PAOK FC vs PS Kalamata prediction and odds

No. 01 · The short versionIn our Double

Who will win PAOK vs Kalamata?

PAOK host Kalamata at Toumba on Monday after 22 days without a game. PAOK are fourth on 12 points with a 12:5 goal difference; Kalamata are 11th on 4 points and have won one of their last five. PAOK are without goalkeeper Jiří Pavlenka and Taha Ali, both after shoulder surgery. We back a PAOK home win, most likely 2:0.

Predicted score · alt 1:1: 2:0
Our estimate: 75–79%

PAOK win · odds 1.17Our estimate, not a guarantee

Why this call18+Play responsibly

Market: PAOK win
Our bet: Double No. 72 · total odds 1.52
Leg odds: 1.17

PAOK vs Kalamata at a glance

Match	PAOK FC vs PS Kalamata
Competition	Super League · Matchday 6
Kick-off	12 OCT · 16:00 UK · 18:00 Thessaloniki
Venue	Toumba Stadium, Thessaloniki
Our pick	PAOK win · 1.17 · Double No. 72 · total odds 1.52
Our estimate	75–79%
Predicted score	2:0
Main reason	We think PAOK at home to Kalamata is one of the safest favourites of the day: they have not lost any of their last ten league games at Toumba, winning seven.

No. 04 · Form

PAOK vs Kalamata: recent form

PAOK 9 from 12. Kalamata 4 from 15.

PAOK9 pts

Winvs Panetolikos3:1
Winvs Aris2:0
Lossvs Panathinaikos1:3
Winvs Atromitos2:1

: 2.00
: 1.25
: 75%
: 75%

Kalamata4 pts

Lossvs Panathinaikos0:1
Winvs Volos3:1
Drawvs Atromitos1:1
Lossvs Panetolikos0:2
Lossvs Aris2:3

: 1.20
: 1.60
: 40%
: 60%

Key factPAOK are fourth on 12 points from five games (12:5) and have not lost any of their last ten home league games, winning seven. Kalamata are 11th on 4 points (6:8), and their only win in five was 3:1 against Volos. PAOK won both cup meetings in 2022/23, each 2:0.

No. 05 · LineupsExpected

PAOK vs Kalamata team news

PAOK without Pavlenka and Taha Ali after shoulder surgery; Lisci names no squad.

PAOK

OutJiří PavlenkaShoulder surgery
OutTaha AliShoulder surgery
DoubtKiril DespodovTrained in part, not expected to play

Kalamata

No absences reported.

TacticsAlessio Lisci did not announce a squad on Sunday. Gazzetta and Sport24 report that goalkeeper Jiří Pavlenka and Taha Ali, who both started and were hurt in the 3:1 win at Panetolikos, are out after shoulder surgery in Munich and expect to be back in about three months. Kiril Despodov trained in part with the group but is not expected to play; he was already missing in Agrinio. Giannoulis and Chatzidiakos are back in training. We found no confirmed team news for Kalamata, and the previews name different coaches for them. The official line-ups are not out yet.

No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2

Who do others back in PAOK vs Kalamata?

Both previews we found back a PAOK win.

Source	Pick	Versus us
KickOff	PAOK 2:0	Same side
SportsGambler	PAOK 3:0	Same side

Our positionWe agree on the winner and take the plain home win, with no handicap. Without Pavlenka and Taha Ali we expect 2:0 rather than a rout.

No. 07 · Scenario & score

PAOK vs Kalamata predicted score

PAOK push from the start, Kalamata sit deep.

PAOK should have most of the ball against a Kalamata side that defends in a low block. 2:0 is our main score, with the second goal after the break. 1:1 is the risk: a slow PAOK after three weeks off and a Kalamata goal from a set piece. Any PAOK win settles this leg; a draw or a Kalamata win beats it.

Predicted score: 2:0
Alternative: 1:1

Your score

PAO2

KAL0

No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our PAOK vs Kalamata pick: PAOK win

PAOK win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We think PAOK at home to Kalamata is one of the safest favourites of the day: they have not lost any of their last ten league games at Toumba, winning seven. Kalamata have one win in five and score 1.2 goals a game. PAOK lose Pavlenka and Taha Ali, while Giannoulis and Chatzidiakos are back in training. We expect 2:0.

Our probability75–79%

Our pickPAOK win

Leg odds1.17

Main scenario2:0

Our scenario: 2:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind Two more first-choice players missing from the PAOK team sheet, in defence or up front.

Odds and break-even, for reference

Market	Odds	Break-even
PAOK win	1.17	85.5%
Draw	7.00	14.3%
Kalamata win	12.00	8.3%
Both teams to score	2.05	48.8%
Both teams not to score	1.70	58.8%

Odds snapshot 12 OCT 08:33 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why this could go wrong.

PAOK play without goalkeeper Pavlenka and Taha Ali, and Despodov is not expected to play.
PAOK lost two of their last five, at Panathinaikos and in Conference League qualifying, and took 12 shots a game to their opponents’ 14.5 over that run.
It is the first game after a 22-day break, with the internationals back late.

No. 10 · Editor’s call

Double

PAOK win is one leg of our double No. 72. We bet the double, not this match alone: total odds 1.52, 2.00 units.

Leg 1 · this match: PAOK win @ 1.17
Leg 2: Elfsborg win @ 1.30
Total odds: 1.52 · 2.00 units
Published: 12 OCT 08:50

Open double No. 72 →

Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly

No. 11 · Update log

08:50Prediction published · PAOK win at 1.17

No. 12 · After the match

We said: 2:0Bet at 1.17
Happened: 1:3Kalamata win

Lost

FAQ

What does Bet mean?

We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.

PAOKvsKalamata PAOK FC vs PS Kalamata · prediction