ENES
Join the club
Football · Netherlands · Eredivisie · Matchday 9 · Groningen

GroningenvsAjax FC Groningen vs AFC Ajax · prediction

Score
2:5
Date
18 OCT
City
Groningen
Status
Full time
No. 01 · The short versionAnalysis

Who will win Groningen vs Ajax?

Our Groningen vs Ajax prediction: an Ajax win at the Euroborg on Sunday afternoon, most likely 1:2, with goals at both ends. Both teams scored in eight of Groningen's last ten games and nine of Ajax's, and each side kept only one clean sheet in that run. Ajax played in Split on Thursday and host Atalanta on Thursday again, while Groningen had a full week off after a 5:1 win at Excelsior. That is why this is an analysis, not a bet: we expect Ajax and goals, but the travel and the rest gap make the result less certain than the price suggests.

Predicted score · alt 2:2
1:2
Our estimate
50–54%
Ajax win · odds 1.85Our estimate, not a guarantee
Why this call18+Play responsibly
Market
Ajax win
Price now
1.85

Groningen vs Ajax at a glance

MatchFC Groningen vs AFC Ajax
CompetitionEredivisie · Matchday 9
Kick-off18 OCT · 15:45 UK · 16:45 Groningen
VenueEuroborg, Groningen
Our pickAjax win · 1.85 · analysis only
Our estimate50–54%
Predicted score1:2
Main reasonWe expect Ajax to win and both teams to score.
No. 04 · Form

Groningen vs Ajax: recent form

Groningen 8 from 15. Ajax 8 from 15.

Groningen8 pts
  • Winvs Excelsior5:1
  • Winvs PEC Zwolle3:0
  • Drawvs Go Ahead Eagles1:1
  • Drawvs Twente2:2
  • Lossvs Fortuna Sittard2:3
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.60
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
80%
Ajax8 pts
  • Lossvs Hajduk Split1:2
  • Drawvs NEC1:1
  • Drawvs Excelsior2:2
  • Winvs Willem II5:1
  • Winvs Fortuna Sittard5:1
Goals scored per game in these matches.
2.80
Goals conceded per game in these matches.
1.40
Share of these matches with three or more goals.
80%
Both teams to score: share of these matches in which both sides scored.
100%
Key factGroningen won 5:1 at Excelsior on 11 October and 3:0 against PEC Zwolle, then drew 1:1 at Go Ahead Eagles and 2:2 with Twente after a 2:3 home defeat to Fortuna Sittard. Over their last ten they are 5-2-3 with 22 goals scored and 17 conceded, and eight of those ten games had three goals or more. Ajax are 5-3-2 over their last ten with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded, and nine of those games went over 2.5 goals. Over the last five, Ajax took 24.6 shots a game and allowed 8.8, a 74% share; Groningen's share was 51%.
No. 05 · LineupsExpected

Groningen vs Ajax team news

Ajax list four injury doubts; Groningen report no new problems.

Groningen
  • FormThom van Bergen5 goals this season, one preview
Ajax
  • DoubtSteven BerghuisInjury doubt, reported by one preview
  • DoubtDaley BlindInjury doubt, reported by one preview
  • DoubtCaio HenriqueInjury doubt, reported by one preview
  • DoubtKasper DolbergInjury doubt, reported by one preview
Tacticsfootballpredictions.com lists Steven Berghuis, Daley Blind, Caio Henrique and Kasper Dolberg as injury doubts for Ajax and reports no new injuries for Groningen. We found these only in one preview, so they are unconfirmed. Thom van Bergen is Groningen's main threat with five goals this season, according to the same preview. Ajax lost 1:2 at Hajduk Split on Thursday, so they arrive with three days of rest against Groningen's seven, and they play Atalanta in Amsterdam on 22 October. Official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 2

Who do others back in Groningen vs Ajax?

One preview sees a 2:2, one model favours Ajax.

SourcePickVersus us
footballpredictions.com2:2, both teams to score and over 2.5 goalsOther side
Foresportia (model)Ajax 54.4%Same side
Our positionWe side with the model on the winner and with footballpredictions.com on the goals: our main score is 1:2, with 2:2 the alternative. The goals market fits our read best, but its price is below the 1.40 we set for an analysis pick, so our pick is the Ajax win.
No. 07 · Scenario & score

Groningen vs Ajax predicted score

Ajax have the ball, Groningen get a goal.

Ajax dominate the shots in almost every game and should have most of the ball in Groningen. Groningen score at home and Ajax have conceded in nine of their last ten, so we expect a goal at both ends. Our main score is 1:2, the alternative 2:2. Our pick wins with any Ajax win and loses with a draw or a Groningen win.

Predicted score
1:2
Alternative
2:2
Your score
GRO1
AJA2
No. 08 · Why this pick wins

Our Groningen vs Ajax pick: Ajax win

Ajax win: why this pick wins

Why we back it

We expect Ajax to win and both teams to score. Ajax took about three of every four shots in their last five games, but they also concede in almost every match, and Groningen arrive rested and in form at home. A 1:2 fits both trends. The rest gap and the Thursday trip are why we keep this as an analysis rather than a bet.

Our probability50–54%
Our pickAjax win
Odds1.85
Main scenario1:2
Our scenario
1:2alternative 2:2

What would change our mind If Berghuis, Dolberg and Blind are all missing from the Ajax line-up, we would switch our pick to Groningen or draw.

Odds and break-even, for reference
MarketOddsBreak-even
Groningen win3.4628.9%
Draw4.0824.5%
Ajax win1.8554.1%
Ajax or draw1.2778.7%
Over 2.5 goals1.3673.5%
Under 2.5 goals2.9034.5%
Both teams to score1.3574.1%
Both teams not to score2.9334.1%

Odds snapshot 18 OCT 06:20 · no bookmaker names

No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves

What could beat our pick?

How Groningen could get something.

  1. Ajax had three days of rest against Groningen's seven and travelled back from Split.
  2. Ajax drew two of their last three league games, 1:1 with NEC and 2:2 with Excelsior.
  3. Four Ajax players are listed as doubts; if Berghuis and Dolberg miss out, Ajax lose much of their creativity up front.
No. 10 · Editor’s call

Analysis

Our pick: Ajax win at 1.85 · analysis only. We expect 1:2 with goals at both ends, but Ajax's short rest makes us not sure enough of the result to bet on it.

Market
Ajax win
Odds
1.85
Published
18 OCT 07:22
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
  1. Analysis published · our pick Ajax win, no bet
No. 12 · After the match
We said
1:2Ajax win at 1.85
Happened
2:5Ajax win

Analysis only, no bet: this match doesn’t count towards ROI.

Analysis

Read next

FAQ

What does Analysis mean?

Our full analysis of the match and the result we expect, without a bet.

How do you choose a pick?

We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.

Can a prediction change after publishing?

No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.