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Basketball · Spain · Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 4 · Madrid
Real MadridvsBilbao Real Madrid vs Surne Bilbao · basketball prediction
Score
119:84
Date · UK
18 OCT
Local time
12:30 · 18 OCT
City
Madrid
Status
Full time
RMB119:84BILFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Real Madrid vs Bilbao?
Our Real Madrid vs Surne Bilbao prediction: Real Madrid win at the Movistar Arena and cover the -7.5 handicap, with 94:84 as our main score. Real are 3-0 in the Liga Endesa with a +15.3 points difference a game and have beaten Bilbao twelve times in a row in Madrid, according to the ACB. They are without Gabriel Deck and Usman Garuba and played two EuroLeague games this week, so we keep this as analysis only.
- Predicted score · alt 90:85
- 94:84
- Our estimate
- 52–56%
- Market
- Real Madrid −7.5
- Price now
- 1.45
Real Madrid vs Bilbao at a glance
| Match | Real Madrid vs Surne Bilbao |
|---|---|
| Competition | Liga Endesa · Regular season, round 4 |
| Kick-off | 18 OCT · 11:30 UK |
| Venue | Movistar Arena, Madrid |
| Our pick | Real Madrid −7.5 · 1.45 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 52–56% |
| Predicted score | 94:84 |
| Main reason | Real have won twelve straight home games against Bilbao and started the season 3-0 with a +15 margin a game. |
No. 04 · Form
Real Madrid vs Bilbao: recent form
Real Madrid 5-0 in their last 5. Bilbao 2-1.
- Real Madrid
- EuroLeague win over ASVEL on Thu 15 Oct · two EuroLeague games this week, two full days' rest
- Bilbao
- Last league game at home to San Pablo Burgos on Sun 11 Oct
Real Madrid5-0
- Winvs ASVEL111:92
- Winvs Olimpia Milano98:89
- Winvs Kids&Us Manresa120:83
- Win in overtime or shootoutvs Obradoiro114:107 OT
- Winvs Unicaja89:87
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 106.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 91.6
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 198.0
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +14.8
Bilbao2-1
- Winvs San Pablo Burgos96:87
- Loss in overtime or shootoutvs Leyma Coruña101:104 OT
- Winvs Kids&Us Manresa107:92
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 101.3
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 94.3
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 195.7
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +7.0
Key factReal Madrid opened the league 89:87 against Unicaja, won 114:107 in overtime at Obradoiro and beat Kids&Us Manresa 120:83, 323 points scored and 277 allowed in three games. In the EuroLeague they won 98:89 in Milan on Tuesday and 111:92 against ASVEL on Thursday. Surne Bilbao are 2-1: 107:92 against Manresa, a 101:104 overtime defeat in A Coruña and 96:87 against San Pablo Burgos last Sunday. Last season Real topped the regular season at 26-8 and Bilbao finished seventh at 19-15, although Bilbao beat Real 88:82 at home in May, with Walter Tavares and Alex Len missing for Madrid.
| Season so far | RMB | BIL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Points scored per game in these games. | 323 | 304 |
| Points allowed per game in these games. | 277 | 283 |
| Last season | RMB | BIL |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 26-8 | 19-15 |
| League position | 1 | 7 |
| Point difference per game | +7.5 | -1.2 |
Liga Endesa 2026-27 and 2025-26 · acb.com results; 2025-26 regular season table
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Real Madrid vs Bilbao injury report
Deck and Garuba out for Real; Aleix Font a doubt for Bilbao.
Real Madrid
- OutGabriel DeckLeft shoulder instability, surgery in the coming days (ACB preview of round 4)
- OutUsman GarubaRuled out in the ACB preview of round 4
Bilbao
- QuestionableAleix FontVirus (ACB preview of round 4)
TacticsThe ACB preview of round 4 rules out Gabriel Deck, who has left shoulder instability and faces surgery in the coming days, and Usman Garuba. Neither is Real's main ball handler, and both absences were public before the line was set, so they shorten the forward rotation rather than change the matchup. Sergio Llull is set for his 700th Liga Endesa game. For Bilbao, Aleix Font is a doubt with a virus. We found no second source for team news beyond the official league preview, so treat the lists as expected, not confirmed.
In the news
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Real Madrid vs Bilbao predicted score
Real's pace and depth against a Bilbao side that runs with them.
94:84 is our main score: both teams play fast, Bilbao stay in touch for a half and Real's deeper bench pulls away in the third quarter. 90:85 is the alternative if Bilbao shoot well from three and Real, short of Deck on the wing, slow down after two EuroLeague games in three days. Real -7.5 needs a Real win by eight or more, overtime included; our main score covers it, the alternative does not.
- Predicted score
- 94:84
- Alternative
- 90:85
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Real Madrid vs Bilbao pick: Real Madrid −7.5
Real Madrid −7.5: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Real have won twelve straight home games against Bilbao and started the season 3-0 with a +15 margin a game. Bilbao like to run, and a fast game suits the deeper roster. Even without Deck and Garuba, Real can rotate ten players. We expect Real to win by about ten.
Our probability52–56%
Our pickReal Madrid −7.5
Odds1.45
Main scenario94:84
- Wins with
- 94:84100:84102:88100:8088:7698:74…
- Loses with
- 88:8284:8490:94…
- Our scenario
- 94:84alternative 90:85
What would change our mind Another Real absence in the rotation before tip-off would make us drop the handicap and keep only a Real win.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid win | 1.14 | 87.7% |
| Bilbao win | 5.04 | 19.8% |
| Real Madrid −7.5 | 1.45 | 69% |
Odds snapshot 18 OCT 05:40 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why our pick could go wrong.
- Real played EuroLeague games on Tuesday and Thursday and have only two full days' rest.
- Bilbao beat Real 88:82 in May and have scored 101 points a game this season.
- Our rating sees Real 2.3 points less dominant than the line does.
- Three league games are a thin guide to either team.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: Real Madrid −7.5 at 1.45 · analysis only. We expect 94:84, but Real come off two EuroLeague games in three days without Deck and Garuba, so we are not sure enough of the margin to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Real Madrid −7.5, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 94:84Real Madrid −7.5 at 1.45
- Happened
- 119:84Real Madrid win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
- Real MadridReal Madrid vs Manresa prediction, 11 October
- BilbaoBilbao vs Burgos prediction, 11 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.