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Football · South America · Copa Libertadores · Semi-final, second leg · Rio de Janeiro

FlamengovsEstudiantes Flamengo vs Estudiantes de La Plata · prediction

Kick-off
21:30
Date
22 OCT
City
Rio de Janeiro
Status
Pre-lineups
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Flamengo vs Estudiantes?

Our Flamengo vs Estudiantes prediction is under 2.5 goals, most likely a 1:0 Flamengo win, in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores semi-final at the Maracanã on Thursday at 21:30 Brasília time (01:30 UK on Friday). The first leg in La Plata ended 0:0, so the winner on the night goes to the final; a draw after 90 minutes goes straight to penalties, with no extra time. The final is on 28 November at the Centenario in Montevideo against Palmeiras, who beat Fluminense on penalties on Wednesday. Leonardo Jardim's Flamengo are unbeaten in ten games with six clean sheets. Our pick covers the 90 minutes only. This is analysis only, with no bet.

Predicted score · alt 1:1
1:0
Our estimate
60–64%
Under 2.5 goals · odds 1.73Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Under 2.5 goals
Price now
1.73

Flamengo vs Estudiantes at a glance

MatchFlamengo vs Estudiantes de La Plata
CompetitionCONMEBOL Libertadores 2026 · Semi-final, second leg
Kick-off23 OCT · 01:30 UK · 21:30 Rio de Janeiro
VenueMaracanã, Rio de Janeiro
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals · 1.73 · analysis only
Our estimate60–64%
Predicted score1:0
Main reasonBoth teams build from defence: Flamengo kept six clean sheets in their last ten games and only four of those had more than two goals, while Estudiantes failed to score in three of ten.
No. 04 · Form

Flamengo vs Estudiantes: recent form

Flamengo 11 from 15. Estudiantes 5 from 15.

Flamengo11 pts
  • Winvs Bahia3:0
  • Drawvs Estudiantes de La Plata0:0
  • Winvs Fluminense1:0
  • Drawvs Santos2:2
  • Winvs Red Bull Bragantino2:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
0.60
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Estudiantes5 pts
  • Lossvs San Lorenzo1:2
  • Drawvs Flamengo0:0
  • Drawvs Central Córdoba2:2
  • Winvs Gimnasia y Esgrima (Mendoza)3:0
  • Lossvs Platense0:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
1.20
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.00
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
60%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
40%
Key factFlamengo won 3:0 at Bahia on Sunday, after the 0:0 in La Plata, 1:0 against Fluminense, 2:2 at Santos and 2:1 against Red Bull Bragantino. Over ten games they are 7-3-0 with 16 goals for and five against, six clean sheets, and only four of the ten had more than two goals. They lead the Brasileirão on 67 points with eight rounds left (Ahora). Estudiantes lost 1:2 at home to San Lorenzo on Sunday, after the 0:0 against Flamengo, 2:2 at Central Córdoba, 3:0 against Gimnasia Mendoza and a 0:1 cup defeat to Platense. They are 3-3-4 over ten games with eleven goals for and ten against, they failed to score in three of the ten, and they are tenth in Zone A of the Liga Profesional with one win in their last seven (Ahora). In La Plata, Estudiantes had the better of the game but could not beat Agustín Rossi (Gazeta Esportiva, La Nación). The teams met twice in this season's group stage: 1:1 in La Plata and 1:0 to Flamengo in Rio.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Flamengo vs Estudiantes team news

Flamengo without Danilo; Arrascaeta and Ayrton Lucas assessed on match day.

Flamengo
  • OutDaniloJaw fractures
  • OutEvertton AraújoRuled out by the coach
  • DoubtGiorgian de ArrascaetaAssessed on match day
  • DoubtAyrton LucasAssessed on match day
  • DoubtJorginhoAssessed on match day
  • DoubtSaúl ÑíguezStatus not yet decided
Estudiantes

No absences reported.

TacticsDanilo is out for at least six weeks with a broken jaw, and Jardim has said Evertton Araújo will not play (Ahora, 22 October). Giorgian de Arrascaeta, Ayrton Lucas and Jorginho are being assessed, and Saúl Ñíguez's status is still open; we found these from one source only. Ahora's expected Flamengo side: Rossi; Varela or Emerson Royal, Léo Ortiz, Léo Pereira, Alex Sandro; Pulgar, Saúl; Plata, Carrascal, Samuel Lino; Pedro. Alexander Medina's Estudiantes get Leandro González Pírez and Tomás Palacios back from suspension, and Marcos Rojo is cleared to play after a CAS ruling in the club's favour. Ahora expects Muslera in goal behind Mancuso, Santiago Núñez, González Pírez or Rojo and Tomás Palacios, with Tiago Palacios, Guido Carrillo and Joaquín Tobio Burgos in attack. Gustavo Tejera of Uruguay referees, with Antonio García on VAR.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1

Who do others back in Flamengo vs Estudiantes?

Few previews give a score; the one with a pick backs Flamengo.

SourcePick
The Stats ZoneFlamengo to win
Our positionWe agree that Flamengo go through, and Ahora calls them the main favourite for the title. We found few previews with a score, so our call on goals rests on our own reading of both teams' numbers.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Flamengo vs Estudiantes predicted score

A careful first hour, Flamengo find one goal.

At 0:0 on aggregate, neither side can afford to concede first, so we expect a cautious start. Flamengo will have more of the ball at home, but without Danilo and possibly without Arrascaeta they create less, and Estudiantes get González Pírez and Tomás Palacios back in defence. Medina's side have scored once in their last three meetings with Flamengo, and they failed to score in three of their last ten games. 1:0 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative, which would send the tie to penalties. Under 2.5 is settled on the 90 minutes and comes in with 0:0, 1:0, 0:1, 1:1, 2:0 or 0:2; 2:1 or any other score with three goals or more loses it.

Predicted score
1:0
Alternative
1:1
Your score
FLA1
EST0
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Flamengo vs Estudiantes pick: Under 2.5 goals

Under 2.5 goals: why this pick wins

Why we back it

Both teams build from defence: Flamengo kept six clean sheets in their last ten games and only four of those had more than two goals, while Estudiantes failed to score in three of ten. In a semi-final second leg at 0:0 nobody will take early risks, and the first leg showed how few clear chances this tie produces. We see Flamengo 1:0 and a final against Palmeiras in Montevideo. We keep it as analysis because a single early goal would force the game open, and we have little outside opinion to test our view.

Our probability60–64%
Our pickUnder 2.5 goals
Odds1.73
Main scenario1:0
Wins with
1:01:12:00:00:10:2…
Loses with
2:11:22:23:03:13:2…
Our scenario
1:0alternative 1:1

What would change our mind If Arrascaeta starts, we would expect a more open game and the under would be weaker.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Flamengo win1.3673.5%
Draw4.3922.8%
Estudiantes win8.8311.3%
Flamengo or draw1.0496.2%
Over 2.5 goals2.0349.3%
Under 2.5 goals1.7357.8%
Both teams to score2.4341.2%
Both teams not to score1.5066.7%

Odds snapshot 22 OCT 01:25 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

Why it could be a high-scoring night.

  1. Estudiantes were the better side in the first leg and created chances Rossi had to stop.
  2. If Estudiantes score first, Flamengo must chase the game and it opens up.
  3. Arrascaeta in the starting line-up would make Flamengo more dangerous.
  4. We found few previews with a score, so there is less outside opinion to check our view against.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: under 2.5 goals · analysis only. We expect 1:0 over 90 minutes, but one early goal could open the tie, so we are not sure enough to bet on it.

Market
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
1.73
Published
22 OCT 02:36
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · no bet
No. 12 · After the match

After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.

Read next

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.