Ottawa are 7-1 with Ullmark in goal. He left on a routine save, and Ersson is 0-2
Our take Ottawa's 7-3 start rests on one goalie
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · Ottawa
OttawavsFlorida Ottawa Senators vs Florida Panthers · hockey prediction
Score
5:1
Date · UK
22 OCT
Local time
19:30 · 21 OCT
City
Ottawa
Status
Full time
OTT5:1FLAFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Ottawa vs Florida?
Our Senators vs Panthers prediction: the Ottawa Senators beat the Florida Panthers at the Canadian Tire Centre, overtime and shootout included, and our main score is 3:2. It is Brady Tkachuk's first game back in Ottawa since the Senators traded their former captain to Florida in June for three first-round picks. Florida come without Aleksander Barkov and Brad Marchand, with Akira Schmid expected in goal; Ottawa miss Thomas Chabot and William Eklund and are expected to start Linus Ullmark. The line calls it 50-50. Our pick: Ottawa to win · analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 2:4
- 3:2
- Our estimate
- 50–55%
- Market
- Ottawa win · incl. OT
- Price now
- 1.92
Ottawa vs Florida at a glance
| Match | Ottawa Senators vs Florida Panthers |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 00:30 UK |
| Venue | Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa |
| Our pick | Ottawa win · incl. OT · 1.92 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 50–55% |
| Predicted score | 3:2 |
| Main reason | We think home ice, Ullmark in form and a Florida side without its captain and Marchand tip a level game slightly towards Ottawa. |
No. 04 · Form
Ottawa vs Florida: recent form
Ottawa 3-2 in their last 5. Florida 3-2.
- Ottawa
- Lost 1:3 in Philadelphia on Sat 17 Oct · four days of rest · 603 km trip home
- Florida
- Won 8:3 at home to Seattle on Sat 17 Oct · four days of rest · 2,164 km flight · first game of a four-game road trip, in Pittsburgh tomorrow
Ottawa3-2
- Lossvs Philadelphia1:3
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs NY Islanders2:1 SO
- Lossvs St. Louis2:7
- Winvs New Jersey4:1
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Nashville3:2 SO
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 2.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 2.80
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 20%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 40%
Florida3-2
- Winvs Seattle8:3
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Vancouver3:2 OT
- Winvs Columbus7:3
- Lossvs Buffalo3:5
- Lossvs Minnesota1:4
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 4.40
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Key factBoth teams are 3-2 in their last five. Ottawa beat Nashville and the Islanders in shootouts and won 4:1 in New Jersey, but lost 2:7 to St. Louis and 1:3 in Philadelphia on Saturday. Florida lost to Minnesota and in Buffalo, then won 7:3 in Columbus, 3:2 in overtime against Vancouver and 8:3 against Seattle. This season Ottawa take 23.1 shots a game and allow 26.2; Florida take 29.3 and allow 24.0. Last season Ottawa had 60.4% of the points, Florida 51.2%.
| Attack & defence | OTT | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 6-3-0 | 5-2-2 |
| Points % | 66.7% | 66.7% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.11 | +0.56 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 23.1 | 29.3 |
| Shots against | 26.2 | 24.0 |
| Special teams | OTT | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 12.8% | 20.9% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 79.4% | 80.6% |
| Last season | OTT | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 44-27-11 | 40-38-4 |
| Points % | 60.4% | 51.2% |
| Goal difference per game | +0.39 | -0.30 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 28.9 | 28.0 |
| Shots against | 24.4 | 26.8 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 24.0% | 19.5% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 75.7% | 81.0% |
NHL 2026-27 so far, and 2025-26 · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
Ottawa vs Florida: starting goalies and team news
Ullmark against Schmid, and Florida without their captain.
OttawaExpected
Linus Ullmark- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .945
- Starts
- 7
- SV% last season
- .891
- SV% 3 seasons
- .903
- NHL career starts
- 337
FloridaExpected
Akira Schmid- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .878
- Starts
- 3
- SV% last season
- .893
- SV% 3 seasons
- .896
- NHL career starts
- 68
Ottawa
- OutThomas ChabotArm or wrist injury suffered on 17 Oct
- OutWilliam EklundAnkle tendon surgery, out 10 to 12 weeks
- OutKurtis MacDermidInjured non-roster
Florida
- OutAleksander BarkovLower body, out about 6 to 8 weeks
- OutBrad MarchandLower body, out about six weeks
- OutJacob MarkstromInjured reserve since 20 Oct
- OutJonah GadjovichUpper body, out indefinitely
TacticsDaily Faceoff projects Linus Ullmark for Ottawa and Akira Schmid for Florida, both unconfirmed when we checked at about 05:00 UTC on 21 October. Ullmark has saved .945 in seven starts this season; Schmid has .878 in three. Jacob Markstrom, who played all of Florida's 8:3 win over Seattle, is listed on injured reserve since 20 October by ESPN; we did not find a second source for that. Florida are without Aleksander Barkov, out about six to eight weeks, and Brad Marchand, out about six weeks (NHL.com and ESPN). Ottawa lost Thomas Chabot to an arm or wrist injury in Philadelphia on Saturday (The Hockey News and ESPN) and William Eklund, out 10 to 12 weeks after ankle surgery.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Ottawa vs Florida?
The one model we found sees Ottawa ahead of the line.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Ottawa 59.0%, projected 3.29 to 2.32 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner but not on the size. The line has the game at 50-50, while DRatings gives Ottawa 59.0%. A model nine points above the market usually means the market knows something the model does not, such as Florida's real strength with both Tkachuks, so we stay close to the line at 50 to 55%. Dimers had not posted this night and we could not check MoneyPuck.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Ottawa vs Florida predicted score
Ullmark's form against Florida's shot volume.
3:2 to Ottawa is our main score: Florida have more of the puck and more shots, but Ullmark keeps saving at his current rate, and without Barkov Florida's centre line is thinner; a one-goal game or overtime. 2:4 to Florida is the alternative: Florida's power play, 20.9% this season, punishes an Ottawa side converting only 12.8% of its own, and the Tkachuk brothers set the tone. Any Ottawa win makes our pick, overtime and the shootout included; any Florida win beats it.
- Predicted score
- 3:2
- Alternative
- 2:4
Your score
OTT
FLA
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Ottawa vs Florida pick: Ottawa win · incl. OT
Ottawa win · incl. OT: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think home ice, Ullmark in form and a Florida side without its captain and Marchand tip a level game slightly towards Ottawa. DRatings sees the same side. But the line is even, Florida win the shot count, and Brady Tkachuk's return adds tension to every shift, so both results are possible and we are not sure enough to bet.
Our probability50–55%
Our pickOttawa win · incl. OT
Odds1.92
Main scenario3:2
- Our scenario
- 3:2alternative 2:4
What would change our mind Samuel Ersson in the Ottawa goal instead of Ullmark would move our pick to Florida.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Ottawa win · incl. OT | 1.92 | 52.1% |
| Florida win · incl. OT | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Ottawa win in 60 min | 2.40 | 41.7% |
| Draw in 60 min | 4.14 | 24.2% |
| Florida win in 60 min | 2.48 | 40.3% |
| Ottawa +1.5 | 1.34 | 74.6% |
| Over 5.5 goals | 1.78 | 56.2% |
| Under 5.5 goals | 2.03 | 49.3% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 05:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Ottawa take only 23.1 shots a game and allow 26.2: they live on Ullmark's .945, and his three-season rate is .903.
- Without Chabot, Ottawa's defence is thinner still, and their power play has scored on 12.8% of chances.
- Florida are 5-2-2 and +0.56 a game despite their absences, and Brady Tkachuk will want this one more than any game in October.
- The line is 50-50 and neither goalie was confirmed by a reporter.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Ottawa win · incl. OT at 1.92 · analysis only. We expect 3:2; at 50-50 the game is too open for a bet.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Ottawa win · incl. OT, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:2Ottawa win · incl. OT at 1.92
- Happened
- 5:1Ottawa win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.