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Football · Mexico · Liga MX · Matchday 13 · Guadalajara
AtlasvsAmérica prediction
Score
2:5
Date
21 OCT
City
Guadalajara
Status
Full time
ATL2:5AMEFull time
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Atlas vs América?
Our Atlas vs América prediction is both teams to score, most likely a 1:2 win for América at Estadio Jalisco on Wednesday at 19:00 in Mexico City (02:00 UK on Thursday). Liga MX leaders América have 24 points from 11 games; Atlas are fourth on 21 and would draw level on points with a win. Atlas have scored in each of their last ten games and América conceded in eight of theirs, so we back a goal at each end as a one-unit single.
- Predicted score · alt 1:1
- 1:2
- Our estimate
- 59–62%
- Market
- Both teams to score
- Price now
- 1.56
Atlas vs América at a glance
| Match | Atlas vs América |
|---|---|
| Competition | Liga MX Apertura 2026 · Matchday 13 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 02:00 UK · 19:00 Guadalajara |
| Venue | Estadio Jalisco, Guadalajara |
| Our pick | Both teams to score · 1.56 · bet |
| Our estimate | 59–62% |
| Predicted score | 1:2 |
| Main reason | Atlas have scored in each of their last ten games, and América conceded in eight of their last ten, even while winning 5:3 at León and 4:2 at Necaxa. |
No. 04 · Form
Atlas vs América: recent form
Atlas 8 from 15. América 8 from 15.
Atlas8 pts
- Winvs Necaxa2:0
- Drawvs Guadalajara1:1
- Winvs Tijuana3:2
- Drawvs Pumas UNAM1:1
- Lossvs Toluca2:5
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 1.80
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 40%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 80%
América8 pts
- Winvs León5:3
- Drawvs Monterrey1:1
- Winvs Necaxa4:2
- Drawvs Guadalajara2:2
- Lossvs Cruz Azul3:4
- Goals scored per game in these matches.
- 3.00
- Goals conceded per game in these matches.
- 2.40
- Share of these matches with three or more goals.
- 80%
- Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
- 100%
Key factAmérica top the Apertura 2026 with 7 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeat, 27 goals for and 14 against, with a game in hand (ESPN). Atlas are fourth on 21 points: 6-3-3, 19 scored and 18 conceded. Atlas's last five: 2:0 at Necaxa, 1:1 with Chivas, 3:2 at Tijuana, 1:1 with Pumas UNAM and 2:5 at Toluca. América's: 5:3 at León, 1:1 with Monterrey, 4:2 at Necaxa, 2:2 with Chivas and 3:4 at Cruz Azul. Over their last ten games Atlas scored every time, both teams scored in eight of them and Atlas kept two clean sheets; for América both teams scored in seven, with two clean sheets. América hit the target 7.4 times a game over that run, Atlas 4.1. SI counts four América wins in the last five meetings, the last of them a 1:0 Atlas win at the Azteca in April.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected
Atlas vs América team news
Atlas without Duk; América without Veiga and Dávila.
Atlas
- OutDukPatellar tendon rupture, out for about six months
América
- OutRaphael VeigaNot fully fit after a knock
- OutVíctor DávilaCruciate ligament rupture, out for the tournament
- DoubtJosé Raúl ZúñigaKnee problem, status not confirmed
TacticsAtlas lost Duk to a ruptured patellar tendon in the left knee against Pumas, and he is expected to be out for about six months (SI, 365Scores). América coach Guillermo Almada is without Raphael Veiga, who is still not fully fit after a knock (Bolavip, 20 October), and Víctor Dávila, out for the rest of the tournament with a cruciate ligament rupture (SI). José Raúl Zúñiga has a knee problem and his status is not confirmed. Miguel Borja is back after a suspension, and Bolavip expects Ramón Juárez to return, although SI says he did not travel to the previous game. SI expects Atlas in a 4-2-2-2 with Camilo Vargas in goal and Ryan Mmaee up front, and América in a 4-2-3-1 with Malagón; Dagoberto Espinoza, Santiago Bueno, Santiago Ramos, Rossano; Erick Sánchez, Israel Reyes; Zendejas, Carlos Álvarez, Brian Rodríguez; Henry Martín. It is a midweek round: Atlas last played on Saturday, América on Sunday, and both are back in the league at home within four days, Atlas against Puebla and América against Pachuca.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 2 of 2
Who do others back in Atlas vs América?
Both previews with a score see goals at both ends and an América win.
| Source | Pick |
|---|---|
| SI | Atlas 1:2 América |
| Fox Sports México (AI forecast) | América 2:1 |
Our positionWe agree with both: América should edge it, and Atlas should score. SI's own numbers point the same way, with expected goals of 1.20 for Atlas and 1.50 for América. We stay off the winner, because América are away and a draw is a real result, and take the market that both scores share.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Atlas vs América predicted score
América push, Atlas answer on the break.
América have more of the ball and create more: 17.8 shots a game over their last ten against Atlas's 12.9. Atlas defend deep and score from few chances, as they have done in ten games in a row, and even without Duk they have Mmaee and Kevin Zenón to finish a break. 1:2 is our main score; 1:1 is the alternative, with three of each side's last ten games ending level. Both teams to score wins with 1:1, 1:2, 2:1, 2:2 or any score where both sides find the net, and loses with 0:0, 1:0, 2:0, 0:1 or 0:2.
- Predicted score
- 1:2
- Alternative
- 1:1
Your score
ATL
AME
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Atlas vs América pick: Both teams to score
Both teams to score: why this pick wins
Why we back it
Atlas have scored in each of their last ten games, and América conceded in eight of their last ten, even while winning 5:3 at León and 4:2 at Necaxa. That is what makes this market work for us: neither defence keeps clean sheets, with two each in that run. América take far more shots, so we expect them to win, but Atlas at home will find their goal on the break. Our score is 1:2, and 1:1 or 2:2 would also take the bet.
Our probability59–62%
Our pickBoth teams to score
Odds1.56
Main scenario1:2
- Wins with
- 1:12:11:22:23:13:2…
- Loses with
- 1:02:00:00:13:00:2…
- Our scenario
- 1:2alternative 1:1
What would change our mind If neither Henry Martín nor Miguel Borja starts for América, we would drop both teams to score.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Atlas win | 3.22 | 31.1% |
| Draw | 3.54 | 28.2% |
| América win | 2.03 | 49.3% |
| Atlas or draw | 1.69 | 59.2% |
| América or draw | 1.29 | 77.5% |
| Both teams to score | 1.56 | 64.1% |
| Both teams not to score | 2.26 | 44.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.68 | 59.5% |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.11 | 47.4% |
Odds snapshot 20 OCT 23:47 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why one side could fail to score.
- Both attacks are weaker tonight: Atlas without Duk, América without Veiga and Dávila.
- Atlas score more than their chances suggest, 3.6 goals above the expected number over ten games, and that kind of finishing does not last forever.
- The total-goals prices do not expect a shoot-out: over 2.5 goals is only at 1.68.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Bet Both teams to score at 1.56 as a one-unit single. It wins whenever both sides score, whoever wins the game.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Prediction published · Both teams to score at 1.56
No. 12 · After the match
- We said
- 1:2Bet at 1.56
- Happened
- 2:5América win
Won
Read next
- The betAtlas vs América: both teams to score
- Same roundPachuca vs Cruz Azul prediction
- América's last gameLeón vs América prediction
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.