McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Edmonton
EdmontonvsUtah Edmonton Oilers vs Utah Mammoth · hockey prediction
Score
2:4
Date · UK
16 OCT
Local time
19:00 · 15 OCT
City
Edmonton
Status
Full time
EDM2:4UTAFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Edmonton vs Utah?
Our Oilers vs Mammoth prediction: a one-goal game at Rogers Place, 4:3 to Edmonton after overtime. The Edmonton Oilers are 5-0-1 and have won five in a row, but the expected starter is Devon Levi, who spent last season in the AHL. The Utah Mammoth outshoot their opponents 31.3 to 23.0 a game. Our pick is Utah +1.5, as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:3
- 4:3
- Our estimate
- 70–75%
- Market
- Utah +1.5
- Price now
- 1.44
Edmonton vs Utah at a glance
| Match | Edmonton Oilers vs Utah Mammoth |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 16 OCT · 02:00 UK |
| Venue | Rogers Place, Edmonton |
| Our pick | Utah +1.5 · 1.44 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 70–75% |
| Predicted score | 4:3 |
| Main reason | We expect a close game because the shot counts do not match the records: Edmonton are 5-0-1 but are outshot on average, while Utah take 31.3 shots a game and score on 34.5% of their power plays. |
No. 04 · Form
Edmonton vs Utah: recent form
Edmonton 5-0 in their last 5. Utah 3-2.
- Edmonton
- Won 4:1 in Los Angeles on Tue 13 Oct · 2,201 km flight home · second game in seven days
- Utah
- Beat Toronto 5:4 at home on Tue 13 Oct · 1,426 km flight to Edmonton · third game in seven days
Edmonton5-0
- Winvs Los Angeles4:1
- Winvs San Jose3:1
- Winvs Anaheim5:2
- Winvs Seattle3:1
- Winvs Vancouver9:7
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 4.80
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 40%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Utah3-2
- Winvs Toronto5:4
- Winvs Buffalo4:1
- Lossvs Boston1:6
- Winvs New Jersey5:3
- Lossvs NY Rangers2:4
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.60
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 0%
Key factEdmonton have won their last five: 9:7 in Vancouver, 3:1 against Seattle, then 5:2 in Anaheim, 3:1 in San Jose and 4:1 in Los Angeles on Tuesday. Utah are 3-2 in their last five, with a 6:1 loss in Boston between wins over New Jersey, Buffalo (4:1) and Toronto (5:4 on Tuesday).
| Attack & defence | EDM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 5-0-1 | 5-2-0 |
| Points % | 91.7% | 71.4% |
| Goal difference per game | +1.83 | +1.14 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 25.0 | 31.3 |
| Shots against | 26.0 | 23.0 |
| Special teams | EDM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 23.8% | 34.5% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 73.7% | 74.1% |
| Last season | EDM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 41-30-11 | 43-33-6 |
| Points % | 56.7% | 56.1% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.16 | +0.34 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 29.7 | 27.7 |
| Shots against | 26.7 | 26.1 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 30.6% | 20.0% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 77.8% | 78.1% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Edmonton vs Utah: starting goalies and team news
Levi and Vejmelka expected, neither confirmed; team news not confirmed.
EdmontonExpected
Devon Levi- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .903
- Starts
- 4
- NHL career starts
- 40
UtahExpected
Karel Vejmelka- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .895
- Starts
- 5
- SV% last season
- .897
Edmonton
No absences reported.
Utah
No absences reported.
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Devon Levi for Edmonton and Karel Vejmelka for Utah, both unconfirmed on Thursday morning (UK time). Levi has won all four of his starts with a .903 save percentage and stopped 39 of 40 shots in Los Angeles, but he has 40 NHL starts in his career and played last season in the AHL. Tristan Jarry, the other option, is at .837 in two starts. Vejmelka is Utah's clear No. 1: 63 starts and .897 last season, .895 in five starts this season. We did not find a confirmed injury report for either team before publishing.
In the news
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Edmonton vs Utah?
The one model we found has the game close to even.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers | Edmonton 53.3%, Utah 46.6% | Other side |
Our positionDimers and the line agree: Edmonton about 53%. We do not pick a winner here; we expect a one-goal game, and Utah +1.5 wins with any Utah win and any one-goal Edmonton win.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Edmonton vs Utah predicted score
Edmonton's results against Utah's shot count.
4:3 to Edmonton after overtime is our main score. Edmonton's record is better than their play: 25.0 shots for and 26.0 against a game, while Utah take 31.3 and allow 23.0. Edmonton finish their chances (4.8 goals a game) and Levi has been sharp, so a home win is a real outcome, but we expect Utah's volume to keep it within a goal. 2:3 to Utah is the alternative if Levi finally looks like a goalie with 40 NHL starts. Utah +1.5 loses only if Edmonton win by two goals or more, including an empty-net goal late in the game.
- Predicted score
- 4:3
- Alternative
- 2:3
Your score
EDM
UTA
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Edmonton vs Utah pick: Utah +1.5
Utah +1.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We expect a close game because the shot counts do not match the records: Edmonton are 5-0-1 but are outshot on average, while Utah take 31.3 shots a game and score on 34.5% of their power plays. In Edmonton's net is a goalie with 40 NHL starts who spent last season in the AHL; in Utah's, their first-choice goalie, with 63 starts last season. Last season the two teams were level, 56.7% of points for Edmonton and 56.1% for Utah. We expect 4:3 to Edmonton after overtime.
Our probability70–75%
Our pickUtah +1.5
Odds1.44
Main scenario4:3
- Wins with
- 3:22:14:32:31:22:4…
- Loses with
- 4:23:15:24:15:36:3…
- Our scenario
- 4:3alternative 2:3
What would change our mind Jarry confirmed for Edmonton would not change much; Utah starting Sebastian Cossa (.852 in two starts) instead of Vejmelka would.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Edmonton win · incl. OT | 1.79 | 55.9% |
| Utah win · incl. OT | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Edmonton win in 60 min | 2.20 | 45.5% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.41 | 22.7% |
| Utah win in 60 min | 2.64 | 37.9% |
| Utah +1.5 | 1.44 | 69.4% |
Odds snapshot 15 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Edmonton have won five straight, at home now, and scored 4.8 goals a game.
- Levi is 4-0 with a .903 save percentage and stopped 39 of 40 shots on Tuesday.
- A late empty-net goal turns a one-goal Edmonton win into the two-goal margin that beats Utah +1.5.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Utah +1.5 at 1.44 · analysis only. We expect 4:3, a one-goal game, but Edmonton's five-game run and two unconfirmed goalies keep us from betting on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Utah +1.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 4:3Utah +1.5 at 1.44
- Happened
- 2:4Utah win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.