McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Los Angeles
Los AngelesvsEdmonton Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers · hockey prediction
Score
1:4
Date · UK
14 OCT
Local time
19:30 · 13 OCT
City
Los Angeles
Status
Full time
LAK1:4EDMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Los Angeles vs Edmonton?
Our Kings vs Oilers prediction: a high-scoring game at Crypto.com Arena and a 4:3 Edmonton win. Our pick is Los Angeles +1.5, as analysis only. The Edmonton Oilers have won four straight and score 5.00 goals a game with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the top line; the Los Angeles Kings are still looking for their first win (0-2-2), but three of their four defeats were by one goal.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 3:4
- Our estimate
- 64–68%
- Market
- Los Angeles +1.5
- Price now
- 1.42
Los Angeles vs Edmonton at a glance
| Match | Los Angeles Kings vs Edmonton Oilers |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 03:30 UK |
| Venue | Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles |
| Our pick | Los Angeles +1.5 · 1.42 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 64–68% |
| Predicted score | 3:4 |
No. 04 · Form
Los Angeles vs Edmonton: recent form
Los Angeles 0-4 in their last 4. Edmonton 4-1.
- Los Angeles
- Lost in overtime in Vegas on Sat 10 Oct · three days of rest · back home after one road game
- Edmonton
- Won in San Jose on Sat 10 Oct · three days of rest · third straight road game, 491 km trip
Los Angeles0-4
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Vegas1:2 OT
- Lossvs Florida1:2
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs San Jose4:5 OT
- Lossvs Colorado4:8
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.50
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 4.25
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 50%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 50%
Edmonton4-1
- Winvs San Jose3:1
- Winvs Anaheim5:2
- Winvs Seattle3:1
- Winvs Vancouver9:7
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Vancouver5:6 OT
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 5.00
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Key factLos Angeles have lost all four games: 4:8 in Colorado, then three one-goal defeats (4:5 after overtime in San Jose, 1:2 against Florida, 1:2 after overtime in Vegas). Edmonton lost the opener 5:6 after overtime to Vancouver and have won four since: 9:7 in Vancouver, 3:1 against Seattle, 5:2 in Anaheim and 3:1 in San Jose.
| Attack & defence | LAK | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 0-2-2 | 4-0-1 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 2.50 | 5.00 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 4.25 | 3.40 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 28.3 | 26.6 |
| Shots against | 29.0 | 23.2 |
| Special teams | LAK | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 20.0% | 22.2% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 56.3% | 66.7% |
| Last season | LAK | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 35-27-20 | 41-30-11 |
| Points % | 54.9% | 56.7% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.27 | +0.16 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 17.0% | 30.6% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 74.6% | 77.8% |
NHL 2026-27, 4 and 5 games; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Los Angeles vs Edmonton: starting goalies and team news
Kuemper expected for Los Angeles; Edmonton's starter is open.
Los AngelesExpected
Darcy Kuemper- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .868
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 4.03
- Wins and losses.
- 0-2-1
EdmontonExpected
Devon Levi- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .863
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 3.35
- Wins and losses.
- 3-0-0
Los Angeles
- OutKevin FialaOut, reason not given
- OutMats ZuccarelloInjured reserve
- OutAlex TurcotteInjured reserve
Edmonton
- OutRyan Nugent-HopkinsInjured reserve
- OutFrederik AndersenInjured reserve
- OutMattias JanmarkInjured reserve
- OutAlec RegulaInjured reserve
- OutMatthew SavoieInjured reserve
- OutColton DachInjured reserve
- DoubtZach HymanDay-to-day
- DoubtJake WalmanDay-to-day
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Darcy Kuemper (0-2-1, .868) for Los Angeles and Devon Levi (3-0-0, .863) for Edmonton, both unconfirmed; Tristan Jarry started Edmonton's last game in San Jose, so who starts for the Oilers is not settled. Edmonton have six players on injured reserve, among them Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Frederik Andersen, with Zach Hyman and Jake Walman day-to-day. McDavid centres Podkolzin and Draisaitl. Los Angeles are without Kevin Fiala, Mats Zuccarello and Alex Turcotte; Panarin, Byfield and Kempe are their top line.
In the news
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
Report: Kings want Hellebuyck, but LA have one goal in each of their last four games
Our take A goalie won't fix four goals in four games
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Los Angeles vs Edmonton?
Both models see a near coin flip, with Edmonton slightly ahead.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Edmonton 53.2%, projected 3.50 to 3.16 | Other side |
| Dimers | Edmonton 52.4% | Other side |
Our positionThe models agree with the line: Edmonton about 53%, and DRatings projects a gap of 0.34 goals. We expect Edmonton to win, but by one goal, which is why our pick is the Kings +1.5. Neither winner looks likely enough for a bet.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Los Angeles vs Edmonton predicted score
Edmonton's power play against a Kings penalty kill at 56.3%.
3:4 to Edmonton is our main score: their power play decides it against a Los Angeles penalty kill at 56.3%, and neither goalie has started the season well. 3:2 to Los Angeles after overtime is the alternative, if the Kings, who have already lost twice in overtime, finally close out a tight game at home. Los Angeles +1.5 wins with 4:3 or 3:2 for Edmonton, any overtime result and any Kings win. It loses with 4:2, 5:3 or 5:2 for Edmonton.
- Predicted score
- 3:4
- Alternative
- 3:2
Your score
LAK
EDM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Los Angeles vs Edmonton pick: Los Angeles +1.5
Los Angeles +1.5: why this pick wins
Our probability64–68%
Our pickLos Angeles +1.5
Odds1.42
Main scenario3:4
- Wins with
- 3:24:23:12:14:35:2…
- Loses with
- 2:41:30:2…
- Our scenario
- 3:4alternative 3:2
What would change our mind Confirmation of the goalies at the morning skate would not change our score. Hyman returning, with the price moving three points or more towards Edmonton, would shift our view towards an Edmonton win by two.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles +1.5 | 1.42 | 70.4% |
| Los Angeles win · incl. OT | 2.01 | 49.8% |
| Edmonton win · incl. OT | 1.78 | 56.2% |
Odds snapshot 13 OCT 05:12 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Edmonton score 5.00 goals a game; it can turn into a 5:2 as it did in Anaheim on 7 October.
- Los Angeles conceded eight in Colorado and kill only 56.3% of penalties.
- Fiala and Zuccarello are out of the Kings' lineup.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Los Angeles +1.5 at 1.42 · analysis only, no bet: we expect a 4:3 Edmonton win, but the line and both models see a near coin flip.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:4Los Angeles +1.5 at 1.42
- Happened
- 1:4Edmonton win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.