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Tennis · ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · ATP Masters 1000 · Fourth round · Hard
Alex de MinaurvsKaren Khachanov prediction · Shanghai Masters 2026
Date
13 OCT
Court
Stadium Court
Order of play
First match on court (starts at 12:00 PM), not before 12:00 local (05:00 UK)
Status
6:3 6:4
Analysis onlyDE 05:00 UKKHAAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win de Minaur vs Khachanov?
Alex de Minaur, the No. 9 seed, plays Karen Khachanov in the Shanghai Masters fourth round on Tuesday. Our prediction: de Minaur wins in three sets, most likely 6:4, 6:7, 6:4; this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Our pick
- 52–56%
- Our pick
- Alex de Minaur win
- Odds at publish
- 1.85
- Set by set
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:4
- Not before (UK)
- 05:00
de Minaur vs Khachanov at a glance
| Match | Alex de Minaur vs Karen Khachanov |
|---|---|
| Tournament | ATP · Shanghai Masters, Shanghai · Fourth round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 13 OCT · 05:00 UK · 12:00 local |
| Court | Stadium Court · First match on court (starts at 12:00 PM) |
| Our pick | Alex de Minaur win · 1.85 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 52–56% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 (6:4, 6:7, 6:4) |
| Main reason | He reached the Beijing final and retired against Novak Djokovic after losing the first set on 6 October, later saying he needed scans. |
No. 02 · Form
de Minaur vs Khachanov: recent form
De Minaur retired in the Beijing final; Khachanov has won 4 of his last 5
Alex de MinaurLast 10: 9-1
- Won v Kasnikowski M. 6-3, 6-0
- Won v Majchrzak K. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Zverev A. 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9
- Won v Navone M. 7-6(4), 6-2
- Won v Halys Q. 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5
- Won v Rublev A. 1-6, 6-2, 6-3
- Won v Hurkacz H. 6-4, 3-2 ret.
- Lost to Djokovic N. 7-6(3), 0-1 ret.
- Won v Molcan A.
- Won v Sakamoto R. 7-6(6), 6-4
Karen KhachanovLast 10: 8-2
- Won v Auger Aliassime F. 6(5)-7, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Bonzi B. 6-3, 6-2, 6-4
- Won v Tien L. 7-5, 4-6, 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-4
- Won v Blockx A. 6-2, 7-5, 3-2 ret.
- Lost to Zverev A. 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6)
- Won v Auger Aliassime F. 6-3, 6-3
- Won v Molcan A. 7-5, 6-3
- Lost to Hurkacz H. 7-6(2), 6-2
- Won v Fery A. 7-6(6), 6(5)-7, 7-6(2)
- Won v Mannarino A. 6-2, 6-4
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Sakamoto R.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 7-6(6), 6-4 |
| Won v | Molcan A.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | |
| Lost to | Djokovic N.Beijing · 06.10.26 | 7-6(3), 0-1 ret. |
| Won v | Hurkacz H.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 3-2 ret. |
| Won v | Rublev A.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 1-6, 6-2, 6-3 |
| Won v | Halys Q.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 3-6, 7-6(5), 7-5 |
| Won v | Navone M.Beijing · 01.10.26 | 7-6(4), 6-2 |
| Won v | Zverev A.Laver Cup · 26.09.26 | 2-6, 7-6(5), 11-9 |
| Won v | Majchrzak K.Davis Cup · 20.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Won v | Kasnikowski M.Davis Cup · 19.09.26 | 6-3, 6-0 |
| Won v | Mannarino A.Shanghai · 11.10.26 | 6-2, 6-4 |
| Won v | Fery A.Shanghai · 09.10.26 | 7-6(6), 6(5)-7, 7-6(2) |
| Lost to | Hurkacz H.Beijing · 04.10.26 | 7-6(2), 6-2 |
| Won v | Molcan A.Beijing · 02.10.26 | 7-5, 6-3 |
| Won v | Auger Aliassime F.Beijing · 30.09.26 | 6-3, 6-3 |
| Lost to | Zverev A.US Open · 11.09.26 | 6-3, 7-6(7), 7-6(6) |
| Won v | Blockx A.US Open · 09.09.26 | 6-2, 7-5, 3-2 ret. |
| Won v | Tien L.US Open · 07.09.26 | 7-5, 4-6, 6(6)-7, 6-1, 6-4 |
| Won v | Bonzi B.US Open · 05.09.26 | 6-3, 6-2, 6-4 |
| Won v | Auger Aliassime F.US Open · 03.09.26 | 6(5)-7, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 |
De Minaur’s fitnessHe reached the Beijing final and retired against Novak Djokovic after losing the first set on 6 October, later saying he needed scans. In Shanghai he got a walkover from Alex Molcan and beat Rei Sakamoto 7:6, 6:4 on 11 October.
No. 03 · Context
The No. 9 seed against the No. 26 seed for a Shanghai quarter-final, first on Stadium Court
- Khachanov’s run
- He beat Arthur Fery in three tie-breaks and Adrian Mannarino 6:2, 6:4 in Shanghai. In Beijing he beat Felix Auger-Aliassime and lost to Hubert Hurkacz in the quarter-finals; at the US Open he reached the semi-finals.
- Season and surface
- De Minaur is 43-19 this season and 25-10 on hard courts. Khachanov is 27-22 and 18-13 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Level at 2-2, all on hard courts. De Minaur won the last meeting 6:2, 6:2 at the 2025 Paris Masters; Khachanov won in Vienna in 2024.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Khachanov holds serve in 88.7% of his games over his last ten matches, de Minaur 81.1%
| Stat | de Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 43-19 (better) | 27-22 |
| On hard courts | 25-10 (better) | 18-13 |
| Last 10 matches | 9-1 (better) | 8-2 |
| As favourite | 40-16 (better) | 23-15 |
| As underdog | 3-3 (better) | 4-6 |
| Stat | de Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Matches (W-L) | 10 (8-2) | 10 (8-2) |
| Aces per match | 5.8 | 8.2 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 2.9 | 2.6 (better) |
| 1st serve in | 56.9% | 63.2% (better) |
| 1st serve points won | 70.5% | 76.8% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 58.7% (better) | 54.4% |
| Service games held | 81.1% | 88.7% (better) |
| Break points saved | 71.3% (better) | 63.6% |
| Stat | de Minaur | Khachanov |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 37.3% | 39.0% (better) |
| Return games won | 19.4% | 29.1% (better) |
| Break points converted | 36.4% | 53.9% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 12 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: last 10 tour matches with stats, Alex de Minaur 13.08.2026–07.10.2026, Karen Khachanov 31.08.2026–07.10.2026. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head4 meetings
Level 2-2
| 2025 | De MinaurParis Masters · Hard · R16 | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024 | KhachanovVienna · Hard · SF | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022 | KhachanovDubai · Hard · R32 | 6-3 6-7(1) 7-5 |
| 2020 | De MinaurUS Open · Hard · R32 | 6-4 0-6 4-6 6-3 6-1 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 3 of 3
Who do others back in de Minaur vs Khachanov?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Tennis.com | De Minaur projected winner, 57% | Same side |
| Dimers (model) | De Minaur, 52.9% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | De Minaur, 69.3% to reach the quarter-finals | Same side |
Our position3 of 3 back de Minaur. We are on de Minaur’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
de Minaur vs Khachanov predicted score
Speed against serve
Over their last ten matches with stats Khachanov holds serve more often (88.7% against 81.1%) and converts more break points (53.9% against 36.4%), while de Minaur wins more second-serve points (58.7% against 54.4%). We expect one tie-break and a de Minaur win in three sets, 6:4, 6:7, 6:4; a Khachanov win is just as real if de Minaur is not fully fit.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:4
- Alternative
- 1:2
- 4:6, 6:4, 4:6
No. 08 · Our pick
Our de Minaur vs Khachanov pick: Alex de Minaur win
Our pick: de Minaur, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect de Minaur to win, but he retired injured in the Beijing final on 6 October and the market has him much closer than the Elo ratings do. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick52–56%
Our pickAlex de Minaur win
Odds1.85
Main scenario2:1
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 6:7, 6:42:1 in sets
- Alternative
- 4:6, 6:4, 4:61:2 in sets
What would change our mind Any sign that de Minaur’s injury from Beijing is still bothering him.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- De Minaur retired in the Beijing final on 6 October and needed scans.
- Khachanov holds serve more often and converts more break points over their last ten matches with stats.
- The market makes it close (de Minaur 1.85, Khachanov 2.00), well below the Elo ratings’ 67%.