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Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 4 · Manresa

ManresavsUnicaja Kids&Us Manresa vs Unicaja · basketball prediction

Score
72:84
Date · UK
17 OCT
Local time
18:00 · 17 OCT
City
Manresa
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Manresa vs Unicaja?

Our Manresa vs Unicaja prediction: Unicaja win at the Nou Congost, and our main score is 86:90. Kids&Us Manresa are 0-3 in the Liga Endesa with the worst defence in the league, 109.3 points allowed a game, and their top scorer Timmy Allen is a doubt. Unicaja are 1-2 and still without Tyson Pérez, Yannick Nzosa and Alberto Díaz, so we expect a close finish. Our pick is Unicaja to win, as analysis only.

Predicted score · alt 94:91
86:90
Our estimate
58–62%
Unicaja win · odds 1.49Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Unicaja win
Price now
1.49

Manresa vs Unicaja at a glance

MatchKids&Us Manresa vs Unicaja
CompetitionLiga Endesa · Regular season, round 4
Kick-off17 OCT · 17:00 UK
VenueNou Congost, Manresa
Our pickUnicaja win · 1.49 · analysis only
Our estimate58–62%
Predicted score86:90
Main reasonManresa have allowed 109.3 points a game and let opponents shoot 59.3% on two-pointers, the worst figures in the league.
No. 04 · Form

Manresa vs Unicaja: recent form

Manresa 1-4 in their last 5. Unicaja 1-2.

Manresa
EuroCup defeat at Bahçeşehir in Istanbul on Tue 13 Oct · three full days' rest
Unicaja
Last game at home to MoraBanc Andorra on Sat 10 Oct · a full week to prepare
Manresa1-4
  • Lossvs Bahçeşehir88:100
  • Lossvs Real Madrid83:120
  • Winvs Ulm101:89
  • Lossvs Río Breogán95:101
  • Lossvs PAOK78:93
Points scored per game in these games.
89.0
Points allowed per game in these games.
100.6
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
189.6
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
−11.6
Unicaja1-2
  • Winvs MoraBanc Andorra92:84
  • Lossvs La Laguna Tenerife75:80
  • Lossvs Real Madrid87:89
Points scored per game in these games.
84.7
Points allowed per game in these games.
84.3
Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
169.0
Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
+0.3
Key factManresa have lost all three league games, 92:107 in Bilbao, 95:101 at home to Río Breogán and 83:120 at Real Madrid, a points difference of -58. In the EuroCup they beat Ulm 101:89 at home and lost 78:93 at PAOK and 88:100 at Bahçeşehir on Tuesday. Unicaja lost their first two league games by small margins, 87:89 at Real Madrid and 75:80 at home to La Laguna Tenerife, then beat MoraBanc Andorra 92:84 last Saturday. They have won four of their last five visits to the Nou Congost, according to the ACB.
Season so farMANUNI
Wins and losses.0-31-2
Points scored per game in these games.270254
Points allowed per game in these games.328253
Last seasonMANUNI
Wins and losses.16-1817-17
League position109
Point difference-148+22

Liga Endesa 2026-27 and 2025-26 · acb.com standings; 2025-26 regular season table

No. 05 · Injury reportExpected

Manresa vs Unicaja injury report

Allen and Villar doubtful for Manresa; Unicaja still without three.

Manresa
  • QuestionableTimmy AllenDoubtful in the ACB preview of round 4
  • QuestionableRafa VillarDoubtful in the ACB preview of round 4
Unicaja
  • OutTyson PérezLeft Achilles tendon surgery
  • OutYannick NzosaRuled out in the ACB preview of round 4
  • OutAlberto DíazRuled out in the ACB preview of round 4
  • ProbableTyler KalinoskiNot at 100%, but trained all week (coach Txus Vidorreta)
TacticsThe ACB preview of round 4 lists Timmy Allen and Rafa Villar as doubts for Manresa. Allen is the league's top scorer at 20.5 points a game, so his status decides how much attack Manresa have. Unicaja coach Txus Vidorreta is without Tyson Pérez (Achilles surgery), Yannick Nzosa and Alberto Díaz, who also missed the win over Andorra; Tyler Kalinoski is not at 100% but trained all week. Manresa played in Istanbul on Tuesday and have had three full days to recover, while Unicaja have not played since last Saturday. We did not find a second source for team news; the ACB preview is the league's own.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Manresa vs Unicaja?

The one preview we found picks Manresa, against the line.

SourcePickVersus us
SportsgamblerManresa +3.5, predicted score 94:93 to ManresaOther side
Our positionWe see it differently from Sportsgambler. The line gives Unicaja about 63% once the margin is removed, and our own rating has them about three points better on this court, close to the line. Manresa have allowed 109.3 points a game, and Unicaja have the deeper roster even without three players, so we pick Unicaja to win, by a small margin.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Manresa vs Unicaja predicted score

Unicaja's depth against the league's weakest defence.

86:90 to Unicaja is our main score: Manresa keep it close for three quarters at home, and Unicaja's depth decides the fourth. Opponents have shot 59.3% inside the arc against Manresa, the worst figure in the league. 94:91 to Manresa is the alternative if Allen plays and Manresa push the pace, as in their EuroCup win over Ulm. Unicaja to win comes in with any Unicaja win, overtime included.

Predicted score
86:90
Alternative
94:91
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Manresa vs Unicaja pick: Unicaja win

Unicaja win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Manresa have allowed 109.3 points a game and let opponents shoot 59.3% on two-pointers, the worst figures in the league. Unicaja are short-handed but deeper, and they have won four of their last five visits to the Nou Congost. We expect Unicaja to win by around four.

Our probability58–62%
Our pickUnicaja win
Odds1.49
Main scenario86:90
Our scenario
86:90alternative 94:91

What would change our mind Allen and Villar both cleared to play, plus another Unicaja absence, would make us switch the pick to Manresa +3.5.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Manresa win2.4940.2%
Unicaja win1.4967.1%

Odds snapshot 17 OCT 05:45 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why our pick could go wrong.

  1. Unicaja are 1-2 in the league and miss three rotation players.
  2. Sportsgambler picks Manresa at home, 94:93.
  3. If Allen and Villar play, Manresa have their full attack back.
  4. Three league games are a thin guide to either team.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Unicaja win at 1.49 · analysis only. We expect 86:90, but Unicaja travel without three rotation players and Allen's status is open, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Unicaja win
Odds
1.49
Published
17 OCT 07:17
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Unicaja win, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
86:90Unicaja win at 1.49
Happened
72:84Unicaja win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

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FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.