Hintz bloodied MacKinnon in his first NHL fight. Tonight they meet again in Denver
Our take Dallas need goals tonight, not revenge
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Calgary
CalgaryvsColorado Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche · hockey prediction
Score
3:7
Date · UK
9 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 8 OCT
City
Calgary
Status
Full time
CGY3:7COLFull time
No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double
Who will win Calgary vs Colorado?
Calgary have scored three goals in three games and are 0-3. Colorado are on a back-to-back after losing 3-2 in Winnipeg last night and will probably start their backup goalie, but we still back the Avalanche to win, overtime and shootout included.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 2:4
- Our estimate
- 68–73%
- Market
- Colorado win · incl. OT
- Our bet
- Double No. 54 · total odds 1.62
- Leg odds
- 1.33
Calgary vs Colorado at a glance
| Match | Calgary Flames vs Colorado Avalanche |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 9 OCT · 02:00 UK |
| Venue | Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary |
| Our pick | Colorado win · incl. OT · 1.33 · Double No. 54 · total odds 1.62 |
| Our estimate | 68–73% |
| Predicted score | 2:4 |
| Main reason | We think class decides this more than fatigue. |
No. 04 · Form
Calgary vs Colorado: recent form
Calgary 0-3 in their last 3. Colorado 2-1.
- Calgary
- Last played in Seattle on Sun 4 Oct · first game in four days · at home
- Colorado
- Back-to-back · 2nd game in 2 nights · lost in Winnipeg on Wed 7 Oct, then travelled
Calgary0-3
- Lossvs Seattle1:6
- Lossvs Vancouver1:4
- Lossvs Seattle1:6
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 1.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 5.33
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 66.7%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Colorado2-1
- Lossvs Winnipeg2:3
- Winvs St. Louis6:1
- Winvs Los Angeles8:4
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 5.33
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.67
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 66.7%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factColorado average 5.33 goals a game; Calgary have scored 3 and conceded 16 in three losses. Colorado beat Calgary three times in 60 minutes last season, 9-2, 3-1 and 3-1.
| Attack & defence | CGY | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 0-3-0 | 2-1-0 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3 | 16 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 16 | 8 |
| Goals for per game | 1.00 | 5.33 |
NHL 2026-27, 3 games each · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Calgary vs Colorado: starting goalies and team news
Colorado's goalie on the back-to-back is the open question.
CalgaryExpected
Dustin Wolf- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .797
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 6.00
- Wins and losses.
- 0-2-0
ColoradoNot known yet
Scott Wedgewood- 2026-27
- No games yet
Calgary
- OutJonathan Huberdeau
Colorado
- DoubtLogan O'ConnorDay-to-day
TacticsMackenzie Blackwood started in Winnipeg, so we expect Scott Wedgewood, who has not played yet this season. MacKinnon, Makar, Necas, Landeskog and Nelson are all in the lineup; Logan O'Connor is day-to-day. Calgary are without Jonathan Huberdeau. Colorado may skip the morning skate, so their goalie could be named as late as warm-up.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Calgary vs Colorado?
The one model we found backs Colorado.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Colorado 71.2%, projected 3.78 to 2.35 | Same side |
Our positionFew sources so far, and that model has the goalies as unknown and does not yet include last night's loss. We take the win with overtime rather than the 60-minute market.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Calgary vs Colorado predicted score
Colorado's class tells after a slow start.
2:4 is our main score. 2:3 for Colorado in overtime is the alternative on tired legs; it still wins this pick, as would 3:1 or 5:2. Any Calgary win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 2:4
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
CGY
COL
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Calgary vs Colorado pick: Colorado win · incl. OT
Colorado win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think class decides this more than fatigue. Calgary score one goal a game, and even last night in Winnipeg Colorado lost by only one. The Avalanche beat Calgary three times in 60 minutes last season, and we expect MacKinnon and company to take over in the second half of the game even if the start is hard.
Our probability68–73%
Our pickColorado win · incl. OT
Leg odds1.33
Main scenario2:4
- Our scenario
- 2:4alternative 2:3
What would change our mind Colorado resting MacKinnon, Makar or someone from the top line, or starting a goalie called up from the farm team.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Colorado win · incl. OT | 1.33 | 75.2% |
| Calgary win · incl. OT | 3.10 | 32.3% |
| Calgary win in 60 min | 4.10 | 24.4% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.50 | 22.2% |
| Colorado win in 60 min | 1.68 | 59.5% |
| Colorado or draw in 60 min | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.62 | 61.7% |
| Under 5.5 goals | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 2.00 | 50% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.71 | 58.5% |
Odds snapshot 8 OCT 05:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- A back-to-back with travel, probably with a goalie who has not played this season.
- Calgary are rested and at home, and three straight losses often bring an angry start.
- Three games is a small sample for either team.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Double
Colorado win · incl. OT is one leg of our double No. 54. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.62, 2.00 units.
Open double No. 54 →Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Colorado win · incl. OT at 1.33
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:4Bet at 1.33
- Happened
- 3:7Colorado win
Won
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FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.