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Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 · Manchester
Man CityvsPSG Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain · prediction
Score
2:4
Date
14 OCT
City
Manchester
Status
Full time
MCI2:4PSGFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Man City vs PSG?
Our Manchester City vs PSG prediction is both teams to score, most likely 2:1 to City. Enzo Maresca's City have won eight games in a row in all competitions (Sports Mole), but Luis Enrique's Paris Saint-Germain are unbeaten in their last 11 Champions League games (Opta Analyst) and have scored in nine of their last ten. The prices make City favourites at only 45%. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 2:2
- 2:1
- Our estimate
- 60–65%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.40
Man City vs PSG at a glance
| Match | Manchester City vs Paris Saint-Germain |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 2 |
| Kick-off | 14 OCT · 20:00 UK · 20:00 Manchester |
| Venue | Etihad Stadium, Manchester |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.40 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 60–65% |
| Predicted score | 2:1 |
| Main reason | We think this is a game with goals at both ends rather than a clean City win. |
No. 04 · Form
Man City vs PSG: recent form
Man City 15 from 15. PSG 12 from 15.
Man City15 pts
- Winvs Liverpool3:0
- Winvs Sunderland5:3
- Winvs Norwich City5:0
- Winvs Manchester United1:0
- Winvs FC Porto2:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.60
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
PSG12 pts
- Winvs Le Mans3:1
- Winvs Marseille2:1
- Winvs Brest1:0
- Winvs Slovan Bratislava6:1
- Lossvs AS Monaco1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factCity won 3:0 at Liverpool on Sunday after 5:3 against Sunderland, 5:0 against Norwich in the cup, 1:0 at Manchester United and 2:0 at Porto on matchday 1: five wins, 16 goals scored. They have 18 points from six Premier League games, but 6.3 more than their expected points (Understat). PSG beat Le Mans 3:1 on Saturday, won 2:1 in Marseille and 1:0 in Brest, and opened their Champions League campaign 6:1 against Slovan Bratislava. Over the last ten games both teams scored in four of City's and eight of PSG's, and City kept five clean sheets.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Man City vs PSG team news
City have a full squad with Foden back; PSG wait on Mayulu.
Man City
No absences reported.
PSG
- DoubtSenny MayuluMuscle problem, sources differ: out or to be assessed
TacticsSports Mole lists no absentees for City, and The False 9 says Haaland, Semenyo and O'Reilly are over minor knocks. Phil Foden has served his three-match Premier League ban and is available (both sources). Sports Mole expects Donnarumma in goal, Anderson and Fernández in midfield and Semenyo, Cherki and Doku behind Haaland; The False 9 has Foden and O'Reilly instead of Doku and Gvardiol. For PSG, Senny Mayulu is out with a muscle injury according to The False 9 and will be assessed after a dead leg according to Sports Mole. Dembélé and Nuno Mendes were rested against Le Mans and should start, with Kvaratskhelia, Vitinha and Hakimi.
In the news
PSG have missed 9 of their last 19 penalties. Barcelona come on Tuesday
Our take PSG need one name, not nine
Report: PSG had a deal and a voice note from Cherki. On Wednesday he faces them for City
Our take Cherki was bad luck. Bouaddi was a choice
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 4
Who do others back in Man City vs PSG?
Every preview we read expects goals at both ends; few back a winner.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Opta Analyst | City 44.1%, draw 23.9%, PSG 32.0% |
| Kickoff.co.uk | City 45%, both teams to score 68% |
| Sports Mole | 2:2 |
| CBS Sports | Five experts: 1:3, 2:2, 2:2, 2:1, 3:3 |
Our positionAll five CBS experts, Sports Mole and the Kickoff.co.uk model see both teams scoring, while only one human pick of six has City winning. We agree on the goals and take City's home form for the score.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Man City vs PSG predicted score
City score at home, PSG answer through Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia.
City have scored 16 goals in their last five games, and Haaland with Foden or Cherki should find chances at the Etihad. PSG take more of the ball (69% of the shots in their last ten games) and put 7.4 shots a game on target against 3.2 conceded, so a goal through Dembélé or Kvaratskhelia is likely. 2:1 is our main score; 2:2 is the alternative if City's finishing, well above their shots on target over ten games, cools. Both teams to score wins with 2:1, 1:1, 2:2, 1:2, 3:1 or 3:2 and loses with 1:0, 2:0, 3:0, 0:1, 0:2 or 0:0.
- Predicted score
- 2:1
- Alternative
- 2:2
Your score
MCI
PSG
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Man City vs PSG pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think this is a game with goals at both ends rather than a clean City win. City have won eight in a row and score freely at home, but PSG have failed to score only once in their last ten games and put twice as many shots on target as their opponents. Opta gives City 44% and three of the five CBS experts see a draw, so we do not pick the winner. Our score is 2:1, and both teams to score holds with 2:1, 2:2 and 1:1.
Our probability60–65%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.40
Main scenario2:1
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 2:1alternative 2:2
What would change our mind A PSG line-up without both Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia, rested before Saturday's trip to Strasbourg: then 1:0 or 2:0 to City becomes our main score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Man City win | 2.11 | 47.4% |
| Draw | 3.94 | 25.4% |
| PSG win | 2.99 | 33.4% |
| Man City or draw | 1.36 | 73.5% |
| PSG or draw | 1.67 | 59.9% |
| Both teams to score | 1.40 | 71.4% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.44 | 69.4% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.75 | 36.4% |
Odds snapshot 14 OCT 05:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why PSG might not score.
- City kept five clean sheets in their last ten games, including 3:0 at Anfield and 2:0 in Porto.
- City allow only 3.6 shots on target a game over their last ten.
- PSG's line-up is not settled: Mayulu's fitness and two places in the back line and attack differ between Sports Mole and The False 9.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: both teams to score · analysis only. We expect 2:1, but City keep clean sheets in half their games and neither side is a clear favourite, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:1Both teams to score at 1.40
- Happened
- 2:4PSG win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.