Zaragoza tell the NBA Aday Mara needs their papers. OKC say he doesn't
Our take Zaragoza lose the debut fight, not the money
Basketball · USA · NBA · Regular season · San Antonio
San AntoniovsOklahoma City San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder · basketball prediction
Score
104:116
Date · UK
21 OCT
Local time
20:30 · 20 OCT
City
San Antonio
Status
Full time
SAS104:116OKCFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win San Antonio vs Oklahoma City?
Our Spurs vs Thunder prediction for the late NBA opener: San Antonio win at home, 117:113. It is a rematch of last season's Western Conference finals, which the Spurs won in game 7 in Oklahoma City to stop the Thunder going for a second straight title. Victor Wembanyama against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the two-time reigning MVP. All four previews we found back San Antonio, but none above 58%, so this is an analysis, not a bet.
- Predicted score · alt 110:115
- 117:113
- Our estimate
- 50–55%
- Market
- San Antonio win
- Price now
- 1.77
San Antonio vs Oklahoma City at a glance
| Match | San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder |
|---|---|
| Competition | NBA · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 21 OCT · 02:30 UK |
| Venue | Frost Bank Center, San Antonio |
| Our pick | San Antonio win · 1.77 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 50–55% |
| Predicted score | 117:113 |
No. 04 · Form
San Antonio vs Oklahoma City: recent form
San Antonio 2-3 in their last 5. Oklahoma City 1-4.
- San Antonio
- First game of the season · last preseason game on Fri 16 Oct, four days ago
- Oklahoma City
- First game of the season · last preseason game on Thu 15 Oct in Houston, five days ago
San Antonio2-3
- Winvs Sacramento126:97
- Winvs Phoenix123:103
- Lossvs Utah109:119
- Lossvs Phoenix98:102
- Lossvs Atlanta116:123
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 114.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 108.8
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 223.2
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +5.6
Oklahoma City1-4
- Lossvs Houston89:116
- Winvs Indiana114:112
- Lossvs Atlanta110:113
- Lossvs Milwaukee126:128
- Lossvs New Orleans110:116
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 109.8
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 117.0
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 226.8
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −7.2
Key factBoth teams play their first game that counts. In preseason San Antonio went 2-3 but finished with two big home wins, 123:103 over Phoenix and 126:97 over Sacramento; Oklahoma City went 1-4 and lost their last game 89:116 in Houston. Last regular season the Thunder had the best record in the league, 64-18 with a +11.1 point difference per game; the Spurs were 62-20 and +8.3, then beat them in the conference finals and lost the Finals 4-1 to the Knicks.
| Last season | SAS | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 62-20 | 64-18 |
| Points for per game | 119.8 | 119.0 |
| Points against per game | 111.5 | 107.9 |
| Point difference per game | +8.3 | +11.1 |
| Conference seed | 2 | 1 |
NBA 2025-26 regular season · ESPN standings
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
San Antonio vs Oklahoma City injury report
Spurs without Tobias Harris; Thunder without three young reserves.
San Antonio
- OutTobias HarrisLeft calf strain
- OutJayden QuaintanceRight knee surgery
Oklahoma City
- OutOtega OwehRight Achilles tendon surgery
- OutThomas SorberRight knee surgery
- OutNikola TopicLower back surgery
TacticsThe official NBA injury report of 12:30 AM ET on 20 Oct lists Tobias Harris (left calf) and Jayden Quaintance (knee surgery) out for San Antonio; Wembanyama, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper are not on the report. For Oklahoma City, Otega Oweh (Achilles surgery), Thomas Sorber (knee surgery) and Nikola Topic (back surgery) are out, and Gilgeous-Alexander is available. The summer changed both benches: the Thunder parted with Lu Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, and the Spurs signed Harris for depth, who now misses the opener. The official starting lineups come shortly before tip-off.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 4 of 4
Who do others back in San Antonio vs Oklahoma City?
Every preview backs San Antonio, none with conviction.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Spurs win, 57.9% | Same side |
| ESPN BPI | Spurs 52.6% | Same side |
| Covers | Spurs −1.5 (preview of 11 Aug) | Same side |
| TheLines | Spurs win (30 Sep) | Same side |
Our positionWe also expect San Antonio to win. The line gives the Spurs about 53%, our rating card has the teams level, and the models range from 53 to 58%. That is a real 50-50 game with a slight home tilt, so we name the winner and do not stake on it.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
San Antonio vs Oklahoma City predicted score
Wembanyama in the paint, the Spurs win the fourth quarter.
117:113 to San Antonio is our main score: Wembanyama closes the paint, a Thunder side without Dort and Joe has fewer perimeter defenders and shooters, and Gilgeous-Alexander scores his 30 but the Spurs decide it late. 110:115 to Oklahoma City is the alternative: Gilgeous-Alexander and the three-point line carry the Thunder, and San Antonio, without Harris, run short on the bench. The pick wins with any Spurs win, overtime included, and loses with a Thunder win.
- Predicted score
- 117:113
- Alternative
- 110:115
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our San Antonio vs Oklahoma City pick: San Antonio win
San Antonio win: why this pick wins
Our probability50–55%
Our pickSan Antonio win
Odds1.77
Main scenario117:113
- Our scenario
- 117:113alternative 110:115
What would change our mind Wembanyama or Castle appearing on the injury report before tip-off, or the line moving to make Oklahoma City favourites.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| San Antonio win | 1.77 | 56.5% |
| Oklahoma City win | 2.01 | 49.8% |
| San Antonio −2.5 | 2.00 | 50% |
| Oklahoma City +2.5 | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Over 231.5 points | 1.88 | 53.2% |
| Under 231.5 points | 1.87 | 53.5% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
The case for Oklahoma City.
- The Thunder have the two-time reigning MVP, and they had the best point difference in the league last season, +11.1 a game against San Antonio's +8.3.
- The line gives the Spurs only 53%, and our own rating card has the two teams level.
- San Antonio miss Tobias Harris, signed in the summer precisely for depth.
- The Spurs lost the Finals 4-1 to the Knicks; how a team starts after that is impossible to measure.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: San Antonio win at 1.77 · analysis only, no bet: we expect San Antonio to win at home, but this is close to a 50-50 game.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 117:113San Antonio win at 1.77
- Happened
- 104:116Oklahoma City win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.