2
  • Drawvs Deportivo Riestra1:1
  • Drawvs Defensa y Justicia2:2
  • Lossvs Boca Juniors1:3
  • Lossvs Independiente0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.80
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Key factNewell's last five: 0:1 at Gimnasia y Esgrima de Mendoza, 0:0 at home to Lanús, 1:0 at Platense, 1:1 with Vélez Sarsfield and 1:1 at Rosario Central in the derby. They have 11 goals in 12 games of the tournament, only three of their last ten went over 2.5 goals and they kept four clean sheets in that run. Central Córdoba drew 2:2 with Estudiantes de La Plata, 1:1 at Deportivo Riestra and 2:2 with Defensa y Justicia, lost 1:3 at Boca Juniors and 0:1 at home to Independiente. They have scored 10 and conceded 16 in 12 games. Newell's won the last meeting 3:1.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Newell's vs Central Córdoba team news

Newell's without their suspended captain Regiardo.

Newell's
  • OutLuca RegiardoSuspended, fifth yellow card
Central Córdoba

No absences reported.

TacticsLa Capital reports that captain Luca Regiardo is suspended after his fifth yellow card at Gimnasia de Mendoza, and that Kudelka was sent off at the end of that game and is banned for one match unless the club pays a fine to keep him on the bench; the club's decision was still open on Thursday. Jerónimo Gómez Mattar is the likely replacement next to Rodrigo Herrera. La Capital's probable Newell's side: Reinatti; Ortega, Cabrera, Carrizo, Escobar or Russo; Gómez Mattar, Herrera; Mazzanti, Guch, Solari; Cóccaro. Central Córdoba: Aguerre; Cáceres Ovelar, Aguilar, Maciel, Martínez; Iacobellis, Vera, González, Barrera; Michael Santos and Sequeira. No absences are reported for the visitors. Newell's have had seven days of rest, Central Córdoba nine. Hernán Mastrángelo referees, with Fernando Echenique on VAR. Line-ups were not confirmed when we published.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Newell's vs Central Córdoba predicted score

Newell's press at home; one goal may decide it.

Newell's will take the game to Central Córdoba in front of their own crowd, but without Regiardo in midfield they may lack control, and their attack has been blunt. Central Córdoba scored in four of their last five and will look for the counter. 1:0 is our main score and 1:1 the alternative. Under 2.5 goals wins with 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:0 or 0:2 and loses with 2:1, 1:2 or any score with three goals or more.

Predicted score
1:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
NOB1
CCO0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Newell's vs Central Córdoba pick: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think this is a tight game decided by one goal. Newell's have scored three times in five matches and only three of their last ten went over 2.5 goals, so we do not expect a goal fest in Rosario. They have not lost at home in the Clausura, and Central Córdoba have not won in five. We see Newell's pushing and a narrow score, 1:0, with 1:1 as the alternative; both win the pick.

Our probability58–63%
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals
Odds1.53
Main scenario1:0
Wins with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Loses with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Our scenario
1:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind An early goal for either side: then the other team has to open up and three goals become a real result.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Newell's win1.8653.8%
Draw3.1032.3%
Central Córdoba win5.0020%
Over 2.5 goals2.4041.7%
Under 2.5 goals1.5365.4%
Both teams to score2.1047.6%
Both teams not to score1.6759.9%

Odds snapshot 19 OCT 02:00 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why there could be more goals.

  1. Both teams scored in six of Central Córdoba's last ten games, and five of those ten went over 2.5 goals.
  2. Central Córdoba have scored in four of their last five, including 2:2 draws with Estudiantes and Defensa y Justicia.
  3. Without their captain and possibly without their coach on the bench, Newell's could lose shape.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: under 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:0, but we found no preview to check our read against and Central Córdoba keep scoring, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.53
Published
19 OCT 02:30
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:0Under 2.5 goals at 1.53
Happened
2:1Newell's win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.