Ottawa are 7-1 with Ullmark in goal. He left on a routine save, and Ersson is 0-2
Our take Ottawa's 7-3 start rests on one goalie
Hockey · USA · NHL · Regular season · San Jose
San JosevsEdmonton San Jose Sharks vs Edmonton Oilers · hockey prediction
Score
1:3
Date · UK
10 OCT
Local time
13:00 · 10 OCT
City
San Jose
Status
Full time
SJS1:3EDMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win San Jose vs Edmonton?
Connor McDavid brings 12 points from four games to San Jose, where the Sharks wait until the warm-up to know if Macklin Celebrini plays. Edmonton are the favourites, but they travel without Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman, and Tristan Jarry starts in goal after a .739 opener. We expect Edmonton to win 4:3, and our pick is San Jose +1.5, without a bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:5
- 3:4
- Our estimate
- 61–65%
- Market
- San Jose +1.5
- Price now
- 1.54
San Jose vs Edmonton at a glance
| Match | San Jose Sharks vs Edmonton Oilers |
|---|---|
| Competition | NHL · Regular season |
| Kick-off | 10 OCT · 21:00 UK |
| Venue | SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose |
| Our pick | San Jose +1.5 · 1.54 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 61–65% |
| Predicted score | 3:4 |
No. 04 · Form
San Jose vs Edmonton: recent form
San Jose 4-1 in their last 5. Edmonton 4-1.
- San Jose
- Won in overtime in St. Louis on Thu 8 Oct · one day of rest · long flight home, two time zones
- Edmonton
- Won in Anaheim on Wed 7 Oct · two days of rest · short flight, second straight road game
San Jose4-1
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs St. Louis3:2 OT
- Lossvs Dallas0:5
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Los Angeles5:4 OT
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Florida4:3 OT
- Winvs Winnipeg6:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 3.60
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.00
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 60%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 60%
Edmonton4-1
- Winvs Anaheim5:2
- Winvs Seattle3:1
- Winvs Vancouver9:7
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Vancouver5:6 OT
- Winvs Vancouver6:1
- Goals scored per game, overtime included.
- 5.60
- Goals allowed per game, overtime included.
- 3.40
- Share of these games with six or more goals, overtime included.
- 80%
- Share of these games decided in overtime or a shootout.
- 20%
Key factSan Jose are 3-1-0, but all three wins came in overtime and they lost 5:0 in Dallas; they are outshot 28.3 to 24.3 a game. Edmonton are 3-0-1 and score 5.5 goals a game, including a 9:7 win in Vancouver, but they also allow four.
| Attack & defence | SJS | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-1-0 | 3-0-1 |
| Goals scored per game, overtime included. | 3.00 | 5.50 |
| Goals allowed per game, overtime included. | 3.50 | 4.00 |
| Shots on goal per game. | 24.3 | 28.3 |
| Shots against | 28.3 | 24.0 |
| Special teams | SJS | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 16.7% | 25.0% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 78.6% | 64.3% |
| Last season | SJS | EDM |
|---|---|---|
| Points % | 52.4% | 56.7% |
| Goal difference per game | -0.50 | +0.16 |
| Share of power plays (a player advantage) that end with a goal. | 21.2% | 30.6% |
| Share of opponents’ power plays stopped without conceding. | 76.4% | 77.8% |
NHL 2026-27, 4 games each; 2025-26 regular season · NHL stats
No. 05 · Goalies & team newsExpected
San Jose vs Edmonton: starting goalies and team news
Jarry is confirmed for Edmonton; Celebrini is a game-time decision.
San JoseExpected
Alex Nedeljkovic- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .923
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 1.97
- Wins and losses.
- 1-0-0
EdmontonConfirmed
Tristan Jarry- Save percentage: share of shots the goalie stops.
- .739
- Goals against average: goals the goalie allows per 60 minutes.
- 5.85
- Wins and losses.
- 0-0-1
San Jose
- DoubtMacklin CelebriniLower body, game-time decision; missed the last two games
- DoubtKiefer SherwoodUpper body, game-time decision; missed Friday's practice
- ProbableAdam GaudetteUpper body; practised fully on Friday and could return
- FormDarnell NurseFaces his former club Edmonton
Edmonton
- OutRyan Nugent-HopkinsLower body
- OutZach HymanUndisclosed injury; skated at Friday's practice
- OutFrederik AndersenUndisclosed injury
- FormConnor McDavid12 points in four games: 3 goals, 9 assists
TacticsDaily Faceoff lists Tristan Jarry as confirmed for Edmonton (.739 in his only start) and Alex Nedeljkovic as unconfirmed for San Jose (.923 in one start); Yaroslav Askarov (.862 in three) is the other Sharks option. Celebrini, with five points in two games before his lower-body injury, and Kiefer Sherwood are game-time decisions, according to the NHL.com preview. Edmonton miss Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman and Frederik Andersen; McDavid and Leon Draisaitl stay together on the top line, and Darnell Nurse faces his former club on the San Jose blue line.
In the news
McDavid has 26 points in nine games, and Minnesota's bench gave him the last one
Our take Minnesota lost this game in the penalty box
Kaprizov's 10 goals in 9 games meets McDavid's 23 points in Tuesday's Edmonton duel
Our take Kaprizov's goals will slow. McDavid's assists won't
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in San Jose vs Edmonton?
Both models we checked pick Edmonton, by about one goal.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| DRatings | Edmonton 60.3%, projected 4.00 to 2.97 | Other side |
| Dimers | Edmonton to win, 57.6% | Other side |
Our positionWe also expect an Edmonton win, but a close one: both goalies are leaking goals and San Jose keep taking games to overtime. That is why our pick also counts a one-goal Edmonton win. DRatings expects almost seven goals, and a game that open can end with a two-goal gap.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
San Jose vs Edmonton predicted score
McDavid against a team that plays to overtime.
3:4 to Edmonton, possibly after overtime, is our main score: McDavid and Draisaitl decide it on the power play, San Jose stay close as they have in three overtime games already. 2:5 is the alternative if Celebrini does not play and the Sharks lose the shot count again. Any San Jose win, any game that goes to overtime and a one-goal Edmonton win all win our pick; Edmonton by two or more in regulation, including a late empty-net goal, loses it.
- Predicted score
- 3:4
- Alternative
- 2:5
Your score
SJS
EDM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our San Jose vs Edmonton pick: San Jose +1.5
San Jose +1.5: why this pick wins
Our probability61–65%
Our pickSan Jose +1.5
Odds1.54
Main scenario3:4
- Wins with
- 3:24:23:12:14:35:2…
- Loses with
- 2:41:30:2…
- Our scenario
- 3:4alternative 2:5
What would change our mind Celebrini taking the warm-up and Askarov starting in goal would make San Jose +1.5 stronger. Celebrini ruled out would make an Edmonton win by two more likely.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose +1.5 | 1.54 | 64.9% |
| Edmonton −1.5 | 2.52 | 39.7% |
| San Jose win · incl. OT | 2.26 | 44.2% |
| Edmonton win · incl. OT | 1.65 | 60.6% |
| Over 6.5 goals | 1.94 | 51.5% |
| Under 6.5 goals | 1.87 | 53.5% |
Odds snapshot 10 OCT 10:26 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Edmonton score 5.5 goals a game and DRatings projects almost seven in total: in an open game a two-goal margin is common.
- Celebrini may not play, and without him San Jose lose their top centre.
- The Sharks are outshot 28.3 to 24.3 a game, and they lost 5:0 in Dallas.
- San Jose flew home from St. Louis with one day of rest; Edmonton had two.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: San Jose +1.5 at 1.54 · analysis only, no bet: we expect Edmonton to win, but the models see an open game and Celebrini is still a doubt.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 3:4San Jose +1.5 at 1.54
- Happened
- 1:3Edmonton win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.