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Basketball · USA · NBA · Regular season · Philadelphia

PhiladelphiavsCleveland Philadelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers · basketball prediction

Tip-off · UK
00:00
Date · UK
23 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 22 OCT
City
Philadelphia
Status
Pre-match
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Philadelphia vs Cleveland?

Our 76ers vs Cavaliers prediction: the Philadelphia 76ers beat the Cleveland Cavaliers at Xfinity Mobile Arena, overtime included, and our main score is 116:111. LeBron James faces his old club with a rebuilt Philadelphia that already won 106:100 at the Knicks; Cleveland, with James Harden, Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, open their season and have Jarrett Allen questionable. ESPN's BPI gives Philadelphia 70.4%, the line only 57.3%. Our pick: 76ers to win · analysis only.

Predicted score · alt 121:108
116:111
Our estimate
55–62%
Philadelphia win · odds 1.66Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Philadelphia win
Price now
1.66

Philadelphia vs Cleveland at a glance

MatchPhiladelphia 76ers vs Cleveland Cavaliers
CompetitionNBA · Regular season
Kick-off23 OCT · 00:00 UK
VenueXfinity Mobile Arena, Philadelphia
Our pickPhiladelphia win · 1.66 · analysis only
Our estimate55–62%
Predicted score116:111
Main reasonWe think Philadelphia win at home.
No. 04 · Form

Philadelphia vs Cleveland: recent form

Philadelphia 1-0 in their last 1. Cleveland 0-0.

Philadelphia
Won 106:100 at the Knicks on Tue 20 Oct · one day of rest · second game in three days
Cleveland
First game of the season
Philadelphia1-0
  • Winvs Knicks106:100
Cleveland0-0
    Key factPhiladelphia are 1-0: they won 106:100 at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, with Tyrese Maxey on 28 points, Jaylen Brown 19, LeBron James 14 in 34 minutes and Joel Embiid 13 in 33 minutes. Cleveland have not played a game that counts yet. Last season, before the rebuild, Philadelphia were 45-37, seventh in the East with a point difference of -0.2; Cleveland were 52-30, fourth, at +4.1 a game.
    Last seasonPHICLE
    Wins and losses.45-3752-30
    Points for per game115.9119.5
    Points against per game116.1115.4
    Point difference per game-0.2+4.1
    Conference seed74

    NBA 2025-26 regular season · ESPN standings

    No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

    Philadelphia vs Cleveland injury report

    Allen questionable for Cleveland; Philadelphia's big four all available.

    Philadelphia
    • OutDominick BarlowLow back stress reaction
    • OutTacko FallLeft quadriceps strain
    • OutAriel HukportiTorn right Achilles tendon
    • QuestionableDean WadeLeft ankle sprain
    Cleveland
    • QuestionableJarrett AllenRight patellar tendinopathy
    • OutKhalifa DiopLeft knee injury management
    • OutNae'Qwan TomlinLow back stress reaction
    TacticsThe official NBA injury report of 12:30 AM ET on 22 October lists Jarrett Allen as questionable with right patellar tendinopathy, and ESPN has him day-to-day. He is Cleveland's starting centre, so his status is the main open question of the night. Khalifa Diop and Nae'Qwan Tomlin are out. For Philadelphia, Dominick Barlow, Tacko Fall and Ariel Hukporti are out and Dean Wade is questionable with a left ankle sprain; James, Embiid, Brown and Maxey are not on the report. Anfernee Simons, questionable before Tuesday's game, is no longer listed.
    No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

    Who do others back in Philadelphia vs Cleveland?

    ESPN's model is far more sure of Philadelphia than the line.

    SourcePickVersus us
    ESPN BPI76ers 70.4%Same side
    Our positionWe agree on the winner but not on the size of the edge. ESPN's BPI, which rates the new rosters, has Philadelphia at 70.4%; the line, which has seen their first game, at 57.3% with the margin removed. A gap of 13 points between a good model and the market tells us there is something we cannot see, so we stay at 55 to 62%. We found no written preview with a pick.
    No. 07 · Scenario & score

    Philadelphia vs Cleveland predicted score

    Maxey and Brown at pace, Embiid against Mobley.

    116:111 to Philadelphia is our main score: Maxey and Brown push the pace as they did in New York, and Embiid has the edge inside against Mobley if Allen does not play. 121:108 to Philadelphia is the alternative: the BPI is right and the new group runs away in the second half. Cleveland's way to win is fresh legs: Harden and Mitchell against a Philadelphia side on its second game in three days. Any 76ers win makes our pick, overtime included.

    Predicted score
    116:111
    Alternative
    121:108
    No. 08 · Why this pick wins

    Our Philadelphia vs Cleveland pick: Philadelphia win

    Philadelphia win: why this pick wins

    Why we back it

    We think Philadelphia win at home. They have James, Embiid, Brown, Maxey and Simons, and they have already won at Madison Square Garden. If Allen misses out, Cleveland lose their starting centre against Embiid. But ESPN's model and the market disagree by 13 points, and until we know why, we are not sure enough to bet.

    Our probability55–62%
    Our pickPhiladelphia win
    Odds1.66
    Main scenario116:111
    Our scenario
    116:111alternative 121:108

    What would change our mind Embiid or James rested would turn our pick to Cleveland; Allen ruled out would make Philadelphia a stronger pick.

    Odds and break-even, for reference
    MarketOddsBreak-even
    Philadelphia win1.6660.2%
    Cleveland win2.2344.8%
    Philadelphia −2.51.8753.5%
    Cleveland +2.51.8952.9%
    Over 235.5 points1.8952.9%
    Under 235.5 points1.8853.2%

    Odds snapshot 22 OCT 05:25 · no bookmaker names

    No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

    What could beat our pick?

    Why this could go wrong.

    1. The line, after seeing Philadelphia's first game, still gives them only 57%.
    2. This is Philadelphia's second game in three days, with a 41-year-old James and Embiid, who has a long injury history.
    3. Cleveland were the better team last season, 52-30 and +4.1 a game against 45-37 and -0.2.
    4. Cleveland are fresh, playing their first game of the season.
    No. 10 · Editor’s call

    Analysis

    Our pick: Philadelphia win at 1.66 · analysis only. We expect 116:111; with the model and the line 13 points apart, this is not a bet.

    Market
    Philadelphia win
    Odds
    1.66
    Published
    22 OCT 06:40
    Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
    No. 11 · Update log
    1. Analysis published · our pick Philadelphia win, no bet
    No. 12 · After the match

    After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.

    Read next

    FAQ

    What does Analysis mean?

    Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

    How do you choose a pick?

    We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

    Can a prediction change after publishing?

    No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.