Walker Kessler went 12 for 12 in the Lakers' first game after LeBron
Our take Doncic finally has a lob target he trusts
Basketball · USA · NBA · Regular season · Los Angeles
LakersvsGolden State Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors · basketball prediction
Score
127:105
Date · UK
22 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 21 OCT
City
Los Angeles
Status
Full time
LAL127:105GSWFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Lakers vs Golden State?
Our Lakers vs Warriors prediction for opening night: the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Golden State Warriors at Crypto.com Arena, overtime included, and our main score is 118:110. This is the first Lakers team without LeBron James, who now plays in Philadelphia, so it belongs to Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. Golden State come without Jimmy Butler, Kristaps Porzingis, Moses Moody and Brandin Podziemski, while Stephen Curry is probable. The line gives the Lakers 66.5% and ESPN's BPI 64.5%. Our pick: Lakers to win · analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 113:111
- 118:110
- Our estimate
- 63–67%
- Market
- Lakers win
- Price now
- 1.42
Lakers vs Golden State at a glance
| Match | Los Angeles Lakers vs Golden State Warriors |
|---|---|
| Competition | NBA · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 03:00 UK |
| Venue | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles |
| Our pick | Lakers win · 1.42 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 63–67% |
| Predicted score | 118:110 |
| Main reason | We think Doncic and Reaves at home beat a Golden State side that has lost Butler, Porzingis, Moody and Podziemski for this game: the Warriors' rotation is too short for a full 48 minutes. |
No. 04 · Form
Lakers vs Golden State: recent form
Lakers 2-3 in their last 5. Golden State 4-1.
- Lakers
- First game of the season · last preseason game on Sat 17 Oct, four days ago
- Golden State
- First game of the season · last preseason game on Sat 17 Oct, four days ago · short flight from San Francisco
Lakers2-3
- Lossvs Denver106:121
- Lossvs Golden State89:101
- Winvs Sacramento114:110
- Lossvs Golden State98:124
- Winvs Sacramento127:103
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 106.8
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 111.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 218.6
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −5.0
Golden State4-1
- Winvs Portland128:118
- Winvs Lakers101:89
- Winvs Sacramento111:106
- Lossvs Portland118:123
- Winvs Lakers124:98
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 116.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 106.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 223.2
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +9.6
Key factThere is no regular-season form yet: this is the first game of 2026-27 for both teams, and the results below are from preseason. Golden State beat the Lakers twice in October, 124:98 and 101:89, and finished preseason 4-2; the Lakers went 2-3. Preseason minutes say little about real rotations. Last regular season the Lakers, with LeBron, were 53-29, fourth in the West and 28-13 at home; Golden State were 37-45, -0.6 a game and tenth.
| Last season | LAL | GSW |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 53-29 | 37-45 |
| Points for per game | 116.3 | 114.6 |
| Points against per game | 114.6 | 115.2 |
| Point difference per game | +1.7 | -0.6 |
| Home record | 28-13 | 22-19 |
| Conference seed | 4 | 10 |
NBA 2025-26 regular season · ESPN standings
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Lakers vs Golden State injury report
Golden State without four rotation players; Curry probable.
Lakers
- QuestionableCollin SextonRight soleus strain
- OutCameron CarrRight oblique strain
- OutAdou ThieroLeft knee swelling
Golden State
- OutJimmy Butler IIIRecovery from right ACL surgery
- OutKristaps PorzingisNot with the team
- OutMoses MoodyRecovery from left patellar tendon surgery
- OutBrandin PodziemskiLower back soreness
- QuestionableCharles BasseyRight patellar tendinopathy
- ProbableStephen CurryRight ankle soreness
TacticsThe official NBA injury report of 12:30 AM ET on 21 October and ESPN's injury page agree. Golden State are without Jimmy Butler, still recovering from a torn ACL and expected back between January and February (Anthony Slater, ESPN), Kristaps Porzingis, who did not travel and is out indefinitely (San Francisco Chronicle), Moses Moody, recovering from knee surgery, and Brandin Podziemski with back soreness. Charles Bassey is questionable and Stephen Curry probable with ankle soreness. For the Lakers, Collin Sexton is questionable with a calf strain and Cameron Carr and Adou Thiero are out; Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves are not on the report. The Lakers added Quentin Grimes and Matisse Thybulle to defend guards like Curry (Roundtable).
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Lakers vs Golden State?
The model we found backs the Lakers, a little below the line.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| ESPN BPI | Lakers 64.5% | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner. The line has the Lakers at 66.5% with the margin removed and ESPN's BPI, which rates the new rosters, at 64.5%; our own card, built on last season's Lakers with LeBron, says 59%. We have 63 to 67%. We found no written preview with a pick for this game, and the two preseason defeats to Golden State are a warning we do not ignore.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Lakers vs Golden State predicted score
Doncic against a short Golden State rotation.
118:110 to the Lakers is our main score: Doncic and Reaves run the game against a Golden State side missing two starting big men, and the depth tells in the fourth quarter. 113:111 to the Lakers is the alternative: Curry scores freely, the new Lakers group is still learning, and the game is decided late. Golden State's way to win is a big Curry night and the shooting that beat the Lakers twice in preseason. Any Lakers win makes our pick, overtime included; a Golden State win beats it.
- Predicted score
- 118:110
- Alternative
- 113:111
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Lakers vs Golden State pick: Lakers win
Lakers win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Doncic and Reaves at home beat a Golden State side that has lost Butler, Porzingis, Moody and Podziemski for this game: the Warriors' rotation is too short for a full 48 minutes. The line and ESPN's BPI both see the Lakers at about 65%. But Curry is Curry and the Lakers are a new group, so both results are possible and we are not sure enough to bet.
Our probability63–67%
Our pickLakers win
Odds1.42
Main scenario118:110
- Our scenario
- 118:110alternative 113:111
What would change our mind Doncic on the injury report, or Curry ruled out, would change the picture.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Lakers win | 1.42 | 70.4% |
| Golden State win | 2.81 | 35.6% |
| Lakers −6.5 | 1.87 | 53.5% |
| Golden State +6.5 | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Over 233.5 points | 1.86 | 53.8% |
| Under 233.5 points | 1.90 | 52.6% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 05:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Golden State beat the Lakers twice in preseason, 124:98 and 101:89.
- The Lakers without LeBron are a new team that has not played a game that counts.
- Stephen Curry can win any single game on his own, and he is probable.
- Our last-season card gives the Lakers only 59%, seven points below the line.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Lakers win at 1.42 · analysis only. We expect 118:110; at about 65% the game is too open for a bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Lakers win, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 118:110Lakers win at 1.42
- Happened
- 127:105Lakers win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.