Flick benched Rodri for the Clásico. Barcelona conceded twice in five minutes in Paris
Our take Rodri was not what Barcelona missed in Paris
Football · Europe · Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 · Paris
PSGvsBarcelona Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Barcelona · prediction
Score
4:2
Date
20 OCT
City
Paris
Status
Full time
PSG4:2BARFull time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis
Who will win PSG vs Barcelona?
Our PSG vs Barcelona prediction is a 2:2 draw with under 4.5 goals at the Parc des Princes on Tuesday (21:00 in Paris, 20:00 UK). Hansi Flick's Barcelona have won all 11 games this season and scored 48 goals (ESPN), and Luis Enrique's Paris Saint-Germain have won six in a row; both have six points from two Champions League games. Barcelona are without Jules Koundé, Andreas Christensen and Eric García, PSG without Nuno Mendes. The prices split the two teams evenly. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 3:2
- 2:2
- Our estimate
- 53–57%
- Market
- Under 4.5 goals
- Price now
- 1.74
PSG vs Barcelona at a glance
| Match | Paris Saint-Germain vs FC Barcelona |
|---|---|
| Competition | UEFA Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 |
| Kick-off | 20 OCT · 20:00 UK · 21:00 Paris |
| Venue | Parc des Princes, Paris |
| Our pick | Under 4.5 goals · 1.74 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 53–57% |
| Predicted score | 2:2 |
| Main reason | We see two teams with the same idea, and that makes the game more careful than the forecasts of 4:3 suggest. |
No. 04 · Form
PSG vs Barcelona: recent form
PSG 15 from 15. Barcelona 15 from 15.
PSG15 pts
- Winvs Strasbourg3:1
- Winvs Manchester City4:2
- Winvs Le Mans3:1
- Winvs Marseille2:1
- Winvs Brest1:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 2.60
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.00
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Barcelona15 pts
- Winvs Real Betis5:2
- Winvs Galatasaray4:1
- Winvs Getafe3:0
- Winvs Sevilla3:1
- Winvs Racing Santander7:2
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 4.40
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 100%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
Key factPSG won 3:1 at Strasbourg on Saturday, 4:2 at Manchester City in the Champions League, 3:1 against Le Mans, 2:1 at Marseille and 1:0 at Brest: six wins in a row since a 1:2 home defeat to Monaco on 4 September. They are second in Ligue 1 with 14 points from seven games. Barcelona won 5:2 at Real Betis on Saturday, 4:1 at Galatasaray, 3:0 against Getafe, 3:1 at Sevilla and 7:2 against Racing Santander; they top LaLiga with 27 points from nine games and have won their last ten, scoring 43 and conceding 11. Both teams scored in eight of PSG's last ten games and seven of Barcelona's. PSG have ten goals from two Champions League games and Barcelona nine (UEFA), and PSG won 2:1 in Barcelona in last season's league phase.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
PSG vs Barcelona team news
Barcelona without Koundé and two centre-backs; PSG without Nuno Mendes.
PSG
- OutNuno MendesThigh injury
- DoubtSenny MayuluDoubtful
Barcelona
- OutJules KoundéAnkle injury
- OutAndreas ChristensenInjured
- OutEric GarcíaInjured
- OutRoony BardghjiKnee ligament injury
- DoubtGerard MartínKnock
TacticsJules Koundé (ankle), Andreas Christensen and Eric García are out for Barcelona (ESPN, Sports Mole), and Roony Bardghji has a knee ligament injury (Sports Mole, SI). Flick said Pau Cubarsí is the only centre-back he can count on; Gerard Martín is a doubt after a knock (ESPN, Sports Mole), and the options beside Cubarsí include Frenkie de Jong and Alex Campos from the reserve team. Raphinha is back from a hamstring injury and could start (ESPN). PSG are without Nuno Mendes (thigh; ESPN, Sports Mole), so Lucas Digne is expected at left-back. Sports Mole expects Safonov in goal behind Hakimi, Marquinhos, Pacho and Digne, with Ruiz, Vitinha and Neves in midfield and Doué, Dembélé and Kvaratskhelia up front. Michael Oliver of England referees, with Marco Di Bello on VAR (UEFA).
In the news
Pellegrini blamed Lamine Yamal. Hours later, Bernal blamed himself
Our take Barça would have won this 11 v 11
PSG have missed 9 of their last 19 penalties. Barcelona come on Tuesday
Our take PSG need one name, not nine
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 3
Who do others back in PSG vs Barcelona?
Every score we found has goals at both ends.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| SI | PSG 4:3 Barcelona |
| Everything Barca | 2:2 |
| Barca Blaugranes | 3:3 |
Our positionThe three scores we found are 4:3, 2:2 and 3:3, so nobody expects a tight game. We agree that both teams score but stop at four goals, with the same 2:2 as Everything Barca. On the winner the sources split, and so do the prices.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
PSG vs Barcelona predicted score
PSG keep the ball; Barcelona break through Lamine Yamal.
Luis Enrique said his plan is to keep the ball away from Barcelona (ESPN), so PSG should press a makeshift Barcelona defence for long spells. Barcelona answer on the break, with Lamine Yamal, who has nine goals and ten assists this season (ESPN), running at Digne. Both teams want the ball, which tends to slow a game more than the predictions of 4:3 suggest. 2:2 is our main score and 3:2 the case that beats us. Under 4.5 goals wins with 2:2, 2:1, 1:2, 3:1 or 1:1 and loses with 3:2, 2:3, 3:3 or 4:1.
- Predicted score
- 2:2
- Alternative
- 3:2
Your score
PSG
BAR
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our PSG vs Barcelona pick: Under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We see two teams with the same idea, and that makes the game more careful than the forecasts of 4:3 suggest. PSG have 14 Ligue 1 goals in seven games from 2.58 expected goals a game, so they finish fewer chances than they make, and Barcelona allowed rivals only 5.4 shots a game over their last five. Both should still score. Our score is 2:2: goals at both ends, but no fifth one.
Our probability53–57%
Our pickUnder 4.5 goals
Odds1.74
Main scenario2:2
- Wins with
- 1:01:12:12:00:00:1…
- Loses with
- 3:24:12:3…
- Our scenario
- 2:2alternative 3:2
What would change our mind A Barcelona line-up with two stand-ins at centre-back, such as de Jong and Campos, and no Gerard Martín: then we would drop under 4.5 goals and keep only the score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| PSG win | 2.41 | 41.5% |
| Draw | 4.40 | 22.7% |
| Barcelona win | 2.41 | 41.5% |
| PSG or draw | 1.56 | 64.1% |
| Barcelona or draw | 1.56 | 64.1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.20 | 83.3% |
| Both teams not to score | 4.35 | 23% |
| Over 4.5 goals | 2.11 | 47.4% |
| Under 4.5 goals | 1.74 | 57.5% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 06:22 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could be a five-goal night.
- The main goals line is 4.5 and both teams to score is priced at 1.20: the prices expect about four goals.
- Barcelona are without Christensen and Eric García at centre-back and Koundé at right-back, Gerard Martín is a doubt, and PSG scored four at Manchester City.
- Two of the three scores we found, 4:3 and 3:3, have six goals or more.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Analysis
Our pick: under 4.5 goals at 1.74 · analysis only. We expect 2:2, but either team can win and the prices expect about four goals, so we are not sure enough of the result to bet on it.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Under 4.5 goals, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 2:2Under 4.5 goals at 1.74
- Happened
- 4:2PSG win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
Analysis
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.