PalmeirasvsFluminense prediction
Who will win Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
Our Palmeiras vs Fluminense prediction is a Palmeiras win, most likely 1:0, in the second leg of the Copa Libertadores semi-final in São Paulo on Wednesday at 21:30 Brasília time (01:30 UK on Thursday). Palmeiras won the first leg 2:1 at the Maracanã, so a draw takes them to the final; Fluminense need to win by two goals, and a one-goal win sends the tie to penalties. Abel Ferreira's side have won four of their last five and kept seven clean sheets in ten, while Fluminense have lost three in a row. This is analysis only, with no bet.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:0
- Our estimate
- 48–51%
- Market
- Palmeiras win
- Price now
- 1.94
Palmeiras vs Fluminense at a glance
| Match | Palmeiras vs Fluminense |
|---|---|
| Competition | CONMEBOL Libertadores 2026 · Semi-final, second leg |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 01:30 UK · 21:30 São Paulo |
| Venue | Allianz Parque, São Paulo |
| Our pick | Palmeiras win · 1.94 · analysis only |
| Our estimate | 48–51% |
| Predicted score | 1:0 |
| Main reason | Palmeiras have conceded five goals in ten games and won 2:0 at Athletico four days ago, with Sports Mole expecting the same starters tonight. |
Palmeiras vs Fluminense: recent form
Palmeiras 13 from 15. Fluminense 6 from 15.
- Winvs Athletico Paranaense2:0
- Winvs Fluminense2:1
- Winvs Corinthians4:1
- Winvs Bahia1:0
- Drawvs Grêmio0:0
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 0.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 40%
- Lossvs Santos1:2
- Lossvs Palmeiras1:2
- Lossvs Flamengo0:1
- Winvs Chapecoense4:0
- Winvs Corinthians3:1
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.20
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 60%
Palmeiras vs Fluminense team news
Palmeiras without Vitor Roque; Martinelli a doubt for Fluminense.
- OutVitor RoqueRight ankle sprain
- DoubtMartinelliLeft knee problem
- OutJohn KennedyInjured, reported by one preview
Who do others back in Palmeiras vs Fluminense?
The one preview with a score expects another Palmeiras win.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sports Mole | Palmeiras 2:1 Fluminense | Same side |
Palmeiras vs Fluminense predicted score
Fluminense must come forward, Palmeiras punish them once.
Fluminense need goals, so they will have to push with Hulk, Savarino and Canobbio, which leaves space behind them. Palmeiras defend well and can wait: Jhon Arias and Flaco López, the expected front two, are made for counter-attacks into that space. 1:0 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative, which would still take Palmeiras to the final but not win our pick. A Palmeiras win takes the pick with 1:0, 2:0, 2:1 or any other home win; a draw or a Fluminense win loses it.
- Predicted score
- 1:0
- Alternative
- 1:1
Our Palmeiras vs Fluminense pick: Palmeiras win
Palmeiras win: why this pick wins
Palmeiras have conceded five goals in ten games and won 2:0 at Athletico four days ago, with Sports Mole expecting the same starters tonight. Fluminense have lost three in a row, and across ten games they hit the target 4.3 times a game against Palmeiras's 6.1. We expect a tight, nervous game that Palmeiras settle with one goal on the way to their eighth Libertadores final. We keep it as analysis because a draw suits Palmeiras just as well, and that makes the win less certain than their form suggests.
- Our scenario
- 1:0alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If Gustavo Gómez or Giay is missing from the Palmeiras starting line-up, we would expect 1:1 rather than 1:0.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras win | 1.94 | 51.5% |
| Draw | 3.29 | 30.4% |
| Fluminense win | 3.86 | 25.9% |
| Palmeiras or draw | 1.22 | 82% |
| Fluminense or draw | 1.78 | 56.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.05 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.72 | 58.1% |
| Both teams to score | 1.89 | 52.9% |
| Both teams not to score | 1.81 | 55.2% |
Odds snapshot 21 OCT 01:38 · no bookmaker names
What could beat our pick?
Why it could end level or worse.
- A draw is enough for Palmeiras, so after an early goal or at 0:0 late on they may stop chasing a win.
- Without Vitor Roque, Palmeiras rely on Flaco López up front.
- Fluminense have scored more than their chances suggest over ten games, and Thiago Silva, Ganso and Hulk have won big games before.
- The report that Giay and Gómez are suspended has not been ruled out by an official source.
Analysis
Our pick: Palmeiras to win · analysis only. We expect 1:0, but a draw takes Palmeiras through as well, so we are not sure enough of the win to bet on it.
- Analysis published · no bet
- We said
- 1:0Palmeiras win at 1.94
- Happened
- 0:1Fluminense win
Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.
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FAQ
What does Analysis mean?
Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.