Marta Kostyuk needs a Ningbo final, or Muchova takes the last WTA Finals place
Our take Muchova can book her flight to Indian Wells
Tennis · WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · WTA 1000 · Second round · Hard
Maria SakkarivsMarta Kostyuk prediction · Wuhan Open 2026
Date
13 OCT
Court
Center Court
Order of play
Third match on court, after Siniakova v Samsonova and Guo v Cirstea, not before 11:00 local (04:00 UK)
Status
4:6 6:2 6:2
Analysis onlySAK04:00 UKKOSAnalysis only
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Sakkari vs Kostyuk?
Marta Kostyuk, the No. 8 seed, plays Maria Sakkari in the Wuhan Open second round on Tuesday. Our prediction: Kostyuk wins in three sets, most likely 4:6, 6:4, 6:4 from her side; this is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Our pick
- 60–64%
- Our pick
- Marta Kostyuk win
- Odds at publish
- 1.50
- Set by set
- 6:4, 4:6, 4:6
- Not before (UK)
- 04:00
Sakkari vs Kostyuk at a glance
| Match | Maria Sakkari vs Marta Kostyuk |
|---|---|
| Tournament | WTA · Wuhan Open, Wuhan · Second round |
| Surface | Hard |
| Start | 13 OCT · 04:00 UK · 11:00 local |
| Court | Center Court · Third match on court, after Siniakova v Samsonova and Guo v Cirstea |
| Our pick | Marta Kostyuk win · 1.50 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 60–64% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 (6:4, 4:6, 4:6) |
| Main reason | Her last match was a 6:4, 2:6, 5:7 quarter-final loss to Liudmila Samsonova in Guadalajara on 18 September. |
No. 02 · Form
Sakkari vs Kostyuk: recent form
Kostyuk returns after 25 days out; Sakkari beat Vekic 6:4, 6:2 on Monday
Maria SakkariLast 10: 6-4
- Won v Rakhimova K. 6-2, 5-7, 6-1
- Lost to Swiatek I. 4-6, 6-1, 6-1
- Won v Montgomery R. 2-6, 7-5, 6-2
- Lost to Starodubtseva Y. 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2
- Won v Fruhvirtova L. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Hibino N. 7-5, 6-1
- Lost to Gibson T. 6-1, 4-6, 6-2
- Won v Hunter S. 6-2, 6-2
- Lost to Svitolina E. 6-4, 7-5
- Won v Vekic D. 6-4, 6-2
Marta KostyukLast 10: 7-3
- Won v Kenin S. 4-6, 6-3, 7-5
- Won v Stephens S. 7-5, 7-5
- Won v Andreeva M. 4-6, 6-0, 6-2
- Lost to Gauff C. 6-2, 6-2
- Won v Hunter S. 6-4, 6-1
- Won v Stephens S. 6-1, 7-5
- Won v Alexandrova E. 6-3, 6-2
- Lost to Noskova L. 7-5, 5-7, 6-4
- Won v Townsend T.
- Lost to Samsonova L. 4-6, 6-2, 7-5
Last ten results, oldest to newest; the ringed one is the latest. Tap a result for the opponent and score.
Show the matches
| Won v | Vekic D.Wuhan · 12.10.26 | 6-4, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Svitolina E.Beijing · 05.10.26 | 6-4, 7-5 |
| Won v | Hunter S.Beijing · 03.10.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Gibson T.Singapore WTA · 25.09.26 | 6-1, 4-6, 6-2 |
| Won v | Hibino N.Singapore WTA · 24.09.26 | 7-5, 6-1 |
| Won v | Fruhvirtova L.Singapore WTA · 22.09.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Starodubtseva Y.US Open · 04.09.26 | 1-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 |
| Won v | Montgomery R.US Open · 01.09.26 | 2-6, 7-5, 6-2 |
| Lost to | Swiatek I.Cincinnati WTA · 17.08.26 | 4-6, 6-1, 6-1 |
| Won v | Rakhimova K.Cincinnati WTA · 15.08.26 | 6-2, 5-7, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Samsonova L.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 18.09.26 | 4-6, 6-2, 7-5 |
| Won v | Townsend T.Guadalajara 2 WTA · 17.09.26 | |
| Lost to | Noskova L.US Open · 06.09.26 | 7-5, 5-7, 6-4 |
| Won v | Alexandrova E.US Open · 04.09.26 | 6-3, 6-2 |
| Won v | Stephens S.US Open · 02.09.26 | 6-1, 7-5 |
| Won v | Hunter S.US Open · 30.08.26 | 6-4, 6-1 |
| Lost to | Gauff C.Cincinnati WTA · 22.08.26 | 6-2, 6-2 |
| Won v | Andreeva M.Cincinnati WTA · 19.08.26 | 4-6, 6-0, 6-2 |
| Won v | Stephens S.Cincinnati WTA · 18.08.26 | 7-5, 7-5 |
| Won v | Kenin S.Cincinnati WTA · 16.08.26 | 4-6, 6-3, 7-5 |
Kostyuk’s wristHer last match was a 6:4, 2:6, 5:7 quarter-final loss to Liudmila Samsonova in Guadalajara on 18 September. She then withdrew from the Billie Jean King Cup Finals, saying an MRI showed the wrist needed more time, and from the China Open. She had a first-round bye in Wuhan.
No. 03 · Context
The No. 8 seed opens her tournament against a former world No. 3
- Sakkari’s week
- She beat Donna Vekic 6:4, 6:2 on Monday after trailing 4:2 in the first set. In Beijing she lost to Elina Svitolina 4:6, 5:7 in the third round; in Singapore she reached the quarter-finals.
- Season and surface
- Kostyuk is 37-10 this season, 15-8 on hard courts and 16-1 on clay. Sakkari is 27-20 and 18-12 on hard courts.
- Head to head
- Level at 2-2. Kostyuk won on clay at the 2024 Olympics and on grass at Wimbledon 2023; Sakkari won both of their hard-court meetings.
In the news
No. 04 · Stats comparison
Kostyuk wins 44.1% of her return games, Sakkari 33.1%
| Stat | Sakkari | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Season record | 27-20 | 37-10 (better) |
| On hard courts | 18-12 | 15-8 (better) |
| Last 10 matches | 5-5 | 7-3 (better) |
| As favourite | 19-6 | 30-5 (better) |
| As underdog | 6-14 | 7-5 (better) |
| Stat | Sakkari | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Matches | 43 | 45 |
| Aces per match | 3.1 | 4.0 (better) |
| Double faults per match | 2.3 (better) | 4.2 |
| 1st serve in | 62.4% (better) | 57.2% |
| 1st serve points won | 64.5% | 71.2% (better) |
| 2nd serve points won | 50.1% (better) | 46.9% |
| Service games held | 69.8% | 74.4% (better) |
| Break points saved | 57.8% | 60.8% (better) |
| Stat | Sakkari | Kostyuk |
|---|---|---|
| Return points won | 42.2% | 47.3% (better) |
| Return games won | 33.1% | 44.1% (better) |
| Break points converted | 47.1% | 48.8% (better) |
Form rows: 2026 season to 11 October (Tennis Explorer). Serve and return: 2026 season, official WTA stats (Sakkari 43 matches, Kostyuk 45).. We read the data from Tennis Explorer, Tennis Abstract and the WTA and ATP tours, and form our own view.
No. 05 · Head to head4 meetings
Level 2-2
| 2024 | KostyukOlympics · Clay · R16 | 4-6 7-6(5) 6-4 |
| 2023 | KostyukWimbledon · Grass · R128 | 0-6 7-5 6-2 |
| 2022 | SakkariGuadalajara · Hard · R32 | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2021 | SakkariUs Open · Hard · R128 | 6-4 6-3 |
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Sakkari vs Kostyuk?
| Source | Their view | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Dimers (model) | Kostyuk, 62.6% | Same side |
| Tennis Abstract Elo | Kostyuk, 71.1% | Same side |
Our position2 of 2 back Kostyuk. We are on Kostyuk’s side.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Sakkari vs Kostyuk predicted score
Kostyuk in three sets
On her numbers Kostyuk is clearly better: she holds serve in 74.4% of her games this season to Sakkari’s 69.8% and breaks in 44.1% of return games to 33.1%. After 25 days without a match we expect a slow start and a lost set: 4:6, 6:4, 6:4. A Sakkari win in three sets is the alternative.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- 6:4, 4:6, 4:6
- Alternative
- 2:1
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:4
No. 08 · Our pick
Our Sakkari vs Kostyuk pick: Marta Kostyuk win
Our pick: Kostyuk, analysis only
Why analysis only
We expect Kostyuk to win, but she has not played since 18 September because of a wrist injury that kept her out of Beijing and the Billie Jean King Cup Finals. We are not sure enough of the result to stake on it.
Our pick60–64%
Our pickMarta Kostyuk win
Odds1.50
Main scenario1:2
- Our scenario
- 6:4, 4:6, 4:61:2 in sets
- Alternative
- 6:4, 3:6, 6:42:1 in sets
What would change our mind Strapping on Kostyuk’s wrist, a medical time-out or any withdrawal news.
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
- Kostyuk has not played since 18 September and pulled out of two events with the wrist.
- Sakkari has already played on these courts and won both of their hard-court meetings.
- Sakkari wins more second-serve points this season (50.1% against 46.9%).