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Basketball · Europe · EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7 · Belgrade
Maccabi Tel AvivvsReal Madrid Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid · basketball prediction
Tip-off · UK
19:05
Date · UK
22 OCT
Local time
20:05 · 22 OCT
City
Belgrade
Status
Pre-match
MTA20:05RMBPre-match
No. 01 · The short versionBet
Who will win Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid?
Our Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid prediction for round 7 of the EuroLeague: Real Madrid win in Belgrade, where Maccabi play their home games this season, and our main score is 82:88, overtime included. Real are 3-3 and have won three in a row; Maccabi are 2-4 and have just lost Iffe Lundberg, their third man by minutes, for six to eight weeks. The line gives Real 62.7%. Real Madrid to win is our bet.
- Predicted score · alt 82:84
- 82:88
- Our estimate
- 60–66%
- Market
- Real Madrid win
- Price now
- 1.51
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid at a glance
| Match | Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid |
|---|---|
| Competition | EuroLeague · Regular season, round 7 |
| Kick-off | 22 OCT · 19:05 UK |
| Venue | Aleksandar Nikolić Hall, Belgrade |
| Our pick | Real Madrid win · 1.51 · bet |
| Our estimate | 60–66% |
| Predicted score | 82:88 |
| Main reason | We think Real Madrid win. |
No. 04 · Form
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid: recent form
Maccabi Tel Aviv 2-3 in their last 5. Real Madrid 3-2.
- Maccabi Tel Aviv
- Won 91:88 at Valencia on Thu 15 Oct · seven days since the last EuroLeague game · home games in Belgrade this season
- Real Madrid
- Beat ASVEL 111:92 at home on Thu 15 Oct · seven days since the last EuroLeague game · 2,027 km trip from Madrid
Maccabi Tel Aviv2-3
- Winvs Valencia91:88
- Lossvs Barcelona87:90
- Winvs Olimpia Milano97:79
- Lossvs Panathinaikos67:90
- Lossvs Beşiktaş93:109
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 87.0
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 91.2
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 178.2
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- −4.2
Real Madrid3-2
- Winvs ASVEL111:92
- Winvs Olimpia Milano98:89
- Winvs Partizan86:76
- Lossvs Hapoel Tel Aviv98:102
- Lossvs Anadolu Efes84:94
- Points scored per game in these games.
- 95.4
- Points allowed per game in these games.
- 90.6
- Average combined score of both teams: a guide for over/under totals.
- 186.0
- Average points difference. Plus means they win by that much on average, minus that they lose by it.
- +4.8
Key factReal Madrid lost their first three games, 77:78 in Dubai, 84:94 at Anadolu Efes and 98:102 to Hapoel, then won three in a row: 86:76 against Partizan, 98:89 at Olimpia Milano and 111:92 against ASVEL. Maccabi have beaten Olimpia Milano 97:79 and won 91:88 at Valencia last week, but lost 67:90 at Panathinaikos and 93:109 to Beşiktaş in Belgrade. Last season Real went 24-14 and Maccabi 18-20; exactly a year ago, in the same hall, Maccabi beat Real 92:91.
| EuroLeague so far | MTA | RMB |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Points for per game | 84.8 | 92.3 |
| Points against per game | 90.0 | 88.5 |
| Point difference per game | -5.2 | +3.8 |
| Last season | MTA | RMB |
|---|---|---|
| Wins and losses. | 18-20 | 24-14 |
| Points for per game | 90.1 | 87.9 |
| Points against per game | 92.7 | 83.1 |
| Point difference per game | -2.5 | +4.9 |
EuroLeague 2026-27, 6 games each · Our estimates from official EuroLeague box scores
No. 05 · Injury reportExpected
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid injury report
Maccabi lose Lundberg; Real at full strength as far as we know.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
- OutIffe LundbergInjury, out for 6 to 8 weeks
Real Madrid
No absences reported.
TacticsIffe Lundberg will be out for six to eight weeks (Eurohoops, 20 Oct). He played 23 minutes a game, third in Maccabi's rotation, so more falls on Yam Madar (4.5 assists a game), Jaylen Hoard, O'Shae Brissett and Jimmy Clark III. We found no injury news for Real Madrid: Theo Maledon (5.8 assists and 21.5 PIR a game), Walter Tavares, Facundo Campazzo, Andrés Feliz and Mikael Jantunen have carried the rotation. No official report for round 7 had been published when we checked, so neither side is confirmed.
In the news
No. 06 · What others predictConsensus 1 of 1
Who do others back in Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid?
The preview we found has Real by seven.
| Source | Pick | Versus us |
|---|---|---|
| Sportsgambler | Real Madrid 92:85; their best bet is Real −3.5 | Same side |
Our positionWe agree on the winner and expect a smaller margin, six points. Our rating says Real by 1.7 if Maccabi get a full home advantage, and by 5.5 on a neutral court; a Maccabi home game in Belgrade sits between the two, and the line, at Real 62.7%, sits there too.
No. 07 · Scenario & score
Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid predicted score
Tavares inside, Maledon running the game.
82:88 to Real Madrid is our main score: Walter Tavares controls the paint, Maledon and Campazzo run the game, and Maccabi, without Lundberg, run short of shooting late on. 82:84 to Real is the alternative: Madar and Hoard keep Maccabi level until the final minutes and Real win a close one. The way Maccabi win is the 92:91 of a year ago in this hall: a hot shooting night and a Real side that loses the ball late, as in their defeats to Hapoel and Efes. Any Real win makes our pick, overtime included.
- Predicted score
- 82:88
- Alternative
- 82:84
No. 08 · Why this pick wins
Our Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Real Madrid pick: Real Madrid win
Real Madrid win: why this pick wins
Why we back it
We think Real Madrid win. Maccabi's home games are played in Belgrade, far from their own crowd, so the home edge is smaller than usual, and they have just lost Lundberg, one of their main scorers. Real come in with three straight wins and a rotation that is deeper at every position, with Tavares the biggest presence inside. The line and our neutral-court rating both see Real at 62 to 68%, a clear favourite but not enough for a stake on an away team this early in the season.
Our probability60–66%
Our pickReal Madrid win
Odds1.51
Main scenario82:88
- Our scenario
- 82:88alternative 82:84
What would change our mind Tavares or Maledon missing from Real's roster would make us review the pick.
Odds and break-even, for reference
| Market | Odds | Break-even |
|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Tel Aviv win | 2.55 | 39.2% |
| Real Madrid win | 1.51 | 66.2% |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv +4.5 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Real Madrid −4.5 | 1.91 | 52.4% |
| Real Madrid +1.5 | 1.44 | 69.4% |
| Over 183.5 points | 1.93 | 51.8% |
| Under 183.5 points | 1.83 | 54.6% |
Odds snapshot 22 OCT 09:38 · no bookmaker names
No. 09 · Arguing against ourselves
What could beat our pick?
Why this could go wrong.
- Real Madrid have already lost three away games this season, in Dubai, at Efes and to Hapoel.
- Maccabi beat Real 92:91 in this same hall a year ago, on 22 October 2025.
- Our rating gives Real only 56% if Maccabi get the full home advantage of a EuroLeague arena.
- No official injury report for round 7 was out when we checked, so Real's lineup is not confirmed.
No. 10 · Editor’s call
Bet
Our bet: Real Madrid win at 1.51, a single. We expect 82:88; Maccabi play their home games in Belgrade and are without Lundberg.
Information only. No guarantees.18+Play responsibly
No. 11 · Update log
- Analysis published · our pick Real Madrid win, no bet
- Prediction updated · now a bet: Real Madrid win at 1.51 (earlier: the same pick, analysis only)
No. 12 · After the match
After full time this ticket shows what we said next to what happened. The record goes to the public tracker automatically.
Read next
- Our betReal Madrid to win, single
- EuroLeagueAnadolu Efes vs Beşiktaş prediction, 22 October
- EuroLeagueReal Madrid vs ASVEL prediction, 15 October
- TrackerEvery bet in one table
FAQ
What does Bet mean?
We expect this result and play it, as a single or as one leg of a double. It is logged in the tracker at the published odds.
How do you choose a pick?
We start from the market, then check a statistical model, named previews and our own scenario test against everything that moves the result: lineups, rest, motivation, style and team news. We publish when at least three of the four agree and the pick wins in the main scorelines. A warning sign, such as a back-up goalie or tired legs, moves us to a safer market or leaves the match as analysis only.
Can a prediction change after publishing?
No. The pick, odds and time are locked when published. Updates go into the log above.