Demirovic is "still boiling" after Hamburg. Stuttgart: 6 from 6 in Europe, 13th in Germany
Our take Stuttgart need Demirovic's finishing, not his anger
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Stuttgart
StuttgartvsAtlético VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid · prediction
Score
1:1
Date
20 OCT
City
Stuttgart
Status
Full time
STU1:1ATMFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win Stuttgart vs Atlético?
Our Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid prediction is both teams to score, most likely 1:2 to Atlético, at the MHPArena on Tuesday (21:00 in Stuttgart, 20:00 UK). Sebastian Hoeness's VfB Stuttgart have won both Champions League games, 3:1 against Viking and 3:0 at Slovan Bratislava, but sit 13th in the Bundesliga after three defeats in four league games. Diego Simeone's Atlético are second in LaLiga and have won six in a row, but play without Koke. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 0:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 63–67%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.43
Stuttgart vs Atlético at a glance
| Match | VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 20 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Stuttgart |
| Venue | MHPArena, Stuttgart |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.43 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 63–67% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | Stuttgart scored six goals in two Champions League games and shoot a lot at home, so we do not expect them to draw a blank. |
No. 04 · Form
Stuttgart vs Atlético: recent form
Stuttgart 6 from 15. Atlético 15 from 15.
Stuttgart6 pts
- Lossvs Hamburger SV0:1
- Winvs Slovan Bratislava3:0
- Winvs SC Paderborn2:0
- Lossvs Borussia Dortmund0:1
- Lossvs Hoffenheim1:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 20%
Atlético15 pts
- Winvs Espanyol1:0
- Winvs Manchester United2:0
- Winvs Alavés2:1
- Winvs Real Madrid2:1
- Winvs Osasuna4:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.20
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 60%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
Key factStuttgart lost 0:1 at Hamburger SV on Saturday, after 3:0 at Slovan Bratislava, 2:0 at Paderborn, 0:1 at home to Borussia Dortmund and 1:2 at Hoffenheim. They are 13th in the Bundesliga with six points from six games (8 goals for, 10 against) and give away 2.63 expected goals a game in the league (Understat). Atlético won 1:0 at Espanyol on Saturday with a goal in the 89th minute (The Stats Zone), after 2:0 against Manchester United, 2:1 at Alavés, 2:1 against Real Madrid and 4:0 against Osasuna; they are second in LaLiga with 22 points (19:8). In the Champions League table (UEFA) Stuttgart are fourth with six points and Atlético 15th with three, after a 1:2 defeat at Liverpool. Both teams scored in four of Stuttgart's last ten games and five of Atlético's.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Stuttgart vs Atlético team news
Atlético without Koke and Cristian Romero; Stuttgart without Al-Dakhil and Diehl.
Stuttgart
- OutAmeen Al-DakhilKnee injury
- OutJustin DiehlThigh injury
- DoubtDan-Axel ZagadouSources differ: doubtful or out
- DoubtTiago TomásSources differ: doubtful or out
Atlético
- OutKokeHamstring injury
- OutCristian RomeroAdductor injury
- DoubtJohnny CardosoIllness, sources differ
TacticsKoke (hamstring) is out for Atlético, according to Sports Mole, The Stats Zone and Afrik-foot, and Cristian Romero (adductor) is out according to Sports Mole and Afrik-foot. Reports differ on Johnny Cardoso, who has been ill: Sports Mole expects him to play, The Stats Zone calls him a doubt and Afrik-foot has him out. Stuttgart are without Ameen Al-Dakhil (knee) and Justin Diehl (thigh), both confirmed by Sports Mole and The Stats Zone; Dan-Axel Zagadou and Tiago Tomás are doubts or out, depending on the source. Sports Mole expects Ermedin Demirović to lead Stuttgart's attack with Undav and Führich, and Julián Álvarez to start up front for Atlético. Serdar Gözübüyük of the Netherlands referees (UEFA).
In the news
Report: Julián Álvarez cuts the agent behind his Barça summer, and Atlético should worry
Our take A new agent means a new exit plan
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Stuttgart vs Atlético?
The previews agree: Atlético win, Stuttgart score.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Stuttgart 1:2 Atlético |
| Afrik-foot | Stuttgart 1:2 Atlético |
Our positionBoth previews with a score have 1:2 to Atlético, and The Stats Zone picks both teams to score without a score. We see the same game. We do not call the winner: Atlético are away favourites, but Sports Mole counts only one win in their last six Champions League away games.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Stuttgart vs Atlético predicted score
Stuttgart press and create; Atlético hit back through Álvarez.
Stuttgart took 17.2 shots a game over their last five and scored six goals in two Champions League games, so they will have chances at home. They also concede 2.63 expected goals a game in the Bundesliga, and Atlético are dangerous on the break with Álvarez. 1:2 is our main score; 0:1 is the case that beats us, if Atlético score and close the game as they did at Espanyol. Both teams to score wins with 1:2, 1:1, 2:1 or 2:2 and loses with 0:1, 0:2, 1:0 or 0:0.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 0:1
Your score
STU
ATM
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Stuttgart vs Atlético pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Stuttgart scored six goals in two Champions League games and shoot a lot at home, so we do not expect them to draw a blank. Atlético are the stronger, steadier side right now, but Stuttgart give away plenty of chances, and Álvarez should find one. Our score is 1:2: Atlético take the points and Stuttgart get their goal.
Our probability63–67%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.43
Main scenario1:2
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 0:1
What would change our mind If Demirović is not in Stuttgart's starting line-up, we would drop both teams to score and keep only the score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart win | 3.18 | 31.4% |
| Draw | 3.79 | 26.4% |
| Atlético win | 2.08 | 48.1% |
| Stuttgart or draw | 1.73 | 57.8% |
| Atlético or draw | 1.34 | 74.6% |
| Both teams to score | 1.43 | 69.9% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.75 | 36.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 2.15 | 46.5% |
| Under 3.5 goals | 1.71 | 58.5% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 06:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could fail to score.
- Atlético kept a clean sheet in four of their last six games (Sports Mole) and concede only 1.11 expected goals a game in LaLiga.
- Stuttgart failed to score in three of their last ten games, including 0:1 against Hamburger SV and Borussia Dortmund.
- Atlético can shut a game down after 1:0, as they did at Espanyol on Saturday.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: both teams to score at 1.43 · analysis only. We expect 1:2, but Atlético are away favourites with one win in their last six Champions League away games (Sports Mole), so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Both teams to score, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Both teams to score at 1.43
- Happened
- 1:1Draw
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
Read next
- Same nightPSG vs Barcelona prediction
- Same nightLiverpool vs Villarreal prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.